Study released today: Coronavirus 4.8% Mortality Rate

Medrxiv.org ^ | Medrxiv.org

[BusterDog]

4.8% fatality rate.

Analysis of 50,404 patients

“According to Meta-analysis, among the clinical characteristics of patients with 2019-nCoV infection, the incidence of fever is 90.9% , the incidence of cough is 70.8%, and the incidence of muscle soreness or fatigue is 41%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 14.8%, the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%, the proportion of severe cases in all infected cases was 21.3%, and the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1

[lightman]

To put it in perspective, life has a 100% mortality rate.

[Tellurian]

For what it's worth, per John Hopkins

Locale ....................deaths : cases ... %

World wide ............ 2699 : 80146 ... 3.4%

China .................... 2664 : 77658 ... 3.4%
Iran ........................... 12 : 61 ....... 19.7%
Italy ............................ 7 : 229 ....... 3.1%
S.Korea ...................... 8 : 893 ...... 0.9%
Japan .......................... 1 : 159 ...... 0.6%
Diamond Princess ....... 3 : 691(?) .. 0.4%
Phillipines .................... 1 : 3 ......... 33.3%
Hong Kong ................. 2 : 81 ......... 2.5%
Taiwan ........................ 1 : 30 ........ 3.3%
France ........................ 1 : 12 ........ 8.3%

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[ChildOfThe60s]

A year ago January I got the flu. I was and am in good health and it was very sudden so I got to the hospital later than I needed to. I nearly died, my kidneys were shutting down. I felt like I had a mild chest cold and then in 36 hours everything went south. Wow!

Had I not had immediate access to high quality, modern medical care I would not be here now regaling you with my pithy wisdom. After 4 days I was out of the hospital and 3 weeks later 90%+ recovered. Imagine the outcome had I lived in China?

This thing worries me considerably, but I also wonder how to factor in the difference in health, environment and access to decent medical care.

I do know this, based on what is happening to the supply lines of the companies and product lines I sell, I am likely to go broke before the virus gets me.

People in this country have no real understanding of how supply lines and distribution are being affected. They think they do, but they are very, very wrong. No one inventories much anymore. It is all JIT. So things can dry up mighty fast.

[Alas Babylon!]

Well, there WAS a hookah raid in Germany last week...

[DoughtyOne]

COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data

File XLSX

File XLS

[CodeToad]

4.8% for third-world medicine actually isn’t all that bad.

It will be much lower outside of the illegal alien population.

[bitt]

p

[Pocketdoor]

7 years old... From 2013... At least the first two links... I didn’t bother with the rest.

[Secret Agent Man]

Yeah they marvel at a ‘hospital’ going up in 8 days but its just a warehouse to house dying people that will spread the disease around to everyone in there.

[grey_whiskers]

Huh. You really think China’s cleaned itself up since then?

[ETCM]

That is deaths from Pneumonia and Flu as a percentage of total deaths in a particular week. The mortality from influenza and influenza related pneumonia is about 0.1%.

[Svartalfiar]

Based on fatalities vs cases that have run the full course of infection I get ≈9.5% fatalities, if only 21.3% of the cases are severe, that would give a net fatality rate of ≈2%. <>

Huh? Why would the fatality rate only apply to the severe cases? If you have a 10% fatality rate, and 20% of cases are currently severe, a more logical conclusion is that 50% of those severe cases will become fatalities.

[Svartalfiar]

Actually, the previous numbers were 1%-2%. This is 2 times worse than those numbers.

Advise.?

Actually, the previous numbers were 24% (when I started following this news), and slowly down to 9.5% as China pushed out more fake numbers.

This study supposedly comes from 50M patients, yet, according to the official Johns Hopkins numbers, there's only been 27M recoveries, and 2700 deaths? (Fatality rate of 8.9%, not 4.8%.) So that means this study looked at an additional 20M patients who are currently infected and haven't died nor recovered, so how does it include them in the mortality rate? They can't predict the future, so they just lumped them all in as recovered? Even though around 2000 of them will likely die?

[Svartalfiar]

THIS is a fantastic question and, to me, is evidence that China is massively under-reporting the numbers here.

We know almost nothing about the denominator. I simply take the Chinese numbers for granted at this point, but the number of cases could be a lot higher.

It's been a while, but we can extrapolate a (probably) somewhat more accurate number using the tencent leaked data from a couple weeks ago. I forget the exact numbers, but back then a major Chinese site posted numbers that were way different from the official ones for a very short time, and seemed much more like the real numbers based on China's locking down cities and other reactions to the virus. China's massive population has about 20M deaths per day (7MM per year), so why would they quarantine a major industrial city over (at the time) a couple hundred deaths (officially)?

Those numbers had half the number of recoveries, and seventy times the number of dead. Using that on the current official Chinese numbers, we get China to have around 186M deaths, and just under 14M recoveries. Giving us a possible fatality rate of 93%. Even if we don't halve the recoveries, we're still at 87% mortality.

[Svartalfiar]

It says "Methods: PubMed,Cochrane Library,Embase and other databases were searched. Some studies on the clinical characteristics of 2019-nCoV infection were collected for Meta-analysis"

If all they did was republish the results of other studies then we should see other studies with similar numbers. I have not seen such studies, but I have not looked around a lot.

Even if they did only republish other studies, that still doesn't explain how they came up with an additional 20M recoveries that haven't happened yet? Did they take these other studies and just add all the numbers together? Throw darts at the wall?

The official-est numbers as coming from Johns Hopkins only has 30M cases resolved (27600 recoveries and 2700 deaths).

[Pocketdoor]

I went back and read the first one. Extremely extremely gross. Mostly murdered girls... So sad. Thanks for posting. I’ll read the others later.

[familyop]

Here’s some info about the server, cba123. It’s not peer reviewed, yet, but it’s still very interesting. Thanks, BusterDog!

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/about-medrxiv
“medRxiv was founded by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL), a not-for-profit research and educational institution, Yale University, and BMJ, a global healthcare knowledge provider.”

[Fury]

Re:26 - best post of the thread. Thanks.

[RomanSoldier19]

Ok thats dif

[billyboy15]

“The economy will take a big hit on this that will be blamed on Trump.”

They can try but the only morons who will buy into that nonsence are the Lefty loons who would never vote for him anyway.

Media credibility is shot and as it applies to any reporting on Trump the credibility is non existent.

Trumps vulnerability lies in how the outbreak here is handled but not in the fact the virus exists.