Lamb leads Saccone in poll released on eve of special election

Tribune-Review (Suburban Pittsburgh) ^ | 12 March 2018 | Tom Fontaine

[Vigilanteman]

updated 2 hours ago

Conor Lamb will win Western Pennsylvania's special election race for Congress on Tuesday if there is a surge in Democratic turnout similar to what has been seen in other special elections over the past year, according to a Monmouth University poll out Monday.

The Monmouth poll's “Democratic surge” model shows Lamb collecting 51 percent of the vote compared with Saccone's 45 percent, while 1 percent of likely voters would opt for a third-party candidate and 3 percent remain undecided. The poll's margin of error is 5.1 percent.

Monmouth said Lamb holds a slim advantage within the margin of error, 49 percent to 47 percent, if the election has a lower turnout similar to what is normally seen in midterm elections. If turnout is higher across the board, similar to a presidential election year, Lamb would defeat Saccone, 51 percent to 44 percent.

Saccone held an advantage over Lamb in all three polling scenarios last month.

[Vigilanteman]

And so it begins . . . The least like scenario (turnout similar to a presidential election year) grabs the headline while the next least like scenario (turnout similar to a mid-term) is in second place. What isn't mentioned is the most likely scenario, turnout for a special election, which is predicted at 30% based on absentee requests.

District 18: Show up an vote for the frumpy old guy whose military experience is at least authentic. The photogenic young guy went straight from boot camp to a cherry-picked assignment in OKINAWA where he spent less than two years behind a desk working with legal papers where he was allowed to transfer into the reserves and an appointment to a federal prosecutor's office by you know which administration.

Who else gets a deal like that?

[Jim Noble]

Lamb is running as a populist.

Saccone is running as GOPe scum.

Be worried.

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Just $662.00 dollars to 88.00%

[generally]

I hope the voters turn out for Saccone.

Another fake poll?

Have we got the voting fraud problem fixed yet?

[mplc51]

Saccone Wins!!

[goldstategop]

Monmouth is a liberal poll.

Predicted Hillary would win PA. How did that turn out?

[txhurl]

Who else gets a deal like that?

---

Reality Winners?

[generally]

That would explain Trump’s tepid support for him at the rally on Saturday. It was much more like a kickoff for Trump 2020.

Go Trump!

[Reno89519]

I haven’t read the details on either candidate but wonder about choice. Is Saccone GOPe? A Never Trumper? Is Trump down to backing him “because he is Republican” even if in name only?

[sam_whiskey]

I hope the voters turnout for Trump this time. Let’s not have a rerun of Alabama. Please.

[God luvs America]

as i said to a woman in the gym this morning, a woman very active in local GOP politics- the GOPe has done nothing to turn out the base and vote...if we lose once again there is blood on the hands of the GOPe...

[Kenny]

It’s all about optics. Lamb Connor is “conning” the voters. Campaigns conservative, says he loves Trump, yada yada.

Meanwhile, Saccone is an unattractive candidate who apparently comes from the “it’s my turn” camp.

We need attractive, energetic candidates who fight back, points out the lies, calls out the fact that Dem will always vote Dem. Sadly Saccone is not that person.

[Trump.Deplorable]

The only poll that matters is tomorrow

Lets wait and see, sometimes these polls help out side cause it gets our side to vote.

Remember Hillary was suppose to win in landslide, according to a Monmouth University poll...........

[QuigleyDU]

Media campaigning against Trump.

[WashingtonFire]

Polling organisations are under the control of the Marxists.

Get out and vote for the Trump candidate PA!

Trump is the only honest man left in Washington, the only one we can trust.

His endorsement means everything to me

[JohnBrowdie]

ask hillary how that headline worked out for her.

[luvbach1]

Trump’s point about Lamb, made repeatedly at his recent rally, is that no matter how conservative he appears (or even really is), the Demonrats impose srict party loyalty and punish those who do not adhere to it. He will vote the way Pelosi tells him to vote.

[JohnBrowdie]

not what DJT spent the weekend saying . . .

[Lagmeister]

Monmouth had Clinton over Trump 48 - 44 on election eve. This is a suppress the vote poll.

[COBOL2Java]

Send PajamaBoy in to campaign for Lamb!