Posted on 10/29/2020 10:09:25 AM PDT by bort
I have been posting daily reports on North Carolina early voting numbers. Based upon a review of the numbers, I think it is probable that Trump will win NC by double the 3.8 points he won by in 2016. Check out this golden nugget in the North Carolina early vote numbers:
2016—per CNN exit polling, 70% of the 2016 NC electorate was white, 30% non-white. Breaking this 70% white NC vote down by education: 37% of 2016 NC white voters had a college degree, 30% did not have a college degree.
2020—73% of the current early votes are by white voters (73% !). Even better, when this 73% is broken down by education, only 29.4% of the NC early vote electorate are whites with a college degree, while, get this.....44.4% are whites without a college degree.
Folks, we are seeing the same thing in Florida and Nevada. In Florida, Democrat turnout is highest in older, more working-class retiree counties that Trump won in 2016. In Nevada, rural counties are posting huge numbers.
Translation: Even polling firms that have numbers friendlier to Trump are not picking up this surge in non-college whites. And its going to get worse for Democrats, as disproportionate numbers of mail-in ballot requests came from more highly-educated counties like Wake and Durham, and these ballot returns have been drying up for days.
ping
Love it! Awesome news bort.
Thank you for these reports, they are fantastic!
From your post to election night tally’s ears. Go Trump! Go America!!
Good news for Tillis too. Trump coattails may pull him across the finish line against a scandal-ridden opponent.
I speculated a 7-8 point NC win for Trump in early October. Yet his campaign feels the need to be in NC today. Could be to help Tillis, but it might not be.
I really do not even consider the Tarheel State a swing state in this election. Between the registration numbers and Gary Johnson not taking 2.8% of the NC vote, I think Trump’s 3.8-point margin of victory in 2016 looks more like 7-8 points now. And because of that expected presidential margin I think Sen. Thom Tillis will keep his seat (I originally typed this before his married opponent admitted to sexting another military veteran’s “historically sexy” wife).
College educated or non-college educated....common sense is a huge factor, why would anyone vote for a anti-Constitution and socialist leaning Marxist for president and vice-president?
Most Americans who stop and think about that Socialist ticket, will vote for Freedom & our Constitution.
Trump won NC by 3.6% in 2016. The demographics in that state appear to be shifting left quickly. It may be a bit closer than some would like this time.
Are there House seats up for grabs in the Fayetteville area? Could he be helping Lindsey Graham get out vote in the Pee Dee area of SC?
Bottom line: Trump needs NC, FL, and AZ, and he hit all three within 24 hours. Now he will focus on the Rust Belt, with maybe another trip back to AZ/NV.
This number is shocking. The WWC are coming out like crazy. There is zero way Trump loses NC.
Thanks for the motivation to make these comparisons clearer on my website. I really, really need to do that.
Looks great!
Sure thing. BTW, I got this information from TargetSmart.
I saw an interesting graphic elsewhere - if “did not vote” in 2016 was a candidate, they would have won EVERY state except for Iowa and Minnesota
meaning: there is a HUGE untapped potential of people who irregularly come out to vote. And given “excitement” levels, those new voters will come out for Trump, not Biden.
Really hoping our beautiful state of NC goes to President Trump!!!
I asked you this about Florida, and you ran like a coward. So I will ask you this about North Carolina. Are you willing to stake your continued participation on this forum on the outcome of North Carolina?
If you are so confident in your doom and gloom predictions, this should be an easy bet for you to take.
The fact that you will probably run and hide again is demonstrable evidence that you are a concern troll.
Hope it helps Dan Forest, too. Enough of that crappy Demoncrat governor we’ve been saddled with.
He is going to be in Fayetteville, that means he is also reaching across to SC. This is to help House races and the Senate races (Tillis and Linda) in both states.
Notice where he is holding rallies -- yes they are states he needs, but his rallies are also in states where Rs down ticket need help. He is also holding rallies close to borders with nearby states.
Once he is done campaigning down ticket he is going to transition to the rust belt for the final push.
While I hate to invoke a past ghost we all despise -- Strategery….
Thanks for all you do.....
and don’t forget that a chunk of vote by mail ballots will be deemed invalid because they weren’t filled out properly.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.