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Lets see, just spitballing here

Current seats (including R vacancies) 240

MN, gain 2 lose 1, 241

PA: Lamb beats Rothfus but offset by open seat gain. 2 other certain losses. 2 other possible losses (Dent seat and Fitzpatrick). I think Fitz wins but lets give them both so -4, 237

AZ, -1, 236

CA, Lose Issa seat, Several other seats at risk but I’m most worried about Knight so lets say -2, 234

CO, Coffman -1, 233

FL, I think we hold 26 and 27 but for this excessive let’s give the rats 27, 232

IL, they are targeting Roskam and Bost, I think Roskam wins but lets give them that one, 231

IA, Blum looks 50/50 now, most important race in the country maybe, let’s give it to them, I don’t believe Young loses, or King despite the long knives. -1, 230

KS, Yoder, -1 229

KY, I never thought Barr would lose, can’t see it

MI, 2 seats at risk, I think we hold them but let’s say rats win the open seat, 228

MT, lots of media polls showing a tie, no

NE, Bacon was saved when the Berniebot won the rat primary

NV, let’s say the rats hold their open seats

NJ, 1 certain loss. District 11 vulnerable, I don’t see it. but let’s say -2, 226

NM, Open seat vulnerable, close polls, but come on, that would be #240+ for the rats, I don’t think so.

NY, Tenney most vulnerable. Faso could still lose, I don’t think so but let’s give them both. 224

Maine, GOP hold

NC, doesn’t look like rats will gain

OH, ditto

Texas, tritto

Utah, Love vulnerable, I think not but let’s go nuts and give it to them, -1 223

WA State, the one race there looks like a GOP hold

West Virginia, very important race, the fake populist dem trails, GOP hold.

VA, Comstock is a goner I wager. 222

Let me go ahead and give them Young in Iowa, 221

So they need 4 more with this PESSIMISTIC “small poo wave” projection, a lot of potential losses but I’m not betting rats do that well. CA fraud machine probably their best bet to go over the top.

A rosy projection has us holding 233 (-7 net).

The median would be 227 R.