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CBS Poll: Kasich Tied with Trump in Ohio
Newsmax ^ | March 13,2016

Posted on 03/13/2016 8:44:23 AM PDT by Hojczyk

On the eve of a crucial primary that could determine the Republican nominee, Ohio Gov. John Kasich is tied with real estate mogul Donald Trump in the Buckeye State.

Both have 33 percent support in the CBS News Battleground Tracker poll released Sunday morning.

The poll shows that Kasich does well among voters who say the economy is in good shape, pollsters noted, while Trump leads among those who feel the Buckeye State’s economy is floundering.

But Trump has a 20-point lead over his closest challenger in winner-take-all Florida. He has 44 percent support in the poll, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with 24 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio with 21 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2016polls; cruz; election2016; elections; fornow; johnkasich; kasich; kasichcomesin2nd; newyork; oh2016; ohio; polls; rubio; trump
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To: dowcaet
As long as Trump is denied Ohio and it's winner take all delegates, I am happy. Ted Cruz will win plenty of states after Marco Rubio is forced to suspend his campaign due to non performance.
81 posted on 03/13/2016 4:06:52 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Yes. This is really hard to believe.


82 posted on 03/13/2016 4:07:35 PM PDT by uncitizen (Never back down! Never surrender!)
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To: Savage Rider
Pretty much. Trump almost always vastly underperforms his poll numbers against Ted Cruz especially in closed primaries and caucuses.
83 posted on 03/13/2016 4:12:46 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: Savage Rider
Pretty much. Trump almost always vastly underperforms his poll numbers against Ted Cruz especially in closed primaries and caucuses.
84 posted on 03/13/2016 4:12:52 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: Flick Lives

Like Idaho and Wyoming, where Cruz won with the biggest margin ever this year in the GOP primaries/caucuses.


85 posted on 03/13/2016 4:15:56 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: Greetings_Puny_Humans

I am touting the fact that Ted Cruz consistently does well against Hilary Clinton in head to heads that Ted Cruz will do well in the general. I am also touting the fact that Donald Trump does consistently badly against Hilary Clinton in head to head polls plus Trump has the highest negatives in history to suggest that Donald Trump will do badly in a general election against Hilary Clinton.


86 posted on 03/13/2016 4:22:41 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: Hojczyk

Wonder what Ohio voters think about Kasich’s recently announced amnesty proposals :(


87 posted on 03/13/2016 4:22:53 PM PDT by Freedom56v2 (I stand with Sheriff Joe, Phyllis Schlafly, Jerry Falwell Jr, Sarah Palin, Pat Robertson, Willie :))
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To: over3Owithabrain

“Yeah the Trump team is incompetent. Beating everyone despite spending far less money and having Left and Right media against them and 3 candidates tag teaming against him in selected States.”

I didn’t say overall they were incompetent. My comment was they made a mistake with respect to the advertising in Ohio that shouldn’t have been made. Given how few dollars Trump is spending, if he thought it was important enough to invest money on television advertising in Ohio during the last few days of what could be a close race with Kasich, this is an error that should not have occurred. It does suggest someone either dropped the ball or his team hired someone who wasn’t capable to develop and place the ads. People and teams make mistakes. I doubt Trump would ever admit it but this was a screw up.

The Kasich team was also smart to catch the error and force the pulling of the ad. Politics is war and in this case the Kasich forces took advantage of an error by Trump’s team. If Trump wins Ohio Tuesday it doesn’t matter. If he loses to Kasich by one or two percentage points the error probably cost him the state.


88 posted on 03/13/2016 5:08:33 PM PDT by Soul of the South (Tomorrow is gone. Today will be what we make of it.)
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To: Hojczyk

Go Trump ! Turn out the Trump vote Ohio !


89 posted on 03/13/2016 6:00:17 PM PDT by Carry me back (.Cut the feds by 90%)
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To: SmokingJoe

How many people voted ,300 rinos ? He already lost michigan.


90 posted on 03/13/2016 6:27:26 PM PDT by Carry me back (.Cut the feds by 90%)
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To: Flick Lives

Cruz has won 2 primaries. Lol


91 posted on 03/13/2016 6:28:33 PM PDT by Carry me back (.Cut the feds by 90%)
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To: Flick Lives
Ideally yes. But Cruz doesn’t have to win every state to take the nomination. In the case of Ohio, it's vital that Trump be prevented from winning it. Going by the latest polls, momentum and ground game, plus,Trump's propensity to underperformed his poll numbers, Kasich will take Ohio. Easy.
92 posted on 03/13/2016 6:47:51 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: SmokingJoe

I haven’t done the math, but is there really a path for Cruz, assuming he loses Florida and Ohio. I know the path even for Trump is way more difficult if he wins Florida and loses Ohio and he has a 90 delegate or so lead on Cruz.

I think Cruz will realistically be in contested convention territory after he loses OH and FL (assuming Kasich and Trump or just Trump remain afterward).


93 posted on 03/13/2016 6:50:51 PM PDT by NYRepublican72 (Democrats -- it's always someone else's fault.)
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To: Hojczyk

Kasich is saying more liberal talking points, Hillary & Bernie supporters won’t be crossing over since they are in a close race. 1 advantage for Trump is all the early voters he was ahead in the polls and his aren’t switching and his are rock solid. I vote for Cruz tomorrrow


94 posted on 03/13/2016 7:00:40 PM PDT by Steelers6
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To: SmokingJoe

*CHOKE*

Oh yeah; he got that biiig win in Wyoming to the tune of less than 700 votes TOTAL.

Whatever you’re smoking, it’s some good shit.


95 posted on 03/13/2016 7:22:19 PM PDT by Luircin (Supervillians for Trump: We're sick of being the lesser evil!)
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To: Luircin

According to you crazy Trump bots, Ted Cruz was supposed to lose because (gasp!), he rightly called out Trump the con man for fostering a culture of violence. Instead Cruz totally annihilated Trump in Wyoming, right after Cruz called out Trump for his culture of violence.


96 posted on 03/13/2016 7:48:56 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: NYRepublican72
I haven’t done the math, but is there really a path for Cruz, assuming he loses Florida and Ohio.

Easily. Ideally, Trump would be clobbered in Florida and Ohio.
Trump WILL lose Ohio. Florida will come down to how Rubio does in the polls in the next couple of days, plus if Cruz stopped campaigning in there so some of his voters could switch to Rubio.

97 posted on 03/13/2016 7:58:52 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: SmokingJoe

Cruz loses Florida and Ohio.

He probably gets 30%-40% of the delegates in Illinois and North Carolina.

He could win Missouri, but Trump will get some of the delegate stake.

So let’s give him 37/52 in MO, 24/54 in IL and 25/72 in NC. We’ll even throw the Northern Marianas Islands caucus his way for 9 delegates, making his haul out of Tuesday around 100 delegates.

He’s now at about 370 delegates.

So let’s say he is now at roughly 500 delegates. (And that’s probably being generous) after Separation Tuesday.

Go and get the other 737 delegates with how the states are apportioned going forward.

March 22
Arizona (58) - WTA - loss
Utah (40) - >50% wins - Win

April 5
Wisconsin(42) - WTA by CD/Statewide - let’s say he gets 33 (best case). He’ll likely lose and perhaps take 9-15 delegates.

April 19
New York (95) - Trump’s home state. Cruz loses here, gets to the 20% threshhold for one delegate in let’s say 25 of the 27 CDs - 25 total (best case)

So we’re up to roughly 600.

There are 172 delegates up for grabs on April 26
Another 57 on May 3
70, 28 and 44 on May 10, 17, 24
303 on June 6

That’s 674 delegates left on the table. Take out NJ’s 51 delegates, which will likely go Trump (it’s WTA there) and you’re down to 623.

#Mathfail

And that’s assuming a sweep in proportional states like RI, OR. NM and WA where you aren’t going to take either all 3 delegates in a CD or the statewide portion of the vote is strictly proportional.

Back of the envelope math suggests that unless there’s a HUGE upset in FL and OH, Cruz has no viable path to the nomination independent of whatever happens to Trump. Even if Cruz pulls an upset in Illinois.


98 posted on 03/13/2016 8:23:17 PM PDT by NYRepublican72 (Democrats -- it's always someone else's fault.)
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To: SmokingJoe

And note when I say “path to the nomination,” I mean via an uncontested convention. I am not talking about a brokered convention situation here.


99 posted on 03/13/2016 8:25:55 PM PDT by NYRepublican72 (Democrats -- it's always someone else's fault.)
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To: NYRepublican72
Errrrrmmm...You might want to read this:

Horowitz: Cruz’s Path to Victory: The Math and Science - See more at: https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/03/cruzs-path-to-victory-the-math-and-science#sthash.MFX0sYAM.dpuf

David Horowitz has quite a different take on the matter than you do. I'll go with David Horowitz's take thank you.

100 posted on 03/14/2016 5:25:37 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
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