Published 2 hours ago Pollster Frank Luntz: If Trump defies polls again 'my profession is done'

Fox News ^ | 23 October 2020 | Caitlin McFall

[Magnatron]

Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Fox News’ Bret Baier on Thursday night, that his "profession is done" if President Trump wins re-election come Nov. 3, and proves the national polls wrong yet again.

“I hate to acknowledge it, because that's my industry — at least partially — but the public will have no faith. No confidence. Right now, the biggest issue is the trust deficit,” Luntz said in response to Baier asking how pollsters will fare if they are wrong in predicting the 2020 presidential election. “Pollsters did not do a good job in 2016. So, if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden had a 5- or 6-point lead, my profession is done."

National polls largely show Biden with a lead over Trump with two weeks until the presidential election.

Real Clear Politics, which pools together several national polls and takes the average, shows Biden up by 7.9 points, though in battleground states the former vice president is only up by 3.8 points – well within margin of error, which generally hovers around plus or minus four points.

Hillary Clinton was projected to win in 2016, with polling consistently similar to Biden’s.

FiveThirtyEight’s election project gave Clinton an 86 percent chance of winning during this point in the last presidential race. Biden is currently projected to win with an 88 percent probability.

Still, some polls appear to show a tighter race in their polling this time around.

The New York Times projected Clinton had a 91 percent chance of beating Trump two weeks prior to the 2016 election, but the Times is only projecting that Biden has a 50 percent chance of beating Trump.

But Luntz, a GOP pollster, still thinks that Biden will win the presidency after claiming that Trump won the second and final presidential debate Thursday.

[lapsus calami]

 

 

The world needs ditch diggers too, Frank.

 

 

[kevao]

For the honest pollsters who get it wrong, it’s not their fault. After five years of threats, abuse, belittling, physical assaults, and Cancel Culture, Trump voters cannot be blamed for lying to pollsters about their preferences.

So, Frank, blame your Leftist friends for destroying your industry.

[RushIsMyTeddyBear]

I just had a Dem worker call me. I said I was an “independent”. She hung up on me. I was very polite.

They only want what they want to hear.

[Quilla]

Please God.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

The problem is that they have become enamored of their "special sauce" on the polls.

Best method is the simplest.

Call random numbers in each state.

Ask them if they are going to vote and for who.

Say thank you for your time and hang up.

Keep going until you have 2000 answers on who they are going to vote for per state.

Calculate.

[Metrobank]

Who in their right mind if you are a Registered Republican would tell these pollsters how you are going to vote? Luntz and the rest of the pollsters just don’t understand the silent voting majority that is fed up with Dem Politics.

[joelt]

No Frank, You are done. 538 is done. Trafalger is solid. Rasmussen is good. Richard Barris at big data polls has very high standards.

[anton]

You will then know the intentions of people who answer spam calls on a phone and are willing to tell a stranger their otherwise secret vote.

Good luck with that.

[kevao]

I listened to a segment from Australia’s Sky News yesterday. They referenced a recent experimental poll taken of Trump *donors*. Forty percent of them told the pollster they were voting for Biden. LOL.

[Raymann]

There are still a few good pollsters out there. It just requires really knowing the demographics of a state and a willingness to do the grunt work to get samples from hard to poll groups.

Trafalgar, Big Data Poll, and Susquehanna are probably the best at it.

[CommerceComet]

Pollsters are going to have to change their methodology. When you're getting 1-2% response rate, a pollster has no assurance that the sample is representative of the population.

After 2016, most pollsters just tweaked their methodology when a complete overhaul was required. The models they are using in 2020 are essentially the same as the ones used in 2016.

Pollsters need to figure out a good way to get valid responses from the "shy" voter. Assuming I actually answered the phone for one of these pollsters, given the ability to link me to my response and the doxxing and worse threats being reported, I'd be reluctant to respond with an unpopular choice.

[Persevero]

Presumably the private inside polls are still accurate.

[Bullish]

Any time Putz Luntz comes on TV it’s an automatic channel change.

[rfp1234]

The world’s oldest profession?

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

Which is exactly what you get with any other polling method except you include people who are willing to spend a half hour with you on the phone. You then filter them by what ever standard you have selected to get the results you want.

[Bullish]

bye Frank, time to pack up your box full of belongings and head out the office door

Hey Frank, maybe you can get into janitorial or something, Dude.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Here’s a hint... I hang up on pollsters because I don’t have the time.

Guess who has the time for pollsters?

[tinyowl]

The sell the desired result right up until the result can be verified.

[gr8eman]

I think he’s wrong. The polling “profession” is called propaganda. The second oldest profession. It’ll never go out of style!

[Prince of Space]

Well I guess they’d better stop playing games and start doing legitimate polling. Then we’d all be happy.