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Inversion of key U.S. yield curve slice is a recession alarm
Reuters via Yahoo ^ | March 29, 2022 | by Chuck Mikolajczak and Karen Brettel

Posted on 03/29/2022 12:56:49 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer

NEW YORK, (Reuters) - A closely monitored section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted on Tuesday for the first time since September 2019, a reflection of market concerns that the Federal Reserve could tip the economy into recession as it battles soaring inflation.

For a brief moment, the yield on the two-year Treasury note was higher than that of the benchmark 10-year note . That part of the curve is viewed by many as a reliable signal that a recession could come in the next year or two.

The 2-year, 10-year spread briefly fell as low as minus 0.03 of a basis point, before bouncing back above zero to 5 basis points, according to data by Refinitiv.

While the brief inversion in August and early September 2019 was followed by a downturn in 2020, no one foresaw the closure of businesses and economic collapse due to the spread of COVID-19.

Investors are now concerned that the Federal Reserve will dent growth as it aggressively hikes rates to fight soaring inflation, with price pressures rising at the fastest pace in 40 years.

“The movements in the twos and the tens are a reflection that the market is growing nervous that the Fed may not be successful in fostering a soft landing," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.

(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: brandon; economy; inflation; recession; yieldcurve
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1 posted on 03/29/2022 12:56:49 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
viewed by many as a reliable signal that a recession could come in the next year or two.

Let's hope the Independents can add 2+2 and recognize that the Dems in any race do not deserve support.

2 posted on 03/29/2022 1:03:28 PM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

one year in, and the barnyard residue is up to our chin


3 posted on 03/29/2022 1:03:29 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (I pledge allegiance to the flag of the U S of A, and to the REPUBLIC for which it stands.)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

How about full-blown recession? China is locking southeast to covid meaning less consumer goods are shipped to the US.


4 posted on 03/29/2022 1:15:06 PM PDT by NorseViking
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

What will a Republican Congress do to reverse everything to pre Biden?


5 posted on 03/29/2022 1:15:42 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
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To: NorseViking

How about full-blown recession? China is locking southeast to covid meaning less consumer goods are shipped to the US.
————-
China’s GDP is a roaring 6 percent plus.has been for awhile.The US, 2 minus. Their sheer size of population, Yuan rate fixing( getting stronger by the day due to Potatoe heads sanctions) and the demand for Yuan increasing puts them in a growth (or not declining ) position.


6 posted on 03/29/2022 1:23:59 PM PDT by delta7
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To: TornadoAlley3

What will a Republican Congress do to reverse everything to pre Biden?
———
Nothing they can do, sanctions against Russia willmost likely not be lifted, the damage to the USD is irreversible. Congress can do nothing now the China/ Russia/ India /ME /SA alliance has been established. Experts ( including the Fed ) are bracing for a 50-60 percent drop in worldwide USD demand…..prepare for estimated 3-5 trillion USD dollars being returned to the US…..unheard of inflation, credit market decline, disrupted supply chains…fasten your seat belts.

China ,India, Russia, Saudi, ME nations, Iran, Iraq ( just announced) Turkey, South America, South Africa all jumping on board with the Ruble, Yuan, Rupee monetary trading alliance. In the works, our only hope is it takes longer than anticipated.


7 posted on 03/29/2022 1:38:57 PM PDT by delta7
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To: delta7

Yep, let’s say Biden is going to make it depression.


8 posted on 03/29/2022 1:40:49 PM PDT by NorseViking
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To: delta7

Forgot, there is an exodus occurring now in US bonds, securities…..means only one thing, drastically less $ .gov takes in, it is no coincidence Vegetable Head just put forth raising taxes on billionaires and ECash yesterday, interest rates rising ( mortgages hit 4.8 percent) , .gov debt is going to have much higher interest payments….fasten your seat belts.


9 posted on 03/29/2022 1:44:39 PM PDT by delta7
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To: delta7

Can you tell me how this will compare to the Obama years?


10 posted on 03/29/2022 1:48:44 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
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To: delta7

Federal Reserve to lend additional $1 trillion a day to large banks
Economy Mar 20, 2020 6:21 PM EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve moved with unprecedented force and speed Friday to pump huge amounts of cash into the financial system to ease disruptions that have escalated since the viral outbreak.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank said it will offer $1 trillion of overnight loans a day through the end of this month to large banks. That is in addition to $1 trillion in 14-day loans it is offering every week. …. The Fed is also buying Treasury bonds at a furious pace, and will soon run through the $500 billion in purchases it announced on Sunday. It is also accelerating its purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Most analysts expect they will buy more.

“The Fed has just worked with unprecedented speed,” said Steven Friedman, a former economist at the New York Fed and senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, an asset manager. “I think there will be no hesitation on their part about buying as many Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as necessary.”

All the Fed’s emergency steps are intended to pump cash into a financial system that has seen a spike in demand for dollars as investors unload Treasuries, municipal bonds, and other securities. With the economy likely in recession, banks, money market funds and other institutional investors are increasingly wary about holding securities that may lose value.”

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/federal-reserve-to-lend-additional-1-trillion-a-day-to-large-banks

Overnight loans are made as banks are not willing to lend to each other, a repeat of the 08 meltdown, very, very ominous news…trends, just before Covid hit, overnight loans hit 200 billion a night ( very fishy), now $1 trillion to be offered…..keep your eyes opened for unexplained bank mergers, best to get a month ( or more) into in cash.
I have already noticed a huge drop in cash amounts banks are willing to give account holders, the three that have reduced to $2000 at a time are Truist ( they just merged - BB and Suntrust, ), my local CU, and another ( forgot name). Reports I am receiving is there are many more.

Hint: read the article very, very carefully….get cash, bail-ins ( not bail outs) are a distinct possibility.


11 posted on 03/29/2022 2:00:11 PM PDT by delta7
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To: TornadoAlley3

Can you tell me how this will compare to the Obama years?
————————
A number 9 on the financial misery index. Thank you Joe. Get some cash, the bank limits for withdrawals is lessening ( observed).

For the nay sayers- during Nobama’s time I could withdraw $7-8000 in cash, I saw last Friday in one bank and one credit union, customers being limited to $2000 cash….if you don’t believe me, go to your bank and ask for $7K in cash, report back to us what they tell you.
You have been warned.


12 posted on 03/29/2022 2:07:00 PM PDT by delta7
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To: delta7

“Nothing they can do, sanctions against Russia willmost likely not be lifted, the damage to the USD is irreversible. Congress can do nothing now the China/ Russia/ India /ME /SA alliance has been established. “

Only someone with zero understanding of the role in world finance played by the mammoth and liquid US bond market would believe that foolishness.

The US Treasury market has no rival. And as a consequence neither does the dollar.


13 posted on 03/29/2022 2:13:55 PM PDT by Pelham (Q is short for quack )
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Another word salad headline.


14 posted on 03/29/2022 2:14:16 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: NorseViking

Yeah, I’ll be shocked if it’s just a recession and not full blown depression.


15 posted on 03/29/2022 2:16:00 PM PDT by DocRock
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To: delta7

I have to clarify the dated article I posted. The overnight loans hit close to one trillion FOR the anticipated Covid shutdowns, that figure dropped to less than 100 billion after the scam was over. Overnight loans are again rocketing upwards to record highs indicating a “ perceived” crisis.
Fact is, something ominous is developing in the banking sector. Research carefully, I had no idea the gravity of the situation until a banker explained it to me…he also stated financial institutions have been notified by the SEC on Mar 14th to perform emergency “ stress tests” on their holdings….the last time that happened was in 08 or 09.


16 posted on 03/29/2022 2:16:31 PM PDT by delta7
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To: Pelham

The US Treasury market has no rival. And as a consequence neither does the dollar.
———-
Good luck with that belief. Get back with us in another year.


17 posted on 03/29/2022 2:18:23 PM PDT by delta7
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To: delta7

The steep selloff in US government debt has put that market on course for its worst returns since 1949, Bank of America said last week. Investors have been ditching bonds in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive cycle of raising interest rates to combat high inflation. Meanwhile, the S&P 500, which was pushed into a correction earlier this year, has clawed back losses, trimming its decline to less than 4%.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-mike-novogratz-stocks-crypto-bond-selloff-galaxy-markets-2022-3


18 posted on 03/29/2022 2:25:04 PM PDT by delta7
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
Normally recessions start out as deflationary, and become inflationary as the government tries to print their way out of it.
This one is going in hot, with strong inflation. Will be historic on many levels, I think.
19 posted on 03/29/2022 2:56:03 PM PDT by Aut Pax Aut Bellum (What did Socialists use before candles? Electricity)
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To: Pelham
I don’t know what you mean by “no rival.” The U.S. government isn’t going to openly default on its debt, but it sure looks like it plans to engage in a “slow-motion default” through an erosion of purchasing power for the dollar.

A simple question here:

The REPORTED inflation rate in the U.S. is now approaching 8%. Who the hell is buying one-year U.S. Treasury debt at a current yield of less than 1.7%?

20 posted on 03/29/2022 3:59:45 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Mr. Potato Head ... Mr. Potato Head! Back doors are not secrets.")
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