[cba123]

What is Medrxiv.org?

[JonPreston]

4.8% fatality rate.

Stop it. I had the flu in 1972 and there is no way this is true.

[null and void]

Actual data? Be still my heart!

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[BRL]

I would be interested in how this skews towards people who already have lung problems.

[Mr. Blond]

Fear mongering drives down markets, lay investors scared into selling off. Now the hard numbers come out, institutional investors ride their bargains to new highs as relief sweeps the markets.

[surroundedbyblue]

If this is true this thing is a monster

[Secret Agent Man]

Consider this is mostly, almost all asian deaths. They are more prone to have serious cases and die from this than those with european genetics. So this is a significant factor in why the current death rate is higher.

[Paladin2]

How did the demographics of these 50k peeps fit the demos of various countries?

Whatta bout numerical analysis of how contagious it is?

[calenel]

Where do they get the 50k resolved cases for the study?

[Ken H]

I know as much or little as everyone else about the coronavirus epidemic, but this triggers my BS meter.

[Jane Long]

Ping.

[ImJustAnotherOkie]

Iran’s rate was 1 in 5 or 20%.

That may be skewing the results.

[9YearLurker]

Hard to trust the numbers that mostly come from China.

In general only a fifth of the cases are severe. With modern medicine that isn’t overwhelmed only a tenth of those die. Without modern medicine most of that fifth die.

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks... good info.

[sauropod]

.

[1FreeAmerican]

Mortatility rate in China is 3.4% Per WHO. 2.4% elsewhere as an average.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200224-sitrep-35-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1ac4218d_2

[Reno89519]

I don’t believe that low number. The reports of whole families dying run counter.

[Socon-Econ]

What do we really know about the true denominator— the number of cases? Deaths are a known entity that almost always gets recorded. But how many people got a mild case and recovered without ever seeing a doctor, thinking they had a bad cold, not wanting to pay a doctor bill, fearing quarantine, etc.?

[RomanSoldier19]

6.8% for flu

The percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 6.8%, below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%. Pediatric Deaths 14 influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2019-2020 season were reported this week. The total for the season is 92. All data are preliminary and may change as more reports are received. A description of the CDC influenza surveillance system, including methodology and detailed descriptions of each data component is available on the surveillance methods page.
Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Re…
www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

[Mariner]

I think those are numbers for those who show up sick, seeking care.

Still, if true it will be talked and written about hundreds of years from now.

“the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%”

95% of those who get sick get pneumonia. 5% of those who get sick, die. 20%+ in ICU.