The conventional (and only) wisdom is that Romney needs OH or WI, CO, NH, NV and IA or some combination thereof. Is there any polling that shows him with a real lead in those states? Don’t believe so. Maybe even or up in one of them, but he does not have what he needs as of now. So the national polls are good news but the states are really lagging at this point.
I believe that is the point that was being made.
Here’s the deal. If Romney wins 50-46, or in that range, he will win enough EVs to win the presidency. It will just shake out that way.
No candidate in history has ever scored 50% and lost the presidency (not incl 1877 Compromise). No candidate has ever won the national vote by more than 1% and lost the presidency.
It’s the loser (or the underdog) who needs to find paths via the electoral college.
If Obama were up 51-46 and 50-46 in the national polls, we would not be hearng a peep about how Ohio could impact the election.