McCauliffe: 49.5% Cuccinelli: 44% Sarvis: 5.5%
Cuccinelli seems to be capped at 5% or so in making up the difference. The question is whether McCauliffe will break the 50% threshold, which is too close to call at this time.
Given these polls, simulations, and the recent trends in the State of Virginia elections, both midterm and Presidential, I've reached the following conclusions:
(1) Total votes between GOP&Dem (not Sarvis) will be at or somewhat lower than 1,900,000. If this holds, then it will be clear that GOP voters stayed home, which will only embolden the GOP-e more in trying to control candidates that are selected.
If, however, the total voters INCREASES from the 1,938,000 in 2010, this will indicate that there was an increase in those people voting that do not normally vote in these midterm elections.
Based on this, I see two scenarios, and will use Fairfax County has the prime example.
I suspect the turnout in Fairfax County to be only 250,000-255,000 people, a drop-off. Based on those current numbers, Ken would get around 37%, McCauliffe 56%, and Sarvis 7% or 92,500 to 140,000 to 15,000. In other words, there is a significant drop-off of almost 40,000 votes for Ken, but McCauliffe is only garnering a few thousand more votes than Deeds, while underperforming Kaine's numbers.. Placed across the state, this would equate to the 49.5%, 44%, 5.5% percentages.
The other scenario is that the total votes in Fairfax total 280,000. Using these same percentages, Ken would get 103,600, McCauliffe 156,800, and Sarvis 19,600. There is still a dropp-off for Ken, while McCauliffe almost reaches Kaine's numbers, but not quite. This is about as high as I think turnout can be. Any higher, or if McCauliffe pulls in better numbers than Kaine in Fairfax County, then you can say there is a sizeable demographic shift.
As for the least 20 of the 134 County/City-County regions in VA, I ran the following simulation awhile back. Because the numbers are overall lower, the margin for error is less. I have Cuccinelli winning here 56-44%, but this did not take Sarvis into account at the time. I have no reason to believe McCauliffe won't hit his basic target here, but that Ken will fall of short with a split vote.
For Cucinelli to pull the comeback, he MUST garner close to 115,00-120,000 votes in Fairfax County. If the voter turnout exceeds 280,000, add the proportional thousands to his required total to adjust. At this stage I do not see it. He must also meet his targets in the lower population areas.
Highland: Total 1,051 - Ken (675) Terry (376)
Norton: Total: 950 - Ken (653) Terry (297)
Bath: Total: 1604 - Ken (828) Terry (776)
Galax: Total: 1,295 - Ken (733) Terry (562)
Covington Total: 1,514 - Ken (478) Terry (1,036)
Buena Vista: Total: 1,440 - Ken (907) Terry (533)
Craig Total: 1,604 - Ken (1,089) Terry (515)
Lexington Total: 1,579 - Ken (676) Terry (903)
Emporia Total: 1,257 - Ken (709) Terry (550)
Bedford Total: 1,624 - Ken (993) Terry (631)
Bland Total: 1,871 - Ken (1,436) Terry (435)
King&Queen Total: 1,877 - Ken (1,156) Terry (721)
Richmond County Total: 2,165 - Ken (1,469) Terry (696)
Charles City Total: 2,209 - Ken (935) Terry (1,274)
Surry Total: 2,336 - Ken (1,069) Terry (1,267)
Rappahannock Total: 2,832 - Ken (1,571) Terry (1,261)
Franklin Total: 2,078 - Ken (913) Terry (1,165)
Manassas Total: 1,831 - Ken (951) Terry (880)
Greensville Total: 2,793 - Ken (1,271) Terry (1,522)
Cumberland Total: 2,877 - Ken (1,650) Terry (1,227)
Radford Total: 2,731 - Ken (1,462) Terry (1,269)
Matthews Total: 3,389 - Ken (2,407) Terry (982)
As returns come in, watch these target numbers. They all add up. But when I did these, I did not account for Sarvis, and I suspect he will pull from Ken's total.
The one nice thing about this election is that in the weeks leading up to it, we in Pennsylvania vot(my home state) were not drenched in the sewage of negative campaign commercials. We won’t be so lucky next year. I feel sorry for our friends in VA who must have been absolutely clobbered by this garbage. If only there was a way to convince local TV and radio not to run this malignant drivel. One more way we in the USA are the laughingstock of the developed world. Rant over.
need you to report in, parksstp, for us Freepers outside of the state. Where is the live thread?
Praying! Love you! :)
It would be so awesome to see Sarvis steal this election from McAwful
Fairfax is clearly “holding” their results.
That is so ridiculous.
This thing is done. McAuliffe by 3.5%...fake “Libertarian” grabs 6% and spoils it, by design.
So this is the story on Sarvis!!!
Consider how much damage Obama has done, what a disaster Obamacare is, all the scandals, all the exposed lies. This is an off year with low turnout, both of which are supposed to favor our side. Yet we still lose.
The obamacare rollout alone should have made this an easy win for us. But we lost. This tells me that there really are that many hardcore, diehard Marxists in this country who cannot be prevailed upon to even consider an iota of common sense, and who despise freedom and America.
If, even after all this, we still cannot win, it bodes very ill for '14, '16 and beyond (if there is a beyond at all, that is.)
Goll-Damn. Its nearly enough to make me cut short my study of your species and return to my home planet.
Time to fire up NetFlix and watch me some Breaking Bad...
Had Rove and Romney not STOLE all the money
that the TEA PARTY and others contributed,
the conservative candidate would be ahead.
But Romney had a three level, ocean front garage to build
in California.
2 Tim 4:7I have fought the good fight, I have finished the race, I have kept the faith.
(NIV)
Clearly Ken and the Tea Party have fough the good fight, finished the race, and keep the faith.
Part of the reason for their defeat is Big Brown Messes created by Rinos and Demon Rats.
Figures, the dumb ass low information voters and slack jawed welfare recipient subhuman scum elected another whore. Mcaullife, the sound that a Turbo turd makes winding its way through your colon.
Countdown to McAwful being involved in some kind of scandal while in office.
Obenshain up .56 with 14 precincts to go. The Dems are trying to get it to free recount territory.
So is the Virginia race all but decided at this point? And I know there is the NJ governor race, but wasn’t there a third Governor race? I am not sure about that, just wanted to check.
F*#K1%g Losertarians cost the GOP another seat sucking 7% of the vote/
Any person that would actually get up off their welfare/gov union butt and go vote for that WEASEL TM needs to get their frigging head examined......or maybt not.
i dunno
I’m not one of them
Thank god.
The way it went starting off great and losing a bit more each few districts was purposeful. No one can convince me of any other conclusion than dens and Re planned it along with bankrolled third party. Withoutt this Cucc would have huge win. He should be shouting this and how the public will suffer because of this. I’m sure there were many manufactureres ballots from the late reporting districts. Notice dem districts always report last? Why doesn’t our side ever note this publicly? Dens are supposed to be the wizards of smart.
My condolences to Commuist-occupied Virginia. May she rise again!