Study released today: Coronavirus 4.8% Mortality Rate

Medrxiv.org ^ | Medrxiv.org

[BusterDog]

4.8% fatality rate.

Analysis of 50,404 patients

“According to Meta-analysis, among the clinical characteristics of patients with 2019-nCoV infection, the incidence of fever is 90.9% , the incidence of cough is 70.8%, and the incidence of muscle soreness or fatigue is 41%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 14.8%, the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%, the proportion of severe cases in all infected cases was 21.3%, and the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1

[cba123]

What is Medrxiv.org?

[JonPreston]

4.8% fatality rate.

Stop it. I had the flu in 1972 and there is no way this is true.

[null and void]

Actual data? Be still my heart!

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[BRL]

I would be interested in how this skews towards people who already have lung problems.

[Mr. Blond]

Fear mongering drives down markets, lay investors scared into selling off. Now the hard numbers come out, institutional investors ride their bargains to new highs as relief sweeps the markets.

[surroundedbyblue]

If this is true this thing is a monster

[Secret Agent Man]

Consider this is mostly, almost all asian deaths. They are more prone to have serious cases and die from this than those with european genetics. So this is a significant factor in why the current death rate is higher.

[Paladin2]

How did the demographics of these 50k peeps fit the demos of various countries?

Whatta bout numerical analysis of how contagious it is?

[calenel]

Where do they get the 50k resolved cases for the study?

[Paladin2]

“...ride their bargains to new highs as relief sweeps the markets.”

Nice crystal ball you have there.

When will this rising tide start happening?

[Ken H]

I know as much or little as everyone else about the coronavirus epidemic, but this triggers my BS meter.

[Jane Long]

Ping.

[ImJustAnotherOkie]

Iran’s rate was 1 in 5 or 20%.

That may be skewing the results.

[null and void]

Based on fatalities vs cases that have run the full course of infection I get ≈9.5% fatalities, if only 21.3% of the cases are severe, that would give a net fatality rate of ≈2%.

[proust]

Why so?

[9YearLurker]

Hard to trust the numbers that mostly come from China.

In general only a fifth of the cases are severe. With modern medicine that isn’t overwhelmed only a tenth of those die. Without modern medicine most of that fifth die.

[Gideon7]

It might also be related to cultural factors, e.g., lack of sanitary conditions.

I’d be curious to know the mortality rate in Japan compared to China.

[Black Agnes]

I’ve been assured this is just panic to crash the market.

This is no worse than the common cold!

[null and void]

Where do they get the 50k resolved cases for the study?

They took the total number of reported survivors 25,351 and doubled it?