Posted on 10/27/2012 3:39:14 PM PDT by nwrep
Click on the link below for the analysis.
There are some good points that this blog makes about why Ohio might be out of reach for Romney.
It boils down to the fact that all polls show the race as tied as best in Ohio - not a single poll has shown R&R leading there. The average lead for 0 based on OH state polls is around 2 points, enough to put him over the top in Ohio based on historical trends correlating polls to actual results.
I have read articles here from prognosticators, tea leaf readers and political analysts from NRO who passionately argue that:
a. We have closed the gap in early polling and will have an easier time overcoming the D+ advantage on election day
b. Due to a D advantage in early polling, likely voter screens are contaminated, and therefore we should ignore the polls.
While (a) sounds like a reasonable argument, (b) sounds like denial. State level polling (which I believe more than passionate entreaties by earnest Freepers) is still not showing R&R in a comfortable position there.
Without Ohio, it becomes a dice roll, other polls showing close races in WI, MI, PA, NV notwithstanding, since we cannot bank on those states.
The only thing going for R&R right now is comfortable leads in Gallup and Rasmussen national polls. The state by state picture is very different, and points to 0 leading in EVs. Talk of a R&R landslide is dangerous and counter-productive at this point.
Comments?
...By NATE SILVER...
nuff said
Wait before you go remember this was in the NY Times that bastion of truth. We should all just forget about voting if the Times says Obama has Ohio. Our time would be better spent learning the um um um Obama song! /s
The conventional (and only) wisdom is that Romney needs OH or WI, CO, NH, NV and IA or some combination thereof. Is there any polling that shows him with a real lead in those states? Don’t believe so. Maybe even or up in one of them, but he does not have what he needs as of now. So the national polls are good news but the states are really lagging at this point.
I believe that is the point that was being made.
As an oldtime FReeper, I am disturbed by the over-confidence (arrogance?) of far too many of my brethren who think R/R are coasting to victory on some kind of wave. You guys need to understand how Obama has HAMMERED Romney with outsourcing and Bain lies in Ohio for 4 months, eroding his position with white blue collar males. Romney has FAILED to counter this onslaught with ads exposing Obama’s stimulus outsourcing, GE links, Wall St. ties and failure to prosecute a SINGLE financial exec from Wall St. or Fannie Mae. The battle has bee one-sided, and the early vote has favored Obama. In addition Obama is engaging is MASSIVE voter fraud in Ohio - not just the Somali shenanigans we see today, but also student from out of state registering to vote from temporary, shared addresses which will NEVER be checked - spiking the Obama vote totals by potentially a thousands or more votes. This is NOT a fair fight, and I do not see R/R fighting dirty on the ground. I am VERY concerned this race is already lost in a fog of fraud in Ohio.
From the signs I see in my little town of Northfield Center, midway between Cleveland and Akron, Romney is not doing well. Yard signs are at least 5/6 to 1 for obama. Disappointing that so many of my neighbors are completely braindead!
Silver, like the rest of the New York Times writers, is simply giving his readers what they want to read.
A goodly number of political writers have learned that it's just "good business" (see Buchanan, Patrick -- who may have invented the genre).
Your “concern” for R+R in Ohio is making me cry! /S
I want an FR “like” button for that!
Wow I used to live near that area. It was always loaded with ethnic Dems but must have gotten much worse.
Leaving 30 yrs ago was the best thing I ever did. Thanks to “boy wonder” Dennis Kuchinich for inspiring me to head for the exit.
The turnout model of turnout models has this +1.5 D OVER 2008 turnout. (It’s either + 6 or +6.5 to +4.5 or +5 actual 2008).
I don’t see how the Repub is gaining in *every* state EXCEPT Ohio, where Obama is outperforming 2008 results.
Here’s the deal. If Romney wins 50-46, or in that range, he will win enough EVs to win the presidency. It will just shake out that way.
No candidate in history has ever scored 50% and lost the presidency (not incl 1877 Compromise). No candidate has ever won the national vote by more than 1% and lost the presidency.
It’s the loser (or the underdog) who needs to find paths via the electoral college.
If Obama were up 51-46 and 50-46 in the national polls, we would not be hearng a peep about how Ohio could impact the election.
Obama is showing up in Youngstown, Ohio with Bill Clinton less than two weeks out from the election. We’re talking heart of unions, General Motors/Delphi, powerful Dem machine, etc. There is NO need under for ONE, let alone TWO of them to show up if they were not concerned about Ohio. Biden was just here too...
My apologies, faulty memory. CNN has it +5 for Obama, not +9.
LOL
My band got a UAW clambake gig one Summer. Dennis was there. I’m 6’3”. When we went thru the introduction line, I grabbed his little hand, pulled him close so he had to strain up his little turkey neck to look at me, and I told him I’d never vote for him! UAW never hired us again! I’d like to get my hands on his wife though!
Given the classlessness, criminality AND incompetence of this administration...it should be a 50 state sweep and R&R should win by 20 points.
The fact it won't be that way scares me. People are idiots and moochers.
Concerned or just keenly aware that all they have to do is keep Romney from winning OH and it’s just about game over.
I’d just hate to make history in the wrong kind of way.
I think Romney will win Ohio.. Consider the source. Unless you are a concerned troll.
>> As an oldtime FReeper, I am disturbed by the over-confidence (arrogance?) of far too many of my brethren who think R/R are coasting to victory on some kind of wave.
Who thinks that?
I certainly don’t.
What the DATA tell me is this: the race is in a statistical TIE. There is essentially no swing-state polling or national polling that has Romney or Obama with a lead above the MOE. (Florida may be the sole exception to that fact.)
However...
Since it could go either way, DAMNED if I’m going to wring my hands and get all weepy and ASSUME that it’s going the WRONG way because some faggot from the NYT says so!
I am BELIEVING in the blessing, and not the curse.
You get all nancy-boy weepy and hand-wringy and whatever if it makes you feel better.
I have faith in God and I’m maintaining a healthy OPTIMISM in the face of the evil forces that would drag us down.
Since according to the FACTS and the DATA the race is essentially EVEN, why not BELIEVE that it could actually go the way of righteousness and light, and speak words of encouragement and blessing over our candidate and our future, instead of descending into pessimism based on what some godless NYT fruitcake thinks?
Just saying. You do what you want. I know what I’ll do.
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