Let me explain why Romney will win Ohio by 5 points or more.
Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 4.5 points. McCain was a dud, Obama was new, fresh, and not George Bush. Does anyone think that Obama is in a stronger position today than 2008? No. Next, Obama’s numbers are off in every state that surrounds Ohio. In West Virginia, dem primary voters awarded a convicted felon with 43% of the vote; Kentucky dems gave “uncommitted” 41% of the vote. Obama isn’t even campaigning in Indiana, which he carried by point in 2008. And most believe that Michigan and Pa. are competitive. Are we to believe that the Ohio state line has magically sealed off all of these dropping numbers? No way. Next, the early/absentee numbers are devastating for the dems. There is strong evidence that blacks and college kids aren’t early voting at anywhere close the pace they did in 2008. Several counties with college campuses or large black populations or both are showing a noticeable drop-off in dem voting. In fact, the only county where dems are over-performing Republicans in early voting is Jefferson County, which is in the heart of coal country right smack dab on the West Virginia border. Finally, we should remember that Obama severely underperfomed John Kerry’s 2004 vote total (this underperformance was off-set by a bigger Republican drop-off). The reason? Working white guys did not come out to vote for Obama. Do we really think the white, working-class dems are going to come out in droves for Obama? No. What does this mean: Dems will have a noticeable drop-off across their entire base. Republcians are juiced. Romney will carry Ohio by 5 points, mimimum.
Good post, and my thoughts exactly.
And this is a great passage from the NRO article linked a few posts above: “...if you had any question as to whether or not Team Obama sees that writing on the wall, you can just watch their recent campaign activity for confirmation. A campaign with a robust, revved-up base does not sharpen attacks on core base issues like abortion, focus interviews on the Daily Show and MTV, and hold rallies almost exclusively on college campuses. There’s just over a week to go and the real battle should be for the middle. Every minute that the Obama campaign can’t make a compelling argument to the middle is a minute lost to Romney and they know it, and it has them terrified.”