The war in the Ukraine is about Oil

Based upon interactions here on Free Republic and various other sources, this war is a war over resources: Oil, Natural Gas, Water, Aluminum... as well as strategic buffering and traditional tyrant terrorizing.

To: gleeaikin Look at the Azov Natural Gas Preserves region, and then look at Russia’s Occupation Map. He has captured all the land mass of the preserve and all the access land to the underwater portion of that preserve.

Mariopol happens to be smack dab in the middle of it. All the shoreline of the Azov Sea West to just short of Odessa and then out to sea is the massive Azov Natural Gas Preserve.

119 posted on 3/29/2022, 4:13:40 AM by DoughtyOne (I pledge allegiance to the flag of the U S of A, and to the REPUBLIC for which it stands.)

The map on the right side, tells you all Russia wanted... Note the Southern Ukraine land grab.

Note the overlay from the land grab below. All land above this preserve, all land adjacent to the under sea portion of the Azov Natural Gas preserve...

LINK https://64.media.tumblr.com/b0de897e064daa66864fb2d3f06eef80/tumblr_n5k0yfhJmy1rasnq9o1_1280.png

The Russians weren’t even interested in western Ukraine until oil was found there. Their interest is simply in raping that country. Russia gets 60% of its revenues from oil exports. Europe gets 40% of their oil from Russia.

In 2012 massive oil and gas reserves were found in Crimea. Crimea signed a $10 billion exploration contracts with Shell and Chevron to develop the new found oil and gas fields. These oil and gas products would compete in Europe with Russia’s oil and gas, reducing Russia’s oil revenues, which we recall amount to 60% of their total GDP. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, cancelling the contracts with Shell and Chevron.

But Ukraine still had massive reserves in, you guessed it, Donetsk and Luhansk, and other areas East of the Dnieper River. In 2019, Energy Secretary Rick Perry visited Ukraine, and soon after Ukraine awarded exploration contracts to a consortium of U.S. oil companies. Again, these oil reserves would compete in Europe with Russian oil, so Putin is invading Ukraine to shut down this latest attempt to extract Ukrainian oil and sell it in competition with Russian oil.

This explanation makes more sense to me than the “Putin feels threatened by NATO expansion” excuses for the invasion.

If the Ukes allow some small region in the west to be its own republic, but the OIL belongs to Ukraine, do ya think Pootypoot would allow that? Nope.

--------------------------------------------------------------- https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4005408/posts?page=19#19

Hunter Biden pitched himself as expert in Russian oligarch targeted by FBI: Devine 3/30/2022, 8:43:16 AM · 19 of 19 gleeaikin to bitt; Kevmo I have already commented elsewhere at FR regarding Russia’s seizure of Crimea, and actions to undermine Donbas and other eastern areas of Ukraine. Petroleum and gas deposits were discovered in both those areas in 2012, exploration contracts had been signed with major oil companies, and then in 2014 Putin seized Crimea and made the surrounding offshore areas forbidden to Ukraine. The oil contracts were canceled. This explains why total distruction is being rained on the cities in those areas. Putin doesn’t give a shxx about the cities and the people he is killing. The treasure is underground.

Now we see another part of the resource wars. Until recently the aluminum ore, bauxite, was being imported to Ukraine from Guinea, and then processed into Aluminia. This was then shipped to Russia for manufacture of aluminum objects of general commerce. The link below explains a lot about this business, and also mentions Hunter Biden.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-rusal-guinea/rusals-guinea-bauxite-exports-grind-to-a-halt-amid-ukraine-crisis-idUSL5N2VV3JU

It becomes ever clearer that Putin’s complaint with Ukraine has little to do with mistreated Russian language people in the Ukrainian east, and a whole lot to do with access to and control of important resources.

I don’t think Putin is after a “formidable barrier” against NATO. He’s after the oil & gas.

Look at the Azov Natural Gas Preserves region, and then look at Russia’s Occupation Map. He has captured all the land mass of the preserve and all the access land to the underwater portion of that preserve.

Mariopol happens to be smack dab in the middle of it. All the shoreline of the Azov Sea West to just short of Odessa and then out to sea is the massive Azov Natural Gas Preserve.

Oil and gas reserves were discovered in the 3 places that have gotten the most attention from Russian jack boots. Putin needed a couple of years to organize his takeover of Crimea, and I remember seeing the reports of mercenaries from Russia moving into the Donbass to carry on their warfare back in 2014.

Nov. 2012 was right at the time oil/gas reserves in Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk had been discovered and oil companies were signing contracts to do exploration. No wonder Putin took over Crimea in 2014 and is now trying to take over the other two regions. It also explains why in 2014 he started sending in Mercenaries to east Ukraine to help enable them to defect from Ukraine.

gleeaikin searched for a Google page on this oiltopic. There are a lot of interesting articles to read here. I have not read them yet, but it appears there is probably a lot of petroleum to enable Europe to buy much of their needs from Ukraine rather than Russia.

At the very least, Putin has caused enough destruction in Ukraine, that any oil profits would have to go into rebuilding cities, rather than doing the kind of development that could make Ukraine an important modern European country. What a damn shame!!

https://www.google.com/search?q=Findings+of+oil+and+gas+in+Crimea+and+Donbass+region+around+2012&rlz=1CAJCUZ_enUS847&oq=Findings+of+oil+and+gas+in+Crimea+and+Donbass+region+around+2012&aqs=chrome..69i57.31411j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

What is most astonishing is the fact that so little has been mentioned about the whole Ukraine has petroleum reserves issue, and the places where they are constitute the precise main target of Putin’s massive attacks. He does not care about preserving the cities which he would if he was doing it for the poor ethnic Russians who are being treated so meanly by those nasty Ukrainians. Of course he does not care, what he wants is safely stored under ground. The heck with Ukrainian human beings. And this lack of humanity is reflected in so many consistently pro Putin posts. And their support of the Butcher of Moscow an insult to patriotic FReepers and Putin’s helpless Ukrainian victims.

This Feb. 2019 Forbes article clearly defines the great loss to Ukraine caused by Putin’s 2014 seizure of Crimea. Even if a plebecite should prove the people of Crimea prefer a totalitarian corruption ridden Russia to a corruption ridden Ukraine, at the very least the large “exclusion zone” shown in this article’s map should be reopened to Ukriane’s use and control regarding resources. An excellent sanction against Putin’s greed and cruelty.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/02/28/as-russia-closes-in-on-crimeas-energy-resources-what-is-next-for-ukraine/?sh=6aa8dbc529cd

Mum on Ukraine’s Security Wish List, Putin Instead Sends a Warlord to Mariupol 3/30/2022, 8:57:26 AM · 34 of 44 https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4050884/posts?page=34#34 gleeaikin to NorseViking; Kevmo; SoCal Pubbie; Williams; BiglyCommentary; rrrod; Meet the New Boss; All If Putin loves the people of the Ukraine south and east so much why is he flattening their cities. Oh, I guess it is because he is after the petroleum and gas reserves underground so he could care less about anything living or dead above ground. In 2012 reserved were found in the south and east, and exploration contracts signed with major oil companies. Then in 2014 Putin seized Crimea and began to destablize the Donbas area. Now he just wants to destroy all Ukraine life above those deposits. Thousands are being bussed out of the area. Who knows how many really want to go to Russia, and how many are faking it to just get away from being bombed.?

Another possibility might be providing a travel corrider between Crimea and west Russia. Something like the Danzig Corridor, or the Panama Canal Zone. In addition Ukraine must have its rights to drill for oil in the Black Sea restored. The oil is why Puting really wanted Crimea.

Toward the end of the video, before questions, he shows the map. If you don’t want to go through the whole thing basically everything to the east of the Dnieper river voted for the Russophile candidates, to the west the vote was for the Europhile.

The main takeaway is Ukraine is a very divided country, politically and ethnically. Diversity is not a strength in this instance.

I stopped watching once the questions started, the video is just too long.

I’m just pointing out what the Budapest Memorandum says and doesn’t say, and provided a link to the memo. Russia violated the agreement, not the US. Clearly, Putin is the bad guy here. He violated his agreement, invaded a sovereign nation, is murdering their people and destroying their cities, and will likely steal their resources and leave behind a humanitarian disaster if he isn’t stopped. There are moral and geopolitical arguments to be made for defending Ukraine against Russia, and who should/shouldn’t do it.

And that’s what the problem in the Donbass region was, at least according to the video. Basically ethnic Russians fighting ethnic Ukrainians. The government that gained power in 2014 demoted the Russian language as one of the official languages. IDK but the ethnic Russians were probably part of the 31% who didn’t want NATO.

Seems like this type of ethnic tension, especially if the minority perceives itself as being suppressed, is the root of a lot of conflicts. The Balkan Wars of the 1990’s are a great example.

You acknowledge that he violated the agreement.

Ireland signed that agreement, and would be well within their rights to send Irish soldiers to push back Russian soldiers to the borders in that agreement.

No big deal.

Britain signed it also. No big deal for them, right? But... THEY have nukes. So now allofasudden it’s a risking situation of nukes versus nukes. Not so big a deal because it’s just a bunch of idiot Europeans.

WE ALSO signed the agreement. But pantywaist appeasers allofasudden wanna start finding ways that we aren’t morally obligated to “respect the borders”.

We can easily say “Russia claims to have not violated the agreement by a ‘special military exercise’, so that’s what WE are doing, our own ‘special military exercise’ that really DOES respect those borders.”

This is an existential war for the Ukes. They HONORED that agreement which the Rukes have violated twice. So they would be well within their rights to pursue nukes, just like we did when we were in our existential war. Who are we to scold them for doing it, especially since we are betraying them?

Keeping this thing CONVENTIONAL rather than pushing the Ukes into a Nuke Corner is the right thing to do.

I really doubt this was about ethnic tension. It was about OIL. We didn’t hear shiite about ethnic tensions in Dumbass Donbass until after oil & gas were discovered.

Oil was discovered while it was Ukraine, so it should be Ukrainian oil & gas. If those ethnic whatevers wanna have their own ethnic republic, let them make enough waves to have a referendum without any Russian interference, but they shouldn’t get one drop of oil nor one liter of natural gas, because we all know this is about energy, not enthicity.

Yes the energy is a huge part of the equation with one of the largest gas fields in Europe located there and in Crimea. It was a major factor but there were others, mainly the proximity of NATO troops to Moscow. Whether true or not, Russia clearly believes that NATO is a threat and they have been saying so for many years. That’s why non-membership in NATO or other military alliances is one of their conditions:

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4050584/posts

When I worked at State, during the invasion of Crimea, we belived Russia was balking at the pipeline fees which made war with Ukraine more possible. We already had two breakaway provinces in Ukraine and fully expected Putin to advance to the River midway across that nation.

In future years we will hear about those fees Ukraine demanded as payment all this time for Russian Oil.... Bookmark this.

It was a major factor but there were others, mainly the proximity of NATO troops to Moscow.
***Estonia was in proximity to Moscow, why didn’t Vlad the Imploder invade them? Because they were part of NATO, that’s why. Bullies don’t pick on those who have protection.

Also, Estonia doesn’t have such yuge oil & gas reserves. Russia didn’t say much about Ukraine, even just plain ABANDONED their nukes there, when they were disintegrated. 3-4 years after that disintegration they sign the Budapest Memorandum. The Ukes HONOR that agreement, then oil is discovered and now allofasudden Vlad has a problem with supposed NATO sites being 200 miles closer to Moscow than they were before. What a pile of bullshit. This is about oil.

Well, sure, strength vs. weakness is part of the set of issues over there.

At the time they signed it they left a ton of extremely dangerous strength on the ground but the relatively weak Ukes didn’t wanna have anything to do with that nuke strength of bein’ capable of killing hundreds of millions of people. I kinda admire that weakness vs. strength thing in that context.

At the time we all signed that agreement, America was strong, Russia weak, Ukraine weak. It made sense to sign it for all 3. Fast forward 3 decades, no it did not make sense for Ukraine to sign it because they have been invaded twice in violation of that agreement and keeping those nukes woulda voided off that whole problem both times.

In 2012 when oil & gas were discovered there were very very very [do ya get that ‘very’ thing yet?] very few ethnic incidents over Dumnbass Donbass or the other supposedly ethnic regions.

In 2014 Vlad invaded, having stirred up trouble in those regions where the oil & gas were. Russia was strong again, Ukraine still weak and more importantly, America had some weird anti-American weakling jackass as prez.

In 2016 America did not have a weakling anti-America as prez, and sure enough, Vlad flowed like water along the line of least resistance, didn’t cause trouble over there. Ukes were weak.

In 2021 America once again had a weakling jackass as prez and Vlad invades again.

Yes, strength-vs-weakness analysis has much to reveal about what is going on over there. But it really still is about oil because if the land was worthless, Vlad woulda ignored it.

Whether true or not, Russia clearly believes that NATO is a threat and they have been saying so for many years. That’s why non-membership in NATO or other military alliances is one of their conditions

But Russian Nukes, ships, submarines, fighters and bombers, and thousands of troops in Kaliningrad is A-OK. Russian nukes inside Europe, threatening all of the surrounding European countries? Maybe we should demand Kaliningrad be demilitarized since it's not just adjacent, but "within our borders" and not contiguous with any Russian territory.

Right now, Putin has nuclear weapons in the Baltics (Kaliningrad). Russia is the ONLY country with nuclear weapons in the Baltics. Imagine for a moment the hysterical fit Putin would throw if NATO announced it was stationing nuclear missiles in Estonia or Latvia? Russia has threatened to station nuclear weapons in Crimea, and suggested they have already done so in reaction to our Aegis Ashore system in Poland (a defensive anti-missile system). If Russia takes Ukraine, is there any doubt they will station nuclear weapons there, as well as air and ground forces that will threaten NATO? Russia talks about NATO, Nazis, corruption and "existential threats", but it's all about the gas, oil and geopolitical influence. Energy, control and power. IMHO, obviously.

The problem with “agreements” by the USA is they carry no force of law as does a treaty. We learned this in 6th grade. The diplomats should have been aware of this in their negotiations. Guarantee a neutral Ukraine in exchange for security assurances and nukes.

If it were a treaty this whole situation would not happen. And these things are exactly what is being negotiated between the two now. Only now a lot of people are dead. And yes it would be much preferable that a skillet negotiator were President. Maybe someone whose initials are DJT.

The problem with “agreements” by the USA is they carry no force of law as does a treaty.
***Oh, sure they do. If we wanted to we could send whatever forces we want into that region. The Gulf of Tonkin was on much thinner grounds.

We learned this in 6th grade.
***Then the 6th graders are about to learn another set of lessons, perhaps. It would be the lessons that people who face a suitcase nuke in a Russian city suffer because their
@$$#0/e leader chose to OBVIOUSLY violate an agreement in their name.

The diplomats should have been aware of this in their negotiations.
***Do you suppose the diplomats are aware of the Uke nuke program right now? Ever wonder why the Ukes sent a missile into Russian territory, hmmmmmm?
https://nypost.com/2022/03/29/ukraine-missile-may-have-hit-military-camp-inside-russia/

Guarantee a neutral Ukraine in exchange for security assurances and nukes.
***Those assurances are worth less than their weight in toilet paper. We are pushing the Ukes into a nuke corner by not showing “respect” for their borders.

If it were a treaty this whole situation would not happen.
***When Vlad is backgrounded by a nuke plume above his favorite Ruke city, we’ll get back to you on this pantywaist appeasement approach.

And these things are exactly what is being negotiated between the two now.
***You may be right. Having the ability to send just one missile onto Russian territory could be enough to back off the Russians permanently. Where do YOU think the nuke demo should go off inside Russia, assuming there’s only maybe 5 or 6 suitcase nukes?

Only now a lot of people are dead.
***We are pushing the Ukes in their existential war into a nuke corner, where a helluva lot more people could be dead.

And yes it would be much preferable that a skillet negotiator were President.
***Skilled, I take it. When we did have a skilled negotiator, there were NO incidents with Vlad the Imploder. Imagine that.

Maybe someone whose initials are DJT.
***We’ll never get the libtards to own up to that.

It doesn’t seem reasonable or possible for Russia to occupy western Ukraine. They are going for independent ethnic Russian areas (some of which have petroleum and gas) in the east; that was one of their initial demands. Looking at the map every place Russia has boots on the ground is in the east.

The reality of Russian nukes and ships in Kaliningrad does not mean the Russians are not paranoid. There has been talk of this since the days of the Tea Party, and probably much earlier than that:

https://teapartyamerica.blogspot.com/2011/11/russian-paranoia.html

Paranoia may or may not have a logical basis, but it is important to realize it exists.

“Do you suppose the diplomats are aware of the Uke nuke program right now? Ever wonder why the Ukes sent a missile into Russian territory, hmmmmmm?”

This story was really strange. The initial Twitter post came from an organization which mapped military operations in Ukraine. The maps showed areas in Russia hit.

Here is my comment to the post https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/4050684/posts:

What’s really weird is if you go to the website listed at the top of the thread it shows where the explosions occurred.

Then go to Google Maps, look up the location, click on the name and then translate Russian into English. It is a chicken farm. Maybe munitions were hidden there.

Maybe a chicken pecked too hard on one of the primers?

And yes, I agree that Ukraine is being pushed into this situation. Posts made over the last three days on FR show that Turks are hopeful the negotiations they are mediating will lead to a peace agreement. Then some western source, often the US, keeps throwing cold water on the process.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.