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NATE SILVER: Here's who's favored to win the Iowa caucuses (Odds of winning: Trump 54%-Cruz 33%)
Yahoo.com ^ | 2/1/2016 | Andy Kiersz

Posted on 02/01/2016 2:27:33 PM PST by GilGil

FiveThirtyEight provides two projections for each race: A "polls-only" model that is based solely on public polling within a particular state, and a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress.

Looking at the Monday-night Iowa caucuses, the two models are more or less in agreement about each party's favorites: businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

In the Republican race, the polls-plus model gives Trump a 46% chance of winning, compared with 39% for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 14% for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and 1% for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

The polls-only model has the same order for the top four candidates but with slightly better odds for the front-runner: Trump is forecast to have a 54% chance of winning, compared with 33% for Cruz, 11% for Rubio, and 1% for Carson.

(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arkansas; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: New York; US: Texas; US: Vermont
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016election; arkansas; bencarson; berniesanders; caucus; election2016; electionbetting; florida; hillary; hillaryclinton; hitlery; ia2016; iowa; iowacaucus; marcorubio; natesilver; newyork; tedcruz; texas; trump; vermont; wipewater
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To: mojito

NYT just endorsed her. Like electing the Godfather in a pantsuit.


41 posted on 02/01/2016 4:11:09 PM PST by GilGil
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To: scooby321

Only Fox News has Marco Rubio surging

They have been. People must be saying they are switching votes to the news people. Because I don’t think that they could talk about it otherwise. He has been doing good since the debate. Well see. Nobody knows anything until midnight (or close to).


42 posted on 02/01/2016 4:24:32 PM PST by napscoordinator
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To: SamAdams76

I’m pretty sure it’s only the D side that does the whole coercion thing. I think for the R side it’s speeches then a secret ballot.

Don’t quote me on that, though. Haven’t lived in Iowa for 12 years.


43 posted on 02/01/2016 4:37:20 PM PST by Luircin (The difference between lesser evil and greater good is who gets schlonged in the end.)
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To: NKP_Vet

What.

What.

Link me to that video.


44 posted on 02/01/2016 4:38:16 PM PST by Luircin (The difference between lesser evil and greater good is who gets schlonged in the end.)
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To: GilGil

lol

this guy spent the last 6 months saying Trump can’t win... now he is predicting he will!

ROFL


45 posted on 02/01/2016 4:58:51 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, R)
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To: GilGil

But does Nate Silver know about the ground game?


46 posted on 02/01/2016 5:18:52 PM PST by entropy12 (Trump - NOT funded by Goldman Sachs. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

In a way can not blame Nate. He uses history a lot, and there never has been a candidate like Trump in living memory.


47 posted on 02/01/2016 5:20:15 PM PST by entropy12 (Trump - NOT funded by Goldman Sachs. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!)
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To: GilGil

I would not call the 8 point difference between 46% and 54% “slight.”


48 posted on 02/01/2016 5:38:53 PM PST by truth_seeker
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To: GilGil

Early information seems to indicate Rubio doing better than expected. Manufactured news?


49 posted on 02/01/2016 5:40:03 PM PST by CatOwner (Trump + Cruz greater than 50% = GOPe on suicide watch)
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Guess Nate was off a bit on this one.


50 posted on 02/01/2016 8:24:23 PM PST by csivils
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To: GilGil

Well, Nate Silver’s an idiot.


51 posted on 02/01/2016 8:49:50 PM PST by demshateGod (Trump: We will have to leave borders behind and go for global unity)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

I guess Nate talks to the same god Trump talks to.


52 posted on 02/01/2016 8:50:35 PM PST by demshateGod (Trump: We will have to leave borders behind and go for global unity)
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To: GilGil

53 posted on 02/01/2016 8:53:39 PM PST by SecondAmendment (Restoring our Republic at 9.8357x10^8 FPS)
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To: GilGil

Haha, Nate Silver crashes into the earth, and all the other poll-worshippers!


54 posted on 02/01/2016 9:01:59 PM PST by cookcounty ("I was a Democrat until I learned to count" --Maine Gov. Paul LePage)
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To: cookcounty

Nate will be washing the his boyfriend out of his mouth this morning and will be back at it later.


55 posted on 02/02/2016 3:14:41 AM PST by MSF BU (Support the troops: Join Them.)
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To: GilGil

All these people saying Nate Silver is a genius.... Blah blah blah...


56 posted on 02/02/2016 4:16:48 AM PST by petercooper (All the world's problems are caused by the sandrats, hoodrats, gimmedats, democrats and commiecrats.)
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To: GilGil

In addition to the many pleasures of the last twenty-four hours, it is an additional joy to see Nate Silver be wrong.


57 posted on 02/02/2016 5:24:30 AM PST by gridlock (ELIMINATE PERVERSE INCENTIVES)
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To: GilGil

Nate needs to find a new schtick.


58 posted on 02/02/2016 5:39:08 AM PST by Mashood
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To: GilGil

So much for Silver.


59 posted on 02/02/2016 5:57:53 AM PST by CPT Clay (Hillary: Julius and Ethal Rosenberg were electrocuted for selling classified info.)
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To: CPT Clay

to be fair, Silver wasn’t “wrong”. He stated that each candidate had a certain “chance” to win. He did not state Trump had a 100% chance to win. He did state that Cruz had a 37% chance to win, which he did. That’s how probability works. It’s a chance of a certain outcome, not a guarantee of a certain outcome.


60 posted on 02/02/2016 11:51:14 AM PST by NYCslicker
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