[parksstp]

Okay, so awhile back I put up my VA talking points paper, and due to other commitments wasn't able to finish it. However, it looking at the polls and the simulation numbers, it appears that we are headed for the following amounts:

McCauliffe: 49.5% Cuccinelli: 44% Sarvis: 5.5%

Cuccinelli seems to be capped at 5% or so in making up the difference. The question is whether McCauliffe will break the 50% threshold, which is too close to call at this time.

Given these polls, simulations, and the recent trends in the State of Virginia elections, both midterm and Presidential, I've reached the following conclusions:

(1) Total votes between GOP&Dem (not Sarvis) will be at or somewhat lower than 1,900,000. If this holds, then it will be clear that GOP voters stayed home, which will only embolden the GOP-e more in trying to control candidates that are selected.

If, however, the total voters INCREASES from the 1,938,000 in 2010, this will indicate that there was an increase in those people voting that do not normally vote in these midterm elections.

Based on this, I see two scenarios, and will use Fairfax County has the prime example.

I suspect the turnout in Fairfax County to be only 250,000-255,000 people, a drop-off. Based on those current numbers, Ken would get around 37%, McCauliffe 56%, and Sarvis 7% or 92,500 to 140,000 to 15,000. In other words, there is a significant drop-off of almost 40,000 votes for Ken, but McCauliffe is only garnering a few thousand more votes than Deeds, while underperforming Kaine's numbers.. Placed across the state, this would equate to the 49.5%, 44%, 5.5% percentages.

The other scenario is that the total votes in Fairfax total 280,000. Using these same percentages, Ken would get 103,600, McCauliffe 156,800, and Sarvis 19,600. There is still a dropp-off for Ken, while McCauliffe almost reaches Kaine's numbers, but not quite. This is about as high as I think turnout can be. Any higher, or if McCauliffe pulls in better numbers than Kaine in Fairfax County, then you can say there is a sizeable demographic shift.

As for the least 20 of the 134 County/City-County regions in VA, I ran the following simulation awhile back. Because the numbers are overall lower, the margin for error is less. I have Cuccinelli winning here 56-44%, but this did not take Sarvis into account at the time. I have no reason to believe McCauliffe won't hit his basic target here, but that Ken will fall of short with a split vote.

For Cucinelli to pull the comeback, he MUST garner close to 115,00-120,000 votes in Fairfax County. If the voter turnout exceeds 280,000, add the proportional thousands to his required total to adjust. At this stage I do not see it. He must also meet his targets in the lower population areas.

Highland: Total 1,051 - Ken (675) Terry (376)

Norton: Total: 950 - Ken (653) Terry (297)

Bath: Total: 1604 - Ken (828) Terry (776)

Galax: Total: 1,295 - Ken (733) Terry (562)

Covington Total: 1,514 - Ken (478) Terry (1,036)

Buena Vista: Total: 1,440 - Ken (907) Terry (533)

Craig Total: 1,604 - Ken (1,089) Terry (515)

Lexington Total: 1,579 - Ken (676) Terry (903)

Emporia Total: 1,257 - Ken (709) Terry (550)

Bedford Total: 1,624 - Ken (993) Terry (631)

Bland Total: 1,871 - Ken (1,436) Terry (435)

King&Queen Total: 1,877 - Ken (1,156) Terry (721)

Richmond County Total: 2,165 - Ken (1,469) Terry (696)

Charles City Total: 2,209 - Ken (935) Terry (1,274)

Surry Total: 2,336 - Ken (1,069) Terry (1,267)

Rappahannock Total: 2,832 - Ken (1,571) Terry (1,261)

Franklin Total: 2,078 - Ken (913) Terry (1,165)

Manassas Total: 1,831 - Ken (951) Terry (880)

Greensville Total: 2,793 - Ken (1,271) Terry (1,522)

Cumberland Total: 2,877 - Ken (1,650) Terry (1,227)

Radford Total: 2,731 - Ken (1,462) Terry (1,269)

Matthews Total: 3,389 - Ken (2,407) Terry (982)

As returns come in, watch these target numbers. They all add up. But when I did these, I did not account for Sarvis, and I suspect he will pull from Ken's total.

[tcrlaf]

Some conflicting Tweets: Dorian Wesco Snyder ‏@DorianSnyder 1m #VoteBlue news in VA turnout at polls are poor. What a shame. 2hrs left.........Please VOTE!!!!!!! Some tweets saying Dem turnout is off, while all the liberal tweets are trying to give the impression of a Dem Tidal wave.

[DYngbld]

Turn out at our precinct was steady, not like for a Presidential election, but steady. Sadly there are only two KC signs on my road. Saw lots of Ken supporters at the polls, but this one went Obummer last year.

I do have a first time voter in my house so it was plus one for the good guys. She has been looking forward to voting for several years, and was very proud and excited to go vote today.

[yellowdoghunter]

Even if we lose Virginia, I know Christie is no prize but you gotta know the Democrats HATE not to have that Governorship. It took running N.J. into the ground, literally, for Christie to win. So it may take that for Virginia. Also, we should NOT overlook the counties in Colorado who are voting to succeed, the media will gloss over it, we should not. It is a BIG deal!! It is the part of the beginning.....

Keep fighting!! I am not saying we have lost Virginia....just other factors to keep in mind.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Virginia governor’s race: Many voters unenthusiastic about their choices

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/polls-open-across-virginia-in-hotly-contested-governors-race/2013/11/04/06c6205c-45d2-11e3-bf0c-cebf37c6f484_story.html

[blueyon]

my nerves........................

[rabidralph]

Here's a blogging thread from WTOP Radio, Washington, DC

[rabidralph]

Here's the results page for Virginia. They said they'd start updating it at 7pm, EST.

[Lucky9teen]

I'm not in VA, but thought I'd pass this along...
Revealed: Obama Campaign Bundler Helping Fund Libertarian in Tight Va. Gubernatorial Race

A major Democratic Party benefactor and Obama campaign bundler helped pay for professional petition circulators responsible for getting Virginia Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Robert C. Sarvis on the ballot — a move that could split conservative votes in a tight race.

[Free Vulcan]

OK kids, we got 20% of the precincts in and Ken is up handily.

This is good, very good. If he can hold this to 50% of the vote, he should have it.

[TomGuy]

VA state results 802/2541 precincts

Cuccinelli 258,618 - 51%
McAuliffe 210,551 - 42%

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY

[topher]

It would be nice to have the Democrats (Demon Rats) to be caught in some election fraud.

I would if that would happen if the election might still be considered valid?

[lonestar67]

I do think the most current results are here:

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY

With 36% reporting

Cuccinelli holds a 9 point lead.

[tallyhoe]

I heard on FBN that Sarvis is is not a Libertarian but a Democratic Plant... Evidently he go tons of money from the Democratic Machine!!!

[antonico]

Jamie Dupree - reporter- just tweeted the following Exit Poll info:

McCauliffe won: 96% Democrat votes; 3% GOP votes; and 36% Independents.

Cuccinelli won 91% GOP Votes; 2% Democrat Votes; and 47% Independent votes

Sarvis won: 16% Independents; 3% Democrats; and 4% GOP.

[TomGuy]

VA 1155/2541 precincts

Cuccinilli 424,830 - 50%
McAuliffe 361,776 - 43%

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY

[so_real]

Take a moment away from the polls FRiends, to load this bit of CNN liberal news reporting: "What GOP can learn from Cuccinelli's tanking bid in Virginia"

Our "teavangelist" has not won yet. The race has not been called. But it feels good, doesn't it, how well he's doing in light of this hit piece. Relish that. And, when Cuccinelli does win, read the article a second time :-)

[smoothsailing]

		Ken T. Cuccinelli II	524,486	49.05%		0	315		0.490532332976063				REP	731	N	4
		Terry R. McAuliffe	467,157	43.69%		0	315		0.436914642289973				DEM	830	N	4
		Robert C. Sarvis	74,486	6.97%		0	315		0.0696639974261563				LIB	495	N	4
		Write-in	3,089	0.29%		99	315		0.00288902730780814					1360	N	4
		Total Votes	1,069,218

[lonestar67]

Here is some comparative data from 2o12 for the three largest counties by population versus the 2013 results thus far:

1. Fairfax County — 1,081,726 R39 O59 C37 M57
2. Virginia Beach city — 437,994 R50 O47 C49 M44
3. Prince William County — 402,002 R41 O57 C44 M51

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

http://www.politico.com/2013-election/results/map/#/Governor/2013/VA

76.7% reporting

47.8% C
45.3% M
6.9% S

Hank

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

Whoa..this looks odd.

With 76.9% in, Cucinelli is leading 47.8% to 45.3%.

With the same %, the D candidate for Lt. Gov is leading 53% to 47&.

Any thoughts as to what this may mean?

Hank