Posted on 10/27/2012 3:39:14 PM PDT by nwrep
Click on the link below for the analysis.
There are some good points that this blog makes about why Ohio might be out of reach for Romney.
It boils down to the fact that all polls show the race as tied as best in Ohio - not a single poll has shown R&R leading there. The average lead for 0 based on OH state polls is around 2 points, enough to put him over the top in Ohio based on historical trends correlating polls to actual results.
I have read articles here from prognosticators, tea leaf readers and political analysts from NRO who passionately argue that:
a. We have closed the gap in early polling and will have an easier time overcoming the D+ advantage on election day
b. Due to a D advantage in early polling, likely voter screens are contaminated, and therefore we should ignore the polls.
While (a) sounds like a reasonable argument, (b) sounds like denial. State level polling (which I believe more than passionate entreaties by earnest Freepers) is still not showing R&R in a comfortable position there.
Without Ohio, it becomes a dice roll, other polls showing close races in WI, MI, PA, NV notwithstanding, since we cannot bank on those states.
The only thing going for R&R right now is comfortable leads in Gallup and Rasmussen national polls. The state by state picture is very different, and points to 0 leading in EVs. Talk of a R&R landslide is dangerous and counter-productive at this point.
Comments?
Rasmussen had it tied yesterday, I believe.
We're very close to a "tipping point". I fear for the life my grandchildren will have. Having spent a week in the Florida panhandle, I'm energized with the massive anti-Obama energy down there. But we may somehow have to divide the country between workers and drones. I'm not sure if that is even possible.
Thanks for the info and the link.
>> I wouldn’t give drinking or strangling liberals such short shrift.
LOL! Yeah, I think I’ll have a couple of beers and go out and find me a liberal. Fortunately for them, they’re scarce as hen’s teeth around here so I probably won’t succeed in hunting one down... :-)
Five Thirty Eight is highly partisan and extremely unreliable.
Real Clear Politics, which averages all the polls (the good ones and the not-so-good ones), has the following states listed as tossups:
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada. Some of these shouldn’t even be close to being tossups in a normal year.
I’m in Oregon. Can’t swing a stick without hittin’ one.
Yeah, a polling firm TCJ came out this week showing Romney leading Ohio. Ras has it tied, IIRC...Mitt and his pathetic opponent are BOTH campaigning, LS our fellow FREEPer has been posting early voting analysis for weeks now, and momentum is clearly with Republicans.
For all these reasons I still think Ohio is in play for Romney and I won’t buy the reasoning of a clearly in-the-tank liberal NY SLIMES hack.
Mitt needs together a van full of Somalis.
Yes, I have read that, and it is very encouraging. It is a bit difficult to correlate that with polling data to date, but great news nevertheless.
Storm P: “It’s tough making predictions, especially about the future.”
Nate Silver’s a statistician who claims that he can predict the future by aggregating polling data and adding his proprietary magic sauce (aka fudge factor). He’s dined off his moneyball fame for over a decade and was either good or lucky re the 2010 election. I think he was lucky. We’ll see.
Let me explain why Romney will win Ohio by 5 points or more.
Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 4.5 points. McCain was a dud, Obama was new, fresh, and not George Bush. Does anyone think that Obama is in a stronger position today than 2008? No. Next, Obama’s numbers are off in every state that surrounds Ohio. In West Virginia, dem primary voters awarded a convicted felon with 43% of the vote; Kentucky dems gave “uncommitted” 41% of the vote. Obama isn’t even campaigning in Indiana, which he carried by point in 2008. And most believe that Michigan and Pa. are competitive. Are we to believe that the Ohio state line has magically sealed off all of these dropping numbers? No way. Next, the early/absentee numbers are devastating for the dems. There is strong evidence that blacks and college kids aren’t early voting at anywhere close the pace they did in 2008. Several counties with college campuses or large black populations or both are showing a noticeable drop-off in dem voting. In fact, the only county where dems are over-performing Republicans in early voting is Jefferson County, which is in the heart of coal country right smack dab on the West Virginia border. Finally, we should remember that Obama severely underperfomed John Kerry’s 2004 vote total (this underperformance was off-set by a bigger Republican drop-off). The reason? Working white guys did not come out to vote for Obama. Do we really think the white, working-class dems are going to come out in droves for Obama? No. What does this mean: Dems will have a noticeable drop-off across their entire base. Republcians are juiced. Romney will carry Ohio by 5 points, mimimum.
I wish I could believe you on this, but I heard similar type commentary here about Angle in Nevada, 2008 stuff with some states for McCain, etc.
Romney is not ahead in Ohio, but that doesn’t mean he is out. Zero is still below 50% but Ohio is hugely important (understatement).
All this talk of a landslide is complete nonsense. Get out and vote for RR and pray Obama doesn’t get another term.
Oh kiss my ass. I am concerned because of MASSIVE fraud activities having NOTHING to do with Nate Silver and his predictive analytics.
Good post, and my thoughts exactly.
And this is a great passage from the NRO article linked a few posts above: “...if you had any question as to whether or not Team Obama sees that writing on the wall, you can just watch their recent campaign activity for confirmation. A campaign with a robust, revved-up base does not sharpen attacks on core base issues like abortion, focus interviews on the Daily Show and MTV, and hold rallies almost exclusively on college campuses. There’s just over a week to go and the real battle should be for the middle. Every minute that the Obama campaign can’t make a compelling argument to the middle is a minute lost to Romney and they know it, and it has them terrified.”
Stop the Eeyoring with the fear porn.
This will show up in the State races.
You will see Romney win Ohio.
If in Sept we could have been told we would be up 5pts in the national polls and tied in the swing states we would be delirious.
If you don't believe it, fine, on Nov.6th we will see who was right.
Until then, save the 'we can't win' nonsense, we are winning.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.