The problem with 538 is they use polling to base their “reasoning”.. but they don’t bother to throw away stupid polls... same thing with RCP... every so often in 16 and here in 18, some poll so far out of the norm shows up.. showing a D up 10 or 15 where there is no way in hell its right, but they use in their RCP averages.. and Nate uses them too.,
These big stupid polls aren’t accidents, they are intentional, and show up to throw off the rolling averages etc.
18 polls are off just like 16 were.. and largely for the same reason... what the pollsters consider “likely” voters. If you haven’t voted recently, you are filtered out as UNLIKELY... Well guess what? Trump was attracting those disenfranchised and “unlikely” voters in huge numbers... and the pollsters were filtering them out.
18 is going to have the same problem... Kavanaugh angered the casual middle... they aren’t regular voters, largely may be apolitical, and certainly may not be hugely fond of the GOP.. but you better believe they are going to show up to punish the Dems for their actions...
Up until Kavanaugh, the Dems were sitting on an easy take of the house, due to an apathetic right and middle.. post Kavanaugh? No chance in hell... Obviously next tuesday night we know for certain... but there is one thing you can’t do in US politics and that’s anger the middle.... And the Dems angered the middle in a way they haven’t been in a LONG LONG TIME.. and don’t seem to realize what they have done..
"I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve." - Admiral Isoroku Yamaomoto