Biden up by 7 points in Georgia: survey

The Hill ^ | 10/14/20 | JONATHAN EASLEY

[BlackFemaleArmyColonel]

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by 7 points in Georgia, according to a new poll.

The latest Quinnipiac University survey finds Biden's support at 51 percent and Trump's at 44 percent, with 4 percent of respondents undecided. Biden led by only 3 points in the same poll in September, before the first presidential debate and Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis.

Biden is now viewed favorably by 51 percent of Georgians, compared to 46 percent who view him negatively. Trump is underwater at 43 positive and 54 negative.

Trump will campaign in Georgia, which last went for the Democratic nominee in 1992, later this week.

"For Trump, 2016 is a distant memory,” said Quinnipiac pollster Tim Malloy. “Defeating Hillary Clinton by 5 points when the polls closed then, and now down 7 to Biden with three weeks to go. Warning lights are blinking red and alarms are going off in the Peach Tree state."

Quinnipiac’s polls have regularly found Biden with bigger leads than other pollsters have found. Trump and Biden are effectively tied in the RealClearPolitics average of Georgia surveys.

Election Day in Georgia will also have major consequences for which party controls the Senate, as there are two seats up for grabs this cycle.

Democrat Jon Ossoff leads Sen. David Perdue (R), 51 to 45 percent, in the new poll, up from a 1-point advantage in the prior survey.

Ossoff has a 10-point net positive favorability rating, while Perdue is underwater by 3 points.

And Democrat Raphael Warnock leads the big field of contenders in the special election race to replace former Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.).

Warnock has 41 percent support, followed by Rep. Doug Collins (R) at 22 percent and Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) at 20 percent. If no candidate reaches more than 50 percent on Election...

[GAHeel]

It’s not just % it’s where the samples are. Guarantee they did not sample adequately north and south GA.they did this in 16.

[centurion316]

Go to people’s pundit

[jmaroneps37]

Sure he is. Ha ha ha go away fakes. Which part did the respondents like the most, the fact that they aren’t really better off or that they are not part of the 34 point enthusiasm gap in Trump’s favor. Hey maybe it was the high energy Grandpa Groundhog shows at his 20,000 supporters rallies in Atlanta.

[cdcdawg]

I imagine that inside of I-285, that is probably about right; Biden might be up by even more than that. He’s probably also leading in Athens, GA and in Columbus, GA. Why don’t they just say that he’s up by 70,000,000 points everywhere? The Democrat base won’t know the difference, and Never Trumper Republicans can hand-wring to that.

[Brookhaven]

“Trump won GA by 5.7 points,”

There were two anomalies in 2016: Gwinnett & Cobb counties.

Two counties on the north side of Atlanta, together they contain 28% of the population of the state. They are GOP counties and have been for 20 years.

In 2016 they voted for Hillary. Yet, in all other respects, they remain Republican counties. The Democrats are not making inroads locally.

I believe the 2016 Hillary vote in those counties was caused by the scare tactics used against Trump. Now that voters have had four years of Trump and seen how he governs, many of those 2016 Hillary voters will return to their normal GOP voting pattern.

But note that even with the Gwinnett & Cobb anomalies, Trump still won the state by 5.7%

The other thing people don’t take into account in GA is the black vote. GA is 30% black. When there is a black person on the ballot (like the 2018 governor’s race) they turn out in mass and make the statewide races close. But when there isn’t, they don’t.

2018 Gov race: 50% vs 49%
2014 Gov race: 53% vs 45%

The difference between these two races is there was a black candidate running for governor in 2018, and thus a huge black turnout.

There is no statewide black candidate running. Whether Kamala’s presence on the ticket will trigger a huge black turnout is unknown, but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of enthusiasm for her in the black community.

With Gwinnett & Cobb back to voting their normal GOP voting pattern, and a normal black turnout, Trump should win the state handily.

[Lazamataz]

What a bunch of bushlips!

[Lazamataz]

I live in the Great State of Georgia.

This poll is such crap that it could be used as fertilizer.

[Lazamataz]

If you believe this poll, you DESERVE to be depressed. LOL!

[SunkenCiv]

I wholeheartedly agree.

[M Kehoe]

Hi.

According to the polls, Slo’ Joe and Heels up Harris are ahead in TX and FL too.

And I’m the queen of England.

5.56mm

[MrChips]

The last Trafalgar poll for GA. was Trump 49.8%, Biden 43.5%. Folks, the Very reliable Trafalgar Group is BASED IN ATLANTA!!!

[Coop]

There were two anomalies in 2016: Gwinnett & Cobb counties.

You call them anomalies. Others call them Trump struggling with suburban voters.

There is no statewide black candidate running.

There is. Raphael Warnock, a pro abortion pastor, is running for Senate in GA. And I recall seeing on some other threads that, unlike in other states, the black vote is up in GA so far.