Posted on 10/29/2018 3:14:03 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
in 7 Chance Democrats win control (86.4%) 1 in 7 Chance Republicans keep
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Since the democrats vote on the seventh of November, it is possible, Nate.
5.56mm
I would be thrilled beyond belief to do that.
Good post. Makes sense. I hope you are right.
Thank you I really appreciate that. (:
But if I’m wrong I will gladly admit it.
I’ve found in life there is no shame whatsoever in thinking big its what this country was built on Trump, Reagan etc. are prime examples of that weather you agree with them or not.
I think your prediction is spot in the long run - the Demcrats’ electoral prospects are looking bleak going out 10 or 20 years if they continue as they are, and if Republicans follow Trump’s lead.
But in the short run (the midterms) there are structural limitations to how many house seats Republicans can flip, and how many they can defend in Democrat strongholds.
Most of the pro Trump districts are already held by Republicans, which they have to defend just to hold the majority in the house. Most of the Democrat held seats subject to a credible challenge from a Republican are in Democrat strongholds.
The result is that even with a red wave and favorable long term trends for Republicans, there are severe limitations to how many seats Republicans can flip vs how many Democrats can flip in 2018.
I think it will be very close to what LS is predicting based on registrations and early voting patterns - Republican net loss around 9, worst case 14, but not the 23 the Dems need to take the majority.
I will be thrilled if the Republicans hold the majority in the house, just as I was thrilled with Trump’s 310 electoral college votes in 2016 (which Larry pretty much nailed).
Didn’t he all but guarantee that Hillary would win?
you have an excellent analysis here of vulnerable house seats. i wish you accuracy on the downside for the gop, and i am hoping that all surprises are pro-trump surprises.
It should be noted that this is a lower chance than he was giving Hillary this time two years ago.
Uh, ok.
Take away the zeroes and he just might be onto something.
One vulnerable seat I failed to mention, MN-2 Conservative Jason Lewis vs. Rich Lesbian. We need to hold that one. Also Leonard Lance in NJ but I think he’ll be ok.
For surprises, MN-7, Moderate Democrat in a strongly GOP seat Collin Peterson could be upset.
We have a (rare for this year) well funded challenger to PA Rat Matt Cartwright in district Trump carried and as redrawn a lot of voters are new for Cartwright. He’s up in the polls though.
NM-1 open rat seat looks competitive but it’s a tough one to win.
I didn’t mention NH-1, that’s open rat seat pickup chance, GOP down 2 in a recent poll, Black Republican. I also didn’t mention AZ-1 a potential defeat of a rat, GOP candidate leads in her internal polls but I’m a little skeptical. Neither of those would be real surprises though since they are regarded as in play.
Scum like Nate Silver are salivating claiming near 100 GOP seats are at risk but I don’t see any upsets in those “likely Republican” races.
Silver seems to have pretty much nailed it. As did Cook Political Report.
In the future, you boost to 90% the chance of any given Dem winning their race if it goes to down to a “recount.”
derp
“They will be cheating with the voting more than ever”
Coming back to this thread in the aftermath.
You were dead on.
Thanks, sadly that is what essentially what happened
Nate had the inside dope on the Steal.
He’s still a POS!!
Voting means nothing. They will cheat cheat cheat.
You’re right - they always do. Too bad we play by the rules. Infuriating and why the heck are the doggone Clintons still around?!
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