Posted on 01/11/2016 7:11:52 AM PST by Jane Long
The Iowa Republican Caucuses may come down to a photo finish. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are tied with 27% of the vote each.
Apart from the 27 percenters, Marco Rubio takes 3rd place with 15%, with Ben Carson behind him at 9%.
The rest of the field holds 18% of the support, with another 3% undecided. Unlike the Democratic Caucuses in Iowa, once you commit to a candidate, your vote is finalized. There is no support threshold, meaning the top candidates cannot benefit from lower tier candidates not getting enough traction.
Slightly frustrating efforts to read into how this will affect the delegate count is the fact that the voting percentages may not reflect the allocation percentages. Doing well in Iowa is important to give campaigns momentum as they move into the other 3 February voting states, and then finally into Super Tuesday, March 1st. A poor showing in Iowa, combined with either low poll numbers in New Hampshire, or another poor showing in their 2nd in the nation primary, can lead some of the lower tier candidates to drop out. As candidates drop out, their support has to go somewhere, and even just a few extra percentage points can help capture additional delegates, especially in winner-take-all states.
As it stands, the top 5 right now will probably stick it out until at least March 1st. If this is still a 7+ person race during the second week of March, I would be surprised. Registering low single digit support in the early states, and especially on Super Tuesday, basically guarantees a candidate's donors will dry up quickly.
We will release one more Iowa poll on January 31st.
KEEP PRAYING!!!......
The problem with the ‘clean out the Supreme Court’ rationale and Trump is his pro-abortion Judge sister who Trump see’s as a viable candidate for the nation’s highest court.
With 3 likely justices to come in the next four years... Cruz is the only candidate that will reliably clean out the court.
Cruz needs to be the nominee... Trump should be in charge of building the wall along our southern border.
“Oh my. What will the Cruzers say today??”
Trumphole. Trumpette. Trumpster. Trump worshipper.
And other comparably edifying and reasoned responses.
It’s now tied in Iowa!!
*******************
It will get untied on Feb. 1 sometime after 7 pm.
Any speculation on Trump’s approach to caucus day? What do you
think he’ll be doing, saying to encourage people to go caucus?
Tell that to the thousands and thousands who came out out on a three day notice to fill the 18,500 arena in Dallas
What are the roots that clutch, what branches grow
Out of this stony rubbish? Son of man,
You cannot say, or guess, for you know only
A heap of broken images, where the sun beats,
And the dead tree gives no shelter, the cricket no relief,
And the dry stone no sound of water...
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.
Cruz was pulling away?
Is Trump the "Comeback Kid?"
I would only caution you against celebrating too early. I have noticed this tendency among your cohorts.
Cruz better start pouring more coffee
Isn’t this proportional? I mean are we talking one delegate either way?
Trump is gonna win it. I dont know if He Knows What He Is Doing or if it is something like instinct, but he does it.
I would not be too concerned about head to head polls this far out. Hillary is IMHO unelectable and either Cruz or Trump beats her. I think Trump in a landslide, Cruz in a election.
Don’t forget “Anita Trump”.....
I also notice that the younger someone gets, the more they support Trump. Cruz leads by 5 or 6 points among the geriatric crowd, and leads a little bit among people in their late 40s and into their 50s. But then begins to lose with people in their late 30s to mid 40s, and then is utterly dominated for everyone not in their 30s.
So this raises the question: how much are they weighing the elderly vote? In a normal election, maybe these people have a lot of representation in the Iowa caucus, since they are old and their kids don’t visit them and they have nothing better to do. But I wonder how much that will change with increased turnout among everybody under the age of 45?
That's only because trump has name recognition. If people don't like Hillary - there are lots of them - and they see her name vs Cruz whom they may have a few very vague notions about, they will express their displeasure with H by voting for Cruz. It will even out. Cruz has barely started getting any national attention, and with that will come alot of negatives.
Fret not!
This is nonsense...
Take your GOPe garbage elsewhere...
Sorry, it doesn’t get any more GOPe than TPA and H-1B increases. And “Lion of conservatism” Ted Cruz campaigned for both. Time for Cruz supporters to admit the truth and eat their peas.
IMO, the ‘jump the shark’ video was fair-game, just as Trump did not directly confront Cruz on the birther issue.
Both guys behaving themselves on that score at least.
The corn hole state hasn’t picked a winner in 12 years....
“With 3 likely justices to come in the next four years... Cruz is the only candidate that will reliably clean out the court.”
That is nothing but an empty boast.
Or do you need to be reminded of Reagan’s SCOTUS picks and how they turned out?
Hahah!
I’m glad for Cruz if he wins Iowa. He deserves that much at least.
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