Why a McCain Win May Be Bad for GOP, Good for Democrats

Real Clear Politics ^ | 13 June 2008 | Stuart Rothenberg

[shrinkermd]

Republicans and conservatives are rallying behind Sen. John McCain's White House bid, but not because they are so enamored with him or his agenda. Instead, their loyalty is based on their perception that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama as president, particularly with large Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress, would be utterly disastrous.

Regardless of whether you agree with them about the results of a Democratic presidential victory later this year, a McCain victory might produce its own series of domino-like events that ultimately might hurt the Grand Old Party.

...I don't necessarily agree with Stewart that a McCain victory in November would lead to the "eradication" of the GOP, but it's easy to see how a McCain presidency could end up being a nightmare for Republicans.

In the worst-case scenario, a McCain victory in November could likely lead to a Republican bloodletting that would tear apart the GOP well before 2012, contribute to another good Democratic election in 2010 and hand Democrats such a strong advantage during redistricting that Republicans wouldn't be able to recover for years.

[DoughtyOne]

That’s right, change the subject. Use the old uber litmus test to see if I’m a good little Republican.

What a dumb ass.

[Checkers]

“You don’t want to vote for him fine, but please think of what happens when you let democrats control the whole enchilada and at least tone down the infighting.”

Last time the Dems controlled the whole enchilada, we got 1994.

Bring on the Backlash!

[Paul Ross]

Republicans and conservatives are rallying behind Sen. John McCain's White House bid

Huh? Since when? Might vote for him as the lesser of evil, but he's still bona fide, unquestionably EVIL.

I won't be supporting him...and in my state he got his rear handed to him handily. Our delegates don't support him. Not really. They might give lip service to it for party unity's sake...but hey, he's Mr. Maverick.

He never cared one crap about unity before.

Now he will reap the Whirlwind he has sown.

[Antoninus]

I vote for conservatives first. Party second.

You and I are on exactly the same wavelength--for most elected offices. For instance, I won't vote for Dick Zimmer over Frank Lousenberg here in NJ. He's one senator out of 100 and electing a liberal Republican in NJ will not help matters here one bit.

But the presidency is a completely different animal and the idea of putting an outright radical Democrat in office with majorities in both houses of Congress is unthinkable to me. With Obama, we'll be looking at 3 more Ruth Bader Ginsbergs--or worse--on the SCOTUS. Considering how much real power the SCOTUS now wields, that would be a disaster. With McCain, we at least have a shot at someone decent.

If you care about this country, our military, and our way of life, Obama should be anathema to you.

[Checkers]

“Here onn FR we used to call pro-McCain posters trolls, now we call them republicans.”

POST OF THE DAY!

[Antoninus]

That’s right, change the subject. Use the old uber litmus test to see if I’m a good little Republican.

I don't want you to be a good little Republican. I want you to be an annoying, angry conservative who's active within the party and a continuous thorn in the side of your local leaders. If more of us were, things would start to change. The problem is, too many of us are just keyboard commandos.

That MUST change if the conservative movement is to flex its muscles again.

[Checkers]

“Do you think the Conservative message and ideals are what should drive this nation? I do. I consider John McCain to be a spike in the casket of Conservatism. He sill not appoint Conservatives. He will not advance Conservative ideals. He will not advance Conservative policy. He will defeat Conservatism on all but one or two fronts. Even there he will reach out to Democrats to advance his Iraq policy. Oh he won’t do it up front. He’ll do it by cutting military budgets, or some other thing behind the scenes.

This has been the McCain modus operandi for the last twenty years. His voting record looks good, but his side deals, policy statements and reaching out to the Democrats almost exclisively, say otherwise.

This man will destroy Conservatism as a movement.

As bad as Obama is, Conservatism would thrive under his first term. The opposition would be fierce.

Under McCain, there simply wouldn’t be a vehicle to advance Conservatism. The party leaders, prominant elected officials and even state leaders would be forced to go left or be shut out of the process.

A McCain victory, would be a total disaster for the nation. Not only would the nation go left, the aparatus to turn it back right would be gone.”

I wish I could say you are wrong.

You’re not.

[Checkers]

You’re welcome.

[CharlesWayneCT]

The hope that somehow an Obama victory and 2 years of democrats being in complete control would somehow swing enough state houses our way to effect redistricting ignores the fact that a loss of that proportion will leave the GOP so demoralized that they would be unlikely to recover at a state level to do anything.

[Luke21]

White was a terrific justice. He and Rehnquist were the only dissenters on Roe vs Wade. Nixon’s guys, Burger, Stewart, and Powell were no great shakes. Ford’s was a disaster and is still plaguing us. Even Reagan gave us stinking Kennedy and O’Connor.

But Ike was the worst. He chose Earl Warren and William Brennan. John Harlan was good, but wasn’t on the court that long.

Most of the time, Republican presidents get it wrong, and that’s not counting a guy like McCain who is already a lib.

McCain is a betrayer now. I have no idea why anyone would trust this guy to do anything after being elected.

[Checkers]

I respectfully disagree.

But we're both speculating about the future.

Btw, I am undecided about the election. My level of “demoralization” will not be effected by the Presidential Race results in all likelihood.

[Sprite518]

LOL! I LOVE IT!

[Checkers]

You earned it!

[DoughtyOne]

That’s right, change the subject. Use the old uber litmus test to see if I’m a good little Republican.

I don't want you to be a good little Republican. I want you to be an annoying, angry conservative who's active within the party and a continuous thorn in the side of your local leaders. If more of us were, things would start to change. The problem is, too many of us are just keyboard commandos.

That MUST change if the conservative movement is to flex its muscles again.

Look, let's say your motives are pure and your suggestion is well meaning.  You are dreaming if you think Conservatism grows under a McCain Presidency.  I don't care how many grass roots people stand up and attempt to take the party back, the man at the top wields more power.  Do you think the grass roots is going to rule, or the winning track record of John McCain will?  Here's what I mean by that.

While you're trying to convince the party players that Conservatism is the way to go, John McCain the consumate leftist will have already proven what it takes to get elected today in the U.S.A.  Who is going to listen to you, and why?  The RNC will fall in line behind everything McCain wants.  Our Congress members will fall in line because they want access to the White House and the realization of quid pro quo.  McCain will bludgeon the state party leaders to fall in line with his dogma.  And here on this forum, you'll have the idolitors and groupies doing their thing, defending every move McCain makes.  Right now you're defending McCain.  What makes you think it will be any different after the election?  Folks will find reasons to defend "our guy" because he's "our guy".  "Oh, he did that.  Well that makes sense.  Can you imagine if the Demcrats had done it?  It would be ever so much more worse.  I fully support McCain."  You've seen this over and over.  How are you going to like it when McCain turns half this forum into lap dogs?

Where do you expect to fit in with this?  Is this the environment that you think will cause a rebirth, when half or more of the grass roots of what was known as Conservatism is supporting a consumate leftist?

If McCain loses, the party needs you.  If he wins you'll be the fifteenth tit that the party just doesn't need.  It's as simple as that IMO.  Good luck.

[EveningStar]

Time for a reminder :)

Six reasons to vote for John McCain

[Sprite518]

“If you care about this country, our military, and our way of life”

Ditto McCain. This is why I will not vote for McCain. Think about it. Borders, language and culture.

McCain is for Illegal immigration and the Environmental wackos. Those two issues alone could kill western society as we know it. Plus the Environmental wakos will destroy our economy.

[DoughtyOne]

I wish it caused happiness inside me to be right here. It doesn’t. I do appreciate your response.

[dmanLA]

You guys need to think outside the box. We are currently at war even though a majority of people wouldn’t know it. What would happen if a man with questionable loyalties (Obama) gets elected? On which side would we fight then? Finally, who says we’ll have another ‘fair’ election?

[Designer]

Six reasons to vote for John McCain

That is an extremely poor argument considering his record.

[Luke21]

Don't forget that there are at least three types of advocacies going on here. The first is predominant, telling us to vote for something awful because we'll get worse under an Obama presidency. There's a lot of that on every thread.

But the second bunch of McCain people actually agree with him. They are the former Giuliani people and wideawakes who we argued and fought with last year. They are liberals who transferred their loyalty to McCain.

Another McCain voting bloc is the foreign policy conservatives, who favor the war. Many of them will give him the benefit of the doubt because he was a POW and military man.

Without defining conservatism, we can't hope to rebuild our coalition. Let those who want to vote for him do so. McCain isn't a conservative, and isn't much of a Republican. But there are people who just vote the “R,” for whatever reason. God bless them.