Lets see, just spitballing here
Current seats (including R vacancies) 240
MN, gain 2 lose 1, 241
PA: Lamb beats Rothfus but offset by open seat gain. 2 other certain losses. 2 other possible losses (Dent seat and Fitzpatrick). I think Fitz wins but lets give them both so -4, 237
AZ, -1, 236
CA, Lose Issa seat, Several other seats at risk but I’m most worried about Knight so lets say -2, 234
CO, Coffman -1, 233
FL, I think we hold 26 and 27 but for this excessive let’s give the rats 27, 232
IL, they are targeting Roskam and Bost, I think Roskam wins but lets give them that one, 231
IA, Blum looks 50/50 now, most important race in the country maybe, let’s give it to them, I don’t believe Young loses, or King despite the long knives. -1, 230
KS, Yoder, -1 229
KY, I never thought Barr would lose, can’t see it
MI, 2 seats at risk, I think we hold them but let’s say rats win the open seat, 228
MT, lots of media polls showing a tie, no
NE, Bacon was saved when the Berniebot won the rat primary
NV, let’s say the rats hold their open seats
NJ, 1 certain loss. District 11 vulnerable, I don’t see it. but let’s say -2, 226
NM, Open seat vulnerable, close polls, but come on, that would be #240+ for the rats, I don’t think so.
NY, Tenney most vulnerable. Faso could still lose, I don’t think so but let’s give them both. 224
Maine, GOP hold
NC, doesn’t look like rats will gain
OH, ditto
Texas, tritto
Utah, Love vulnerable, I think not but let’s go nuts and give it to them, -1 223
WA State, the one race there looks like a GOP hold
West Virginia, very important race, the fake populist dem trails, GOP hold.
VA, Comstock is a goner I wager. 222
Let me go ahead and give them Young in Iowa, 221
So they need 4 more with this PESSIMISTIC “small poo wave” projection, a lot of potential losses but I’m not betting rats do that well. CA fraud machine probably their best bet to go over the top.
A rosy projection has us holding 233 (-7 net).
The median would be 227 R.
Pretty much where I have it.
Ok, some “discussion” info. Can’t say with who, but NV GOP thinks they will not only flip NV3 but also 4 based on current good returns there.
AZ1 still in contention. AZ2 (McSally) is not.
Hearing that NO NY seat will fall (I had one going); Newt said that a “GOP bigwig” told him we’d hold 13/14 CA seats.
Yoder gone, probably Comstock and Coffman, plus three in PA and two in NJ.
That’s about it. We will old the 2 seats at risk in OH, the 2 in NC, all three in TX-—yes Sessions is on the bubble-—but a big turnout there for Abbott will help. Blum will old. Bishop will hold in MI, maybe lose Epstein, but not certain. Say we lose one FL seat. Both IL seats ok. People tell me Ru Paul’s seat in WI is safe.
So that puts me at -10, with at least +2 in MN, but maybe lose Paulsen for net +1=9.
Where do they find the other seats? If we flip even one NV seat it’s out of reach.
Never bought into the Bluewave at all.
As a matter of fact I’ve boldly predicted all year not only maintaining both houses but also huge increases in both chambers.
But I do believe that civil war within the GOP is brewing and that Willard Mitt Romney,will be a core leader in it.
you have an excellent analysis here of vulnerable house seats. i wish you accuracy on the downside for the gop, and i am hoping that all surprises are pro-trump surprises.