McCauliffe: 49.5% Cuccinelli: 44% Sarvis: 5.5%
Cuccinelli seems to be capped at 5% or so in making up the difference. The question is whether McCauliffe will break the 50% threshold, which is too close to call at this time.
Given these polls, simulations, and the recent trends in the State of Virginia elections, both midterm and Presidential, I've reached the following conclusions:
(1) Total votes between GOP&Dem (not Sarvis) will be at or somewhat lower than 1,900,000. If this holds, then it will be clear that GOP voters stayed home, which will only embolden the GOP-e more in trying to control candidates that are selected.
If, however, the total voters INCREASES from the 1,938,000 in 2010, this will indicate that there was an increase in those people voting that do not normally vote in these midterm elections.
Based on this, I see two scenarios, and will use Fairfax County has the prime example.
I suspect the turnout in Fairfax County to be only 250,000-255,000 people, a drop-off. Based on those current numbers, Ken would get around 37%, McCauliffe 56%, and Sarvis 7% or 92,500 to 140,000 to 15,000. In other words, there is a significant drop-off of almost 40,000 votes for Ken, but McCauliffe is only garnering a few thousand more votes than Deeds, while underperforming Kaine's numbers.. Placed across the state, this would equate to the 49.5%, 44%, 5.5% percentages.
The other scenario is that the total votes in Fairfax total 280,000. Using these same percentages, Ken would get 103,600, McCauliffe 156,800, and Sarvis 19,600. There is still a dropp-off for Ken, while McCauliffe almost reaches Kaine's numbers, but not quite. This is about as high as I think turnout can be. Any higher, or if McCauliffe pulls in better numbers than Kaine in Fairfax County, then you can say there is a sizeable demographic shift.
As for the least 20 of the 134 County/City-County regions in VA, I ran the following simulation awhile back. Because the numbers are overall lower, the margin for error is less. I have Cuccinelli winning here 56-44%, but this did not take Sarvis into account at the time. I have no reason to believe McCauliffe won't hit his basic target here, but that Ken will fall of short with a split vote.
For Cucinelli to pull the comeback, he MUST garner close to 115,00-120,000 votes in Fairfax County. If the voter turnout exceeds 280,000, add the proportional thousands to his required total to adjust. At this stage I do not see it. He must also meet his targets in the lower population areas.
Highland: Total 1,051 - Ken (675) Terry (376)
Norton: Total: 950 - Ken (653) Terry (297)
Bath: Total: 1604 - Ken (828) Terry (776)
Galax: Total: 1,295 - Ken (733) Terry (562)
Covington Total: 1,514 - Ken (478) Terry (1,036)
Buena Vista: Total: 1,440 - Ken (907) Terry (533)
Craig Total: 1,604 - Ken (1,089) Terry (515)
Lexington Total: 1,579 - Ken (676) Terry (903)
Emporia Total: 1,257 - Ken (709) Terry (550)
Bedford Total: 1,624 - Ken (993) Terry (631)
Bland Total: 1,871 - Ken (1,436) Terry (435)
King&Queen Total: 1,877 - Ken (1,156) Terry (721)
Richmond County Total: 2,165 - Ken (1,469) Terry (696)
Charles City Total: 2,209 - Ken (935) Terry (1,274)
Surry Total: 2,336 - Ken (1,069) Terry (1,267)
Rappahannock Total: 2,832 - Ken (1,571) Terry (1,261)
Franklin Total: 2,078 - Ken (913) Terry (1,165)
Manassas Total: 1,831 - Ken (951) Terry (880)
Greensville Total: 2,793 - Ken (1,271) Terry (1,522)
Cumberland Total: 2,877 - Ken (1,650) Terry (1,227)
Radford Total: 2,731 - Ken (1,462) Terry (1,269)
Matthews Total: 3,389 - Ken (2,407) Terry (982)
As returns come in, watch these target numbers. They all add up. But when I did these, I did not account for Sarvis, and I suspect he will pull from Ken's total.
“Is this too early?”
Nah, they’ll call it for McCauliflower pretty soon. Watch for speeding cars flying from precint to precinct with unmarked boxes.
The lightly populated counties of Gloucester, New Kent, King William and Middlesex are pro-GOP locales. Both New Kent and Gloucester supported Romney in 2012 in with 60+% support.
Also,
Based on Polling data, it looks to be (D) and (R) turnout at 35% +/- 1% with Indies pulling 30%
Looks like Females will be 54% to 46% for Males. Normal is 53-47 or 52-48.
AA Turnout projected at 15%, could reach 16%. Whites will be 76-77%, with other (Asian, Latino, etc) reaching 9%
I only hope that the KC turnout increases. It is still a bit early to throw in the towel IMHO!!! And...please pass this important tidbit out to the stay-at-home, conservatives!!! The just released Gallup daily poll has Obama at just a 39% approval..with 53% disapproval, devastating numbers!!! Conservatives...just get out there and vote for KC!!! Headline on Drudge, right now!!!
yes...the polls are still open. It’s too early for this defeatist crap.
These days , ya never know,, anything from global warming to public indifference may sway the voters.. Some say, Virginny has changed,,It’s like the DC Fed crowd has swollen it’s masses and Lordy only knows how many illegal votes will be cast.. Hopefully, enough of the sane ones will show up and respect their fellow citizens and do the Right thing. Anything else stinks.. Once a clintinoid, yada yada.
The problem is Cuccinelli is not only running against the dimoKKKRATS but also the GOPE. I am afraid it is going to be this way for some time to come.
So, basically, the Libertarian faction is going to screw the pooch once again - and take what’s left of the country down the crapper with them ... I am really beginning to loathe the obstinate refusal to live in reality, rather to pursue their “impossible dream” - the one that invariably turns victory into defeat, and brings Americans ever deeper into the communist nightmare. If VA puts McAuliffe into the Governor’s mansion, then you might as well kiss this country goodbye - because I think this contest a very good bellwether for what the 2014 midterms will produce - much to the surprise of many ... Some just refuse to see how far gone we are.
Obama Campaign Bundler Helping Fund Libertarian in Tight Election
Excerpts:
A major Democratic Party benefactor and Obama campaign bundler helped pay for professional petition circulators responsible for getting Virginia Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Robert C. Sarvis on the ballot — a move that could split conservative votes in a tight race.
Campaign finance records show the Libertarian Booster PAC has made the largest independent contribution to Sarvis’ campaign, helping to pay for professional petition circulators who collected signatures necessary to get Sarvis’ name on Tuesday’s statewide ballot.
Austin, Texas, software billionaire Joe Liemandt is the Libertarian Booster PAC’s major benefactor. He’s also a top bundler for President Barack Obama. This revelation comes as Virginia voters head to the polls Tuesday in an election where some observers say the third-party gubernatorial candidate could be a spoiler for Republican Ken Cuccinelli.
According to Virginia election filings posted by the Virginia Public Access Project, Liemandt contributed $150,000 of the Texas-based Libertarian Booster PAC’s $229,000 revenue. The Libertarian Booster PAC reported providing $11,454 to pay for signature collection, yard signs and campaign materials for Sarvis and another $4,690 for four Libertarian candidates running for the Virginia state legislature.
BKMK
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FRiends-need some help. Would someone please post the story on Obama Campaign bundler helping fund libertarian in tight VA race? I’m on my cellphone and can’t get home for an hour or more. The story is on the blaze. And yes, its hugh and series!
Thanks and pray for the Commonwealth.
Number 152 at my precinct this morning at 0700. Pretty conservative district in West Hanover.
Voted at 7 am this morning, no one in line, hoping this means the Demoncrats stay home.
Heading out to give the finger to Obama from Chesterfield...
Would like to point out that Chesterfield and Henrico Counties are voting today against a meals tax. We are 99.999% Repuke.
Turnout stil low in NVa!!!
Clarendon in Arlington only at 18% as of 3:10! More here
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/11/05/Early-Reports-on-Turnout-for-Virginia-Governor-s-Election-A-Trickle
Been seeing tweets ALL DAY from ID’s with only 2 or 3 posts in their history (all supporting Dems) urging vote for McAuliffe.
Seems the “machine” is active.