I put them at only 45% to steal the House. My most pessimistic forecast doesn’t see them talking more than a narrow majority, I can’t see them reaching 230 under any circumstances.
If he really thinks McCrapskul is the favorite (she’s trailed, narrowly but consistently from the jump) and Donnelly is 2-1 than he’s forking nuts.
Rather than %, where do you see 24 flips? (I’m not going with 25 in case Paulsen in MN offsets the other flip we’re getting there).
I can’t get past 15, even giving Ds the benefit of the doubt.