I speculated a 7-8 point NC win for Trump in early October. Yet his campaign feels the need to be in NC today. Could be to help Tillis, but it might not be.
I really do not even consider the Tarheel State a swing state in this election. Between the registration numbers and Gary Johnson not taking 2.8% of the NC vote, I think Trump’s 3.8-point margin of victory in 2016 looks more like 7-8 points now. And because of that expected presidential margin I think Sen. Thom Tillis will keep his seat (I originally typed this before his married opponent admitted to sexting another military veteran’s “historically sexy” wife).
Trump won NC by 3.6% in 2016. The demographics in that state appear to be shifting left quickly. It may be a bit closer than some would like this time.
Are there House seats up for grabs in the Fayetteville area? Could he be helping Lindsey Graham get out vote in the Pee Dee area of SC?
Bottom line: Trump needs NC, FL, and AZ, and he hit all three within 24 hours. Now he will focus on the Rust Belt, with maybe another trip back to AZ/NV.
This number is shocking. The WWC are coming out like crazy. There is zero way Trump loses NC.
He is going to be in Fayetteville, that means he is also reaching across to SC. This is to help House races and the Senate races (Tillis and Linda) in both states.
Notice where he is holding rallies -- yes they are states he needs, but his rallies are also in states where Rs down ticket need help. He is also holding rallies close to borders with nearby states.
Once he is done campaigning down ticket he is going to transition to the rust belt for the final push.
While I hate to invoke a past ghost we all despise -- Strategery….