Posted on 03/12/2018 2:31:30 PM PDT by Vigilanteman
updated 2 hours ago
Conor Lamb will win Western Pennsylvania's special election race for Congress on Tuesday if there is a surge in Democratic turnout similar to what has been seen in other special elections over the past year, according to a Monmouth University poll out Monday.
The Monmouth poll's “Democratic surge” model shows Lamb collecting 51 percent of the vote compared with Saccone's 45 percent, while 1 percent of likely voters would opt for a third-party candidate and 3 percent remain undecided. The poll's margin of error is 5.1 percent.
Monmouth said Lamb holds a slim advantage within the margin of error, 49 percent to 47 percent, if the election has a lower turnout similar to what is normally seen in midterm elections. If turnout is higher across the board, similar to a presidential election year, Lamb would defeat Saccone, 51 percent to 44 percent.
Saccone held an advantage over Lamb in all three polling scenarios last month.
(Excerpt) Read more at triblive.com ...
Trump has appeared and gave a great speech in Moon. How much of this polling pre-dates the speech?
Now that he’s appeared, tepid support or not, it’s a test of his coattails whether Saccone wins.
Are there any former twelve-year-old claiming they dated Saccone?
We are going to lose the House. Brace yourselves. All presidents lose a chamber at midterms. Reagan lost it, Clinton lost it, and Obama lost it. It’s nearly a given due to the increasing division. No one will be happier to be wrong than me and I am fully prepared to eat my words if I am wrong, saints be praised.
It sounds like this is a Democrat district!
I hope Trump is able to pull him across the finish line but I can't see people in PA motivated to get out to vote for him. On the other hand, the Trump haters are super motivated and you can bet they will get out the vote and if they pull their guy across, it will dominate the MSM news cycle (for those who still watch it) for a solid week at least and they will do a lot of gloating. Hopefully that prospect is enough to get people out there to vote for Saccone but they will be doing it for Trump. If Saccone wins, it will be all because of Trump.
He is also the only one who can get you and your family employment.
Remember JOBS and MAGA!
Don’t let the RATS eat your lunch.
Trump always has a chance for a re-do. If a real conservative runs in November then Sham Lamb will have a very short tenure.
Significant overweighting of dems in this poll. This is a red district. Small sample size as well. Must watch out for voter fraud. !!! The dems have gone all in on voter fraud. Starting with Virginia, then Alabama. Must stop them with Pennsylvania.!!!!!!!
Trump won the district handily.
Folks, this race is now in the hands of the registered voters in the PA-18th-CD. Forget the polls, this is strictly a turnout the voter election. Whoever has the bigger turnout from it’s base of voters will be the winner.
Democrat, Conor Lamb is not a lamb, but is a wolf in sheep’s (Lamb) clothing (Owned by Nancy Pelosi). Conor Lamb, if elected will become the man servant, pajama boy, lap dog of Nancy Pelosi, no matter what he says he will do in the campaign. He has no choice. He will do what she tells him to do...case closed!!!
Saccone is your everyday public servant who is a bit short on charisma, but long on loyalty and dependability to support POTUS, Trump!!!
Fact is: POTUS, Donald J. Trump has done much for the good, middle class, labor union, folks in PA-18th-CD and the surrounding states of Ohio, West Virginia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Indiana, etc. They owe the POTUS their full support and their votes cast for Republican, Rick Saccone.
Go, POTUS, Donald J. Trump, Go Rick Saccone, Go...MAGA!!!
If they don't shape up, the nation is going down. Might as well be the dems in power. At least they keep their promises to their voters.
D’s outnumber R’s slightly in this district. But Murphy’s smalles margin was a 16 point win. Many conservatives in SW PA will register Dem so they don’t get their property tax assessment messed with. Dems still dominate at the local level, not so much on the state and national.
Precipitation 73%
Mostly cloudy; a snow shower in the morning followed by a couple of flurries in the afternoon - temps mid 30s.
Of course he does. Where have I seen this before?
Reread first sentence again. They are declaring his win ...if....
Will Repubs turn out to vote if they thought the race was won by Lamb already.
Polls always are correct so I, for one, totally believe this. /s/
Polling politics in the USA is long dead!!! I’ll just remain “old fashioned” and wait for the “actual” election results, just as I did relative to the recent Texas Primary, where just about every poll showed the Democrats alive, well and winning.
Sorry, in the real game, the Texas primary election the Democrats got politically slaughtered. Case closed!!!
I wish Trump hadn’t put so much stock in this race and saying that I pray we win.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Toomey picking up 50% of the vote to Sestak’s 46%. One percent (1%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain
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