Posted on 01/11/2016 7:11:52 AM PST by Jane Long
The Iowa Republican Caucuses may come down to a photo finish. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are tied with 27% of the vote each.
Apart from the 27 percenters, Marco Rubio takes 3rd place with 15%, with Ben Carson behind him at 9%.
The rest of the field holds 18% of the support, with another 3% undecided. Unlike the Democratic Caucuses in Iowa, once you commit to a candidate, your vote is finalized. There is no support threshold, meaning the top candidates cannot benefit from lower tier candidates not getting enough traction.
Slightly frustrating efforts to read into how this will affect the delegate count is the fact that the voting percentages may not reflect the allocation percentages. Doing well in Iowa is important to give campaigns momentum as they move into the other 3 February voting states, and then finally into Super Tuesday, March 1st. A poor showing in Iowa, combined with either low poll numbers in New Hampshire, or another poor showing in their 2nd in the nation primary, can lead some of the lower tier candidates to drop out. As candidates drop out, their support has to go somewhere, and even just a few extra percentage points can help capture additional delegates, especially in winner-take-all states.
As it stands, the top 5 right now will probably stick it out until at least March 1st. If this is still a 7+ person race during the second week of March, I would be surprised. Registering low single digit support in the early states, and especially on Super Tuesday, basically guarantees a candidate's donors will dry up quickly.
We will release one more Iowa poll on January 31st.
Wow! It’s a race.
you’re right.
I can’t even believe that I got involved in all this.
everybody is a constitutional scholar on both sides now lol
but I’ve never posted a hateful trump post. I like the guy. fellow NYer.
but you can’t get peace around here with the constant attacks on Cruz.
and I can hear a trump supporter saying the same thing.
and I can envision one or the other side staying home out of spite and hilarry or the hippie strolling into office,
I KNOW you know that’s possible. you’re the one who snapped me out of my hatfield McCoy train of thought.
thanks.
I will not respond to the attacks to my attacks lol. that’s how wars begin.
Good to hear it!
Keywords increase google hits. No worries.
All the more reason to start the battle in 2017.
But how can Trump win SC with Haley fighting him so hard? I hope he doesn’t pledge to take Haley for V.P.
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