you have an excellent analysis here of vulnerable house seats. i wish you accuracy on the downside for the gop, and i am hoping that all surprises are pro-trump surprises.
One vulnerable seat I failed to mention, MN-2 Conservative Jason Lewis vs. Rich Lesbian. We need to hold that one. Also Leonard Lance in NJ but I think he’ll be ok.
For surprises, MN-7, Moderate Democrat in a strongly GOP seat Collin Peterson could be upset.
We have a (rare for this year) well funded challenger to PA Rat Matt Cartwright in district Trump carried and as redrawn a lot of voters are new for Cartwright. He’s up in the polls though.
NM-1 open rat seat looks competitive but it’s a tough one to win.
I didn’t mention NH-1, that’s open rat seat pickup chance, GOP down 2 in a recent poll, Black Republican. I also didn’t mention AZ-1 a potential defeat of a rat, GOP candidate leads in her internal polls but I’m a little skeptical. Neither of those would be real surprises though since they are regarded as in play.
Scum like Nate Silver are salivating claiming near 100 GOP seats are at risk but I don’t see any upsets in those “likely Republican” races.