Posted on 04/02/2016 11:20:48 PM PDT by Enlightened1
Based on current delegate counts and poll numbers Ted Cruz will be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination.
By the end April it will be clear that Ted Cruz has no chance of reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.
Actually in only 3 weeks, on April 26th, it will be clear that Ted Cruz cannot win.
(chart from Google)
Currently Cruz has only 463 delegates. Even if Cruz wins Wisconsin, which is a state whose delegates are winner take most (WTM), he still will not have enough delegates to win the election by April 26th.
This is in part because New York is leaning heavily towards Trump who leads according to polls listed at Real Clear Politics by as much as 36%. New York has a Republican primary where the delegates are split proportionally. So even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates, it won’t be enough. This is because come April 26th, there are five Republican Presidential primaries and three of these are winner take all (WTA). All three of these states are in the East where polls show Trump leading (Maryland and Pennsylvania) or there is no polling available with the state highly likely leaning towards Trump (Delaware). Even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates in Rhode Island or Connecticut or any of these states, it will not be enough to keep him mathematically in the race.
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
Trump will lose the rest of the primary elections to Scruz, er Ted!
The anti-American globalist uniparty does not care if the R wing or the D wing of the uniparty wins the general election. They only care that Trump does not win since only Trump is not a card carrying member of the anti-American uniparty. Trump is the real threat since of those running only Trump is a patriotic American and not down with the plan to replace the USA with a North American Union ruled by an elitist oligarchy. (their plan for us is one big Mexico)
Which also means no Cruz since NO WAY the GOPe will nominate Cruz. They want Ryan or Romney.
Will trump have enough to win by April 26th?
If not, this article is useless.
I started a vanity on the Cruz vat tax and am encountering interesting counter-points in his defense ...
Does the Cruz VAT Tax Solidify Trade Deficit? [aw!m vanity]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3417026/posts
Got to run.
FRegards ....
Great article, deserves to be re posted so that it can be read now by others who may have missed it.
If the runner up walks out of the convention with the nomination, don’t expect the people who supported the leader to fall in line. Don’t give me the rules nonsense, and don’t expect Trump supporters to jump in with Mr Second Plce.
And just so you know, Cruzis 100% establishment at this point. If he acts as a spoiler the establishment wins. Live with it, skippy.
It is the establishment that is helping Cruz, not the other way around. The establishment has already lost. They recognize it...but you don't.
What makes you think that an establishment candidate can succeed if they are opposed by both the Cruz and the Trump delegates?
OK, good to know. In your world, a plurality beats a majority...and, if it doesn't, you'll take your toys and go home.
You actually think Ted Cruz is responsible for Trump entering the race?
Because, let’s be blunt, had Trump never entered the race, the GOPe’s plan to split the conservative vote and nominate their chosen guy (Jeb) would have gone off without a hitch. Trump’s entering the races is what blew up their plan, and it is the ONE AND ONLY reason Cruz even has a shot at this point.
Thus, if (as you say) Cruz has been outmaneuvering the GOP all along, then Cruz must have maneuvered Trump into the race to blow up the GOPe plan. Do you really believe that?
Neither do I. Cruz got lucky. That’s the reality.
LOL Keep telling yourself you are not helping the establishment,. Infact a vote for cruz is a vote for the establishment whether you want to admit that to yourself or not.
do you not honestly see that you are voting for the establishment ?
they want a contested convention.
cruz wants a contested convention.
You vote for cruz then you vote for what the establishment wants.
So in fact you become an establishment took. a hack.
It’s a double headed hammer for Cruz bots
Actual issues and his smarmy political instincts matter at all. First and foremost self righteous snobby Christian Cruzbots see him as a fellow traveler
Self righteous and snobby super conservatives see him likewise
Some are both and see him as both
Hence any logic or reason or fair play is just not relevant to them
They are doing God’s work or the Constitutions work or both in their view
Common denominator is Cruz appeals to self righteousness
Outlaw, the situation is actually much more dire for Cruz than the original article referenced indicates. The article says that there are 943 delegates still available. The problem for Cruz is that because of the way delegates are assigned in the remaining states there are actually only 808 “pledged” delegates left to go before the convention. Cruz needs 774 of them to get to 1237. He can only lose 34 more “pledged” delegates before it becomes mathematically impossible for him to get to 1237 before the convention. This will most likely happen on the 19th in New York.
Even the most hardened Cruz supporters such as yourself will have to admit at that point that a vote for Cruz is actually a vote to let the GOP establishment pick the nominee. Carl Rove, Paul Ryan, Reince Priebus, Lindsay Graham, Mitch McConnell and the rest have all told us so. If that were not enough we have the recent debacle in Tennessee that confirms this as well.
Trump needs to start courting Cruz supporters as soon as possible. He will want to treat Cruz with as much respect as possible and stroke his ego. He should probably indicate that he regrets that things got out of hand and that he believes that Cruz is very smart and would make a great replacement for Scalia on the Supreme Court.
The upcoming narrative from Trump will likely be that if you vote for Cruz the GOP establishment will pick the nominee. Even if the nominee manages to somehow beat Hillary, nothing will change. If you vote for Trump he will shake things up and Cruz will end up on the Supreme Court where he can make a real difference in the abortion issue and for other conservative causes. I think that will resonate.
IIRC he mainly handed out toys to the kids.
When I was down south rounding up these illegal grass crawling invaders we probably rescued (and I do mean rescued) hundreds of kids from 8 to 18 that were left stranded in the sugar sand and burning heat. We handed out water, gave them rides on our 4wheelers out to BP if BP could not get to them and generally saved their lives.
I guess that makes me 1000X worse than Cruz in you peoples eyes because I gave them more than an toy.
I guess we should have just let them die and yawl would have been happy
Funny I did not see Trump down on the border with us trying to stop illegal immigration or donating to our little band of Patriots. It would have been tax deductible
Maybe he was too busy writing books and making deals.
Watcha think?
Let's get it on. We are 4 years overdue
Then why are you all so jittery?
___________________________
Because it does not matter if Cruz is knocked out in all probability.
The establishment will from here on out push Kasich.
Its not really about Trump or Cruz...its about keeping power within the trusted elites.
It so happens that my interests coincide with the establishment's. I want Trump to fall short of a majority on the 1st ballot so that Cruz might defeat him on a later ballot.
Be honest...
1. If Trump's and Cruz's positions were reversed, Trump would have done the exact same thing -- formed a temporary alliance with the establishment.
2. And you would be cheering him on, just as I am Cruz.
The fact is, the establishment has already been defeated. Between them, Trump and Cruz are going to control 75-80% o the delegates on the 1st ballot. If the GOP-e tries to slip in their candidate on a later ballot, the Trump and Cruz delegates would unite to utterly crush the poor fellow.
In act, I hope they try it on the 2nd ballot, so that their defeat can become public.
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