Posted on 10/29/2018 3:14:03 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
in 7 Chance Democrats win control (86.4%) 1 in 7 Chance Republicans keep
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
And dont forget Hillary has a 95% chance of winning too lil Natie.
IDTS
Nate is worse than a coin toss.
And there were pollsters who said POTUS would win. Just not Nate. Check out our own Larry Schweikart, Joel Pollak, the USC/LA Times tracking poll and the Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP tracking poll.
Here are a couple others: https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2016/11/10/here-are-3-people-who-correctly-predicted-donald-trump-would-win-the-election
The problem with 538 is they use polling to base their “reasoning”.. but they don’t bother to throw away stupid polls... same thing with RCP... every so often in 16 and here in 18, some poll so far out of the norm shows up.. showing a D up 10 or 15 where there is no way in hell its right, but they use in their RCP averages.. and Nate uses them too.,
These big stupid polls aren’t accidents, they are intentional, and show up to throw off the rolling averages etc.
18 polls are off just like 16 were.. and largely for the same reason... what the pollsters consider “likely” voters. If you haven’t voted recently, you are filtered out as UNLIKELY... Well guess what? Trump was attracting those disenfranchised and “unlikely” voters in huge numbers... and the pollsters were filtering them out.
18 is going to have the same problem... Kavanaugh angered the casual middle... they aren’t regular voters, largely may be apolitical, and certainly may not be hugely fond of the GOP.. but you better believe they are going to show up to punish the Dems for their actions...
Up until Kavanaugh, the Dems were sitting on an easy take of the house, due to an apathetic right and middle.. post Kavanaugh? No chance in hell... Obviously next tuesday night we know for certain... but there is one thing you can’t do in US politics and that’s anger the middle.... And the Dems angered the middle in a way they haven’t been in a LONG LONG TIME.. and don’t seem to realize what they have done..
I think he’s raising the percentage, then betting against himself.
92% Hillary to 8% Trump chances.
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Whatever happened to that fellow Mr.Trump (the skyscraper builder guy, you know.) I didn’t follow the results but he obviously lost.
Does President Hillary Clinton even remember him now? Like we forgot Mondale, Dukakis or James Stockdale who ran for V.P. with H. Ross Perot.
Boy, those pollsters have it all down to a science thanks to modern computers.
I sent in my absentee ballot for straight GOP here but this means I guess it was a waste of stamps.
Nate Silver... a dreaming, steaming, TURD.
It was also said the same about this year’s Red Soxs until late last night.
So this means the pubbies are pretty much a lock to win the House and Senate.
"I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve." - Admiral Isoroku Yamaomoto
This is the last gasp. They will be cheating with the voting more than ever. There is a chance they have enough people in place to pull it off. We must vote!!!
He is an idiot. He said that Hillary had an 80% chance to win. And he said that Trump would win the popular vote and Hillary the electoral college.
RCP already hat the GOP picking up 3 Senate seats. No one thought the Democrats would win the Senate.
Nate’s in for another Red Awakening!
Nate declared Trump would lose SEVEN times. He’s a joke.
The Republicans lose the House, we are disappointed but we soldier on.
The Democrats don’t win the House, they are beyond redemption and bordering on suicide.
The ONLY way LIEberal Demonrats win on November 6 is if Real Americans don’t vote!
JOBS NOT MOBS!
VOTE REPUBLICAN!
I put them at only 45% to steal the House. My most pessimistic forecast doesn’t see them talking more than a narrow majority, I can’t see them reaching 230 under any circumstances.
If he really thinks McCrapskul is the favorite (she’s trailed, narrowly but consistently from the jump) and Donnelly is 2-1 than he’s forking nuts.
Rather than %, where do you see 24 flips? (I’m not going with 25 in case Paulsen in MN offsets the other flip we’re getting there).
I can’t get past 15, even giving Ds the benefit of the doubt.
Nate Silver is trash without access to internal polling from Obama.
Strangely, we took the polling data for Marist, and they actually do good actual polling. We just “normalized” it for accurate sampling. The way oversampled D’s. Turns out that if you did it correctly, we got closer than any polling outfit. Were only off by .1 in 3 states.
It’s not the data. It’s the interpretation.
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