Easily. Ideally, Trump would be clobbered in Florida and Ohio.
Trump WILL lose Ohio. Florida will come down to how Rubio does in the polls in the next couple of days, plus if Cruz stopped campaigning in there so some of his voters could switch to Rubio.
Cruz loses Florida and Ohio.
He probably gets 30%-40% of the delegates in Illinois and North Carolina.
He could win Missouri, but Trump will get some of the delegate stake.
So let’s give him 37/52 in MO, 24/54 in IL and 25/72 in NC. We’ll even throw the Northern Marianas Islands caucus his way for 9 delegates, making his haul out of Tuesday around 100 delegates.
He’s now at about 370 delegates.
So let’s say he is now at roughly 500 delegates. (And that’s probably being generous) after Separation Tuesday.
Go and get the other 737 delegates with how the states are apportioned going forward.
March 22
Arizona (58) - WTA - loss
Utah (40) - >50% wins - Win
April 5
Wisconsin(42) - WTA by CD/Statewide - let’s say he gets 33 (best case). He’ll likely lose and perhaps take 9-15 delegates.
April 19
New York (95) - Trump’s home state. Cruz loses here, gets to the 20% threshhold for one delegate in let’s say 25 of the 27 CDs - 25 total (best case)
So we’re up to roughly 600.
There are 172 delegates up for grabs on April 26
Another 57 on May 3
70, 28 and 44 on May 10, 17, 24
303 on June 6
That’s 674 delegates left on the table. Take out NJ’s 51 delegates, which will likely go Trump (it’s WTA there) and you’re down to 623.
#Mathfail
And that’s assuming a sweep in proportional states like RI, OR. NM and WA where you aren’t going to take either all 3 delegates in a CD or the statewide portion of the vote is strictly proportional.
Back of the envelope math suggests that unless there’s a HUGE upset in FL and OH, Cruz has no viable path to the nomination independent of whatever happens to Trump. Even if Cruz pulls an upset in Illinois.
And note when I say “path to the nomination,” I mean via an uncontested convention. I am not talking about a brokered convention situation here.