Researcher Predicts 80-year "Little Ice Age" to begin soon.

Milenio ^ | August 19, 200 | Víctor Manuel Velasco Herrera

[Kenny Bunk]

An expert from the National Autonomous University of Mexico predicted that the Earth will enter a "Little Ice Age" which will last from 60 to 80 years and may be caused by the decrease in solar activity.

Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics at UNAM, showcased his theories during an international conference he led at the Centre for Applied Sciences and Technological Development. Velasco, a specialist in remote sensing systems, said that the recent rupture of the Perito Moreno glacier on the border of Chile and Argentina, unusual for having produced a full austral winter, was not due to global warming. He theorizes that the event was caused during a drought by falling water levels in the river, coupled with colder temperatures.

Dr. Velasco described as "erroneous" predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), of a gradual increase in temperature, the so-called global warming. The models and forecasts of the IPCC "are incorrect because they are based solely on mathematical models and do not include, for example, solar activity," said Velasco, who is also a specialist in predictive image processing. "The phenomenon of climate change," he added, "should include both internal and external factors. Internal would include volcanic activity,while external causes include solar activity."

"Curiously, the Sun never has been seen as a cooling agent, but as a cause of warming. It clearly has roles in both cooling and warming," he said.

At present, Velasco holds that the world is going through a transition phase of considerably diminished solar activity, "so that in two years or so, there will be the beginnings of a small ice age that lasts from 60 to 80 years,and the immediate consequence of this" he added, "will be drought."

Analyses by the IPCC concluded that the "Little Ice Age",a cold period that lasted since the beginning of the fourteenth century until the mid-nineteenth century. was a regional phenomena or accentuation of local effects. But Velasco disagrees. He says that, "Current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of abnormal heat or cold in this timeframe," and that it must have been caused by other factors.

Highlights and Dates
According to Velasco, effects will be clearly observable within in approximately two years. However, in early July, Velasco Herrera said that satellite data indicate it is possible that this period of global cooling may have even already begun as early as 2005.
He has predicted that cooling would fully arrive within 30 or 40 years.

[Clintonfatigued]

Global warming will start an ice age? Fascniating!

[ModelBreaker]

I want to read about how he thinks the Sun is going to be a COOLing agent! What, a giant heat sink?

Think about it just a little. It's not to hard to imagine. Grossly oversimple example. Put a lightbulb on a dimmer. Turn it all the way up. Put your hand a few inches away and feel the amount of heat. Then have a friend turn down the dimmer. Relatively speaking, you have just experienced global cooling on your hand.

I know it's not that simple. But I thought a flippant post deserved a flippant answer.

[Myrddin]

I've got about 6 weeks to get in shape for shoveling snow. We usually get 2 or 3 snows with sufficient accumulation to warrant shoveling. Sometimes multiple times during a given storm. A pile of snow 6 feet high on either side of my driveway is typical. I look forward to having my lawn covered with snow all winter. It allows free time on the weekend in place of mowing lawns for about 4 1/2 hours each week.

[GOPJ]

Thanks for the ping.

[Impy]

That’s why they call it “climate change” now. Hot/cold, same difference. Here in Chicago at least it’s been cooler than in recent years. This past winter was a big snowy b*8ch. They realize they can’t claim warming when it’s obviously not so.

As I understand it the original story 30+ years ago was the the next ice age was coming, not global warming. Then it gets a little warmer and suddenly the tune changes.

[palmer]

The solar flux seems to have bottomed out in July and has been upticking slightly in August. Therefore I think July was the start of SC24 and we should see more SC24 spots by the end of the year. But the steepness of the rampup is still TBD.

[Rurudyne]

Not everyone accepts the idea that cosmic rays help to cause clouds.

In the AWG camp I remember a recent British study that said they had examined either 2 (possibly 3) solar cycles to see if there was a relationship. They said that one showed a potential correlation but the other didn’t and so the claimed to have debunked the idea (amazing to think of what they would do if they could get AGW data to yield such positive results ... I mean, I doubt it would be viewed as a refutation).

[Rurudyne]

Very interesting!

Thanks!

[palmer]

This cycle is already long and weak, and looking longer and weaker by the day.

SC23 was about normal (e.g. see http://sidc.oma.be/html/wolfmms.html after a relatively strong 1980 and 1990. The current minimum seems to be ending, see for example http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/index.shtml where flux seems to (barely) bottom out in July.

[aruanan]

I would think with more cosmic radiation not being deflected due to decreased solar activity, there would be increased clouds, shouldn’t there also be increased moisture?

this scientist seems to think the opposite; that with the cooling trend, there will be a drought. That’s baffling.

A generally colder earth ends up with a lot of water sequestered in snow and ice. This was why the sea levels during the last ice age were hundreds of feet below present sea levels. Also, the colder the air, the less moisture it can hold.

[the_devils_advocate_666]

I don’t know what to be afraid of now - boiling to death or freezing?

Just so you know that either way we're DOOMED!

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks neverdem.

· join · view topics · view or post blog · bookmark · post new topic ·

[bert]

We haven’t had a real snow in so long I can’t remember.

I had a dearly loved GMC Sierra for 25 years and sold it 2 years ago. It had good studded snow tires that never touched snow or ice while on the truck.

If the weather reverts to the mean and we begin to get snow like we use to..... chaos and death on the roads around here.

[Myrddin]

We had an early Sept 1 snow last year. The last snow this year was May 1st....7 inches. The early snows tend to be gone quickly. The snow that falls by Thanksgiving often lingers until mid-February. Our late Nov/early Dec temps have been as low as -21 F in the last couple years. I'm currently enjoying my recent purchase of a Yamaha TW200 motorcycle. I figure I have about six weeks before I have to store it until Spring.

[Gondring]

I know it's not that simple. But I thought a flippant post deserved a flippant answer.

Wow, he's a real genius, eh? Nobody has EVER thought of reduced insolation leading to lower temperatures here! Absolutely AMAZING!

[Kenny Bunk]

Siberian peat bogs

I don't think young Ivan is about to shoulder the slane and go out to stack peat, pal. What with all the oil, gas, nuclear, coal,just plain firewood,and vodka the Russkis have on hand, keeping warm shouldn't be a problem, no matter what happens..

[El Gato]

Predict away, but nobody predicted our current lack of sunspots, and nobody knows when that might end.

That same lack of sunspots was evident during the last "Little Ice Age", about 1650 to 1700. In sunspot terms it's called the "Maunder Minimum", but otherwise, it's the "little ice age", that was still being felt as late as the American Revolution, when Washington had to contend with ice flows on the Delaware, when he famously crossed it to attack the Hessians in New Jersey.

[El Gato]

There goes his Nobel Prize.

Not if he's young enough to see his predictions vindicated. Here's yesterday's image of the sun (19 Aug 2008)

See any spots?

[Freedom'sWorthIt]

Thank you for the working link.

Anyone know where I can get a “factual” scientific non biased presentation of what I thought was factual:

That the temp of the earth over the past 7 years has decreased, not increased.

No matter what I say, I cannot convince several NPR brainwashed global warming zealots that the temp is going down, not up.

Thanks

[grey_whiskers]

Do you have a source?

This needs looking into...

Cheers!