Posted on 01/29/2008 11:55:19 AM PST by Sideshow Bob
There have been more than a few recent articles and editorials attempting to affix blame for the demise of the Republican Party. Peggy Noonan blames President Bush. Rush Limbaugh believes a McCain nomination will kill the party. However, even in a worse case scenario, the Republican Party will probably stagger along for several years much like the last decade of the Whigs. Conservative Republicans should probably be more concerned about the impending demise of the conservative movement within the party. Some individuals can be blamed more than others, but this folly has many fathers. The latest blow to conservatives has come from within – thanks to Dr. James Dobson and other egotistical evangelicals. Political doomsayers may be correct and it is likely too late to save the conservative movement in 2008. Conservatives can correct their path to destruction for 2010 and beyond, but only if they look back at recent history, recognize the actions and actors that have brought the party and movement to this point, and to learn from a long series of missteps and mistakes.
Ronald Reagan built a winning coalition of conservatives, independents and establishment moderate Republicans in 1980. A coalition of social, economic and security conservatives had come together to form a plurality within the GOP and wrest leadership of the party from the establishment, moderate GOP. The Iran-Contra scandal (Mistake #1) weakened the coalition and the moderate wing of the party regained control of the GOP (Mistake #2), which led to the election of President George H.W. Bush (Mistake #3).
While the elder Bush had adopted – albeit reluctantly – many conservative ideals, he and the moderate GOP leaders advocated a “kinder, gentler” approach (Mistake #4). Conservatives might have been content to take a back seat to moderate GOP leadership, but they read Bush’s lips and their support and enthusiasm for the Republican Party evaporated after the Bush tax increase (Mistake #5). In 1992 some conservatives were taken in by Ross Perot and his anti-establishment, anti-Washington message (Mistake #6). Others just stayed home (Mistake #7) and helped Democrats elect the Dope from Hope, Bill Clinton, with just 43% of the popular vote (Mistake #8).
The only positive to come out of 1992 was that it helped create an opening for an obscure, but brilliant Congressman from Georgia to lead conservatives to regain control of the Republican Party. Newt Gingrich reformed the three-legged conservative coalition and took an upstart innovative approach of leading the GOP from the House with a 1994 national congressional campaign platform – the Contract with America.
It is important to note that prior to the ’94 elections, Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole and other establishment, moderate GOP leaders scoffed at and were dismissive of Gingrich and the Contract. Dole and Senate moderates rode the Contract’s election coattails, but made it plain that the GOP Senate did NOT sign on to the program, was not obligated to it, reluctantly followed Gingrich's lead, and worked to water down each and every one of the Contract's provisions (Mistake #9).
By January 1996, Dole was the presumptive Republican presidential nominee (Mistake #10). Dole sought to convince Speaker Gingrich to fold up the federal government shutdown stalemate with President Clinton and allow Dole to lead the GOP via his presidential campaign.
Dole gave Gingrich the choice of single-handedly continuing the shutdown and fight with Clinton and the media with Candidate Dole seeking a different path from the House GOP or deferring to Dole's presidential campaign and resuming the conservative battle together with Gingrich’s friend Trent Lott to keep President Dole honest after the ’96 elections. Gingrich made the wrong choice (Mistake #11). Gingrich probably should have run for President himself in 1996 (Mistake #12).
We all remember what happened. By caving in and compromising on the shutdown, the conservative House leadership lost some of their ability to control their more moderate members (Mistake #13). Bob Dole lost (Mistake #14). Trent Lott built his own voice separate from the House (Mistake #15). And with no help from Lott & the GOP Senate and a Clinton veto looming on all conservative issues, Gingrich, Armey & DeLay focused too much of their efforts on the growing Clinton scandals (Mistake #16).
Gingrich was able to maintain order within the House even during the Clinton impeachment. But after the Senate RINOs failed to do their duty and convict Clinton (Mistake #17), the House moderates began feeling their oats (Mistake #18).
Then, the impact of the missing FBI files took effect. Allegations of marital affairs Gingrich and Hyde took their toll (Mistake #19). Seeing his conservative House coalition slowly diminish and Lott's desire to set on a different path, Gingrich stepped down as Speaker (Mistake #20). Then his presumed successor, Bob Livingston from Louisiana, was also taken out by a marital affair (Mistake #21).
House Moderates became emboldened and championed the lackluster Dennis Hastert as Speaker to muzzle Armey & DeLay and appear less confrontational (Mistake #22). This effort also helped to clear the agenda of party leadership for the 2000 GOP presidential candidates (Mistake #23). And in 2000, conservatives settled for the "compassionate conservatism" of George W. Bush (Mistake #24). Many conservatives stayed home, nearly costing Bush the presidency and actually losing GOP control of the Senate in 2000 (Mistake #25).
To be fair, conservatives should thank God everyday for W's leadership in dealing with 9-11. But Bush also squandered the opportunity to push the party and country to the right following that horrible event (Mistake #26). The GOP regained control of the Senate in 2002, but based solely on the country’s fears of Democrats’ inability to deal with national security concerns and not on conservative social and economic principles. Meanwhile, the House drifted further to the center (Mistake #27).
Conservative fears of repeating Florida 2000 helped Bush win reelection in 2004, despite the party's overall drift to the center. By now, any conservative elements in the House and Senate were in complete retreat. The moderates ruled the roost in both houses. RINO defections on the Iraq war (Mistake #28), wasteful earmarks (Mistake #29) and ethics scandals (Mistake #29) were now front and center for the GOP. The only conservative victories of 2005-06 were the confirmations of Roberts and Alito to the Supreme Court. And it took a battle to defeat Bush on his nomination of Harriet Miers to do it.
By Fall 2006 conservatives had become utterly disheartened. Attempts to make the Bush tax cuts permanent stalled (Mistake #30), the continued treachery of Arlen Spector, John McCain, Lindsey Graham and the Gang of 14 (Mistake #31), increased dissatisfaction with George Bush and the Miers nomination debacle all caused conservatives to stay home in November 2006 (Mistake #32). And the GOP lost both the House and Senate.
Occasionally, the conservative movement can still rise up. The reaction to the Amnesty bill was encouraging. But other than that, conservatives have again been wandering in the wilderness. GOP moderates and RINO's have been resistant to allowing a conservative to assume leadership in Congress. And any potential conservative congressional leader has held back (Mistake #33), in part due to the extremely early start of the 2008 presidential race (Mistake #34).
And what did conservatives get for 2008 GOP candidates? Were there any Reagan conservatives who possessed all three legs of the coalition stool - strong national defense, social conservatism, economic conservatism?
Nope.
Instead, we got Rudy Giuliani. An autocrat who has little affection for social conservatives, but pledged to nominate strict construction judges. Whoopee!
Instead, we got John McCain. An angry RINO maverick who enjoys flouting social and economic conservatives AND even the GOP establishment to gain favor and positive reviews from the liberal media.
Instead, we got Mitt Romney, an uber-wealthy GOP establishment moderate. At least Romney panders to social and economic conservatives with recently discovered flip-flopped positions on issues of importance to those two factions.
Instead, we got Mike Huckabee – the Dope from Hope, part II. While he is just as slick and manipulative as Bill Clinton, Huckabee is nowhere near as smart.
Instead, we got Ron Paul, a true blue, libertarian nutbag. Paul has a few economic bona fides that have pulled away a few non-nut job libertarians. But I'm sorry, Dr. Paul is a kook.
Instead, we got the Obscure Four - Tom Tancredo, Alan Keyes, Tommy Thompson & Duncan Hunter. Tancredo & Keyes are single issue candidates. Tommy & Dunc are well-rounded politicians (especially Hunter), but they lacked the ability to have broad nationwide appeal.
Seeing this morass of blech, Fred Thompson entered the fray expecting to be the savior of the Republican Party and the conservative movement. Fred should have been that candidate.
Unfortunately, Dr. James Dobson and a few evangelical leaders decided to cut off their nose to spite their face (Mistake #35). You see, Fred's not a Bible thumper. Neither was Ronald Reagan. And like Reagan, Fred is a bona fide, all-around, federalist conservative. That wasn’t good enough for Dobson. And when Fred refused to kiss Dobson's ring of evangelical purity, Dobson went shopping for a candidate he thought he could control.
Flim Flam Huckabee seized on that opportunity. Huckabee played Dobson into thinking that Dobson could be a GOP kingmaker (Mistake #36). A handful of evangelical leaders blindly pushed Huckabee as a viable conservative (Mistake #37). The media, who knows a GOP loser when they see one, helped fan the flames of Huckabee's support. For a time, the scheme worked. Huckabee won Iowa (Mistake #38), but eventually the truth of Huckabee's Christian Socialism became evident to most conservatives.
But the damage had been done. Social conservatives were now spilt. Some had been taken in by Huckabee's class warfare (Mistake #39). Some had been taken in by the media's false depiction of Fred as a lazy campaigner (Mistake #40) and settled for Romney, Rudy or, worse, McCain (Mistake #41).
Added into this deceptive mix was the ability of independents and Democrats to participate in and distort the Iowa, New Hampshire & South Carolina Republican primaries (Mistake #42). Media darling McCain was back! McCain – the new Comeback Kid – was ready to lead....the GOP down to defeat. Meanwhile, Fred's race and the ability for the GOP to unify behind a Reaganesque conservative died (Mistake #43).
At best, the GOP could still end up with a George W. Bush-lite nominee like Mitt Romney. He will at least pretend to care about conservative ideals from his Country Club wing of the party.
At worst, the GOP could end up with John McCain. McCain, the perennial thorn in the GOP's side who was once touted as a possible VP running mate for John Kerry!
Who knows? It’s still remotely possible that none of the moderates and RINO’s still in the presidential race will win a majority of the primary delegates. Maybe a conservative nominee could still rise up in a brokered GOP convention. Maybe a conservative national congressional campaign like the Contract with America could still arise in time for the 2008 elections. But really, that’s a fantasy.
The reality is that conservatives will have to wait until 2010 or 2012 to reassert itself as the true and legitimate leaders of the Republican Party. The reality is that conservatives have allowed numerous people to make numerous mistakes which have led the movement to this precarious point. The reality is that conservatives and the GOP are now left with this Dobson's Choice of Romney or McCain. Pass the nose clips and prepare for the worst.
***
Sorry, certain evangelicals were either stupid or egotistical in believing that Huckabee's faith trumped all of the negatives of his candidacy.
If we don't recognize our mistakes and learn from them, we'll only repeat them.
You blame Dobson for Fred’s loss, but the fact is, Fred ran a lousy campaign and thumbed his nose at the evangelicals.
The Republican establishment loaded the candidate field with too many social liberals for any of the true social conservatives to get traction early in the primaries.
And now we have but one social conservative left.
As for me, I prefer Huckabee, but will take anybody over Romney. And that’s includes ‘rats if need be.
Mistake #6 wasn't a mistake after all. If Mistake #3 had been reelected, that would've truly made Mistake #6. Had Americans made the mistake of reelecting Bush Sr. he would've continued to destroy the Republican party as Noonan says his son has.
So, if you want to be intellectually honest, if you must blame Perot voters for Clinton's win, then you must give Perot voters credit for the Republican win in '94 because that certainly wouldn't have happened with Bush Sr meandering through another four years.
bump for later reading.
It’s Chuck Norris’s fault!
Actualy, Rush, like me is suggesting that the only thing that will bring Conservatives back together is for someone like Hillary to be in office for very long.
I’ve said it a couple of times, to unite Conservatives will take a Hillary (or even Obama) in office.
I say this because right now the media has pushed out the most Conservative of the candidates, by pushing polls down everyone’s throats, and what’s worse, people who are intelligent and KNOW BETTER have been getting in these very forums and whining about “the most electable” instead of actually standing up, supporting and HELPING people like Hunter and Thompson.
It’s too bad we’re going to see at least four years of a Democrat in office next... because of some of those whiny babies who tried to do the “pragmatic” rather than stand on principles.
Credibility-flush. Writer has personal issues. I stop reading.
Hogwash....
Ouch. I have seen that analogy made more than once lately.
***
Agreed. But conservatives knew the establishment GOP preferred Romney or Giuliani prior to Fred's entry in the race. Dobson's annointing of Huckabee was the final blow that eliminated Thompson's (and even Hunter's) chance at the nomination.
Uh, you might want to read the definitions for "bible thumper" in the Urban Dictionary. "Respectful" is not the first term that comes to mind to describe them . . . .
I think that Rush may be the most afraid of the dilemma that will face him as host if McCain is elected. Will he continue to attack McCain and run the risk of having liberals side with him, or will he grudgingly accept McCain and essentially ignore him in his criticism of liberals. His show could suffer.
President: ANYONE BUT JOHN McCAIN or Hillary Clinton!!!!
The John McCain Truth Files
Capitol Hill staffers rate their bosses. McCain got no glory from those who work with him.
“Every election year we survey top aides on both sides of the aisle—administrative assistants, press secretaries, legislative directors, and chiefs of committee staffs—to get their up-close and personal, and anonymous, views. While there may be lots of partisan backbiting among congress members, their staffers seem far more capable of putting politics aside and making honest judgments. It wasn’t unusual for aides in both parties to name one of their own as “spineless” or give the “workhorse” nod to someone across the aisle. “
Worst Follower 2. John McCain (R-Ariz.)
Show Horse 2. John McCain (R-Ariz.)
Hottest Temper 2. John McCain (R-Ariz.) , known to snap at staff when the cameras are off
http://www.washingtonian.com/articles/mediapolitics/1666.html
McCain’s the candidate of amnesty for illegal aliens.
McCain supports embryonic stem-cell research.
McCain has said “I would not support repeal of Roe vs. Wade”.
McCain opposed the Bush tax cuts, and refuses to sign the “No New Taxes” pledge.
McCain supports legislation that would increase taxes on energy.
McCain was the ring-leader of the Senate “Gang of 14”, which kept the then Senate Republican leadership from ending the ability of Democrats to filibuster Bush’s judicial nominees.
McCain supports legislation to grant due-process rights to terrorists.
McCain sponsored the inept legislation which restricts free-speech rights of those involved
in the political process, (the McCain/Feingold bill)
McCain called evangelical-conservatives an “evil influence” on the Republican Party.
McCain - member of the Keating 5 that caused a bipartisan scandal during the S&L meltdown.
McCain had a recall election ran against him by the conservatives in Arizona.
McCain blocked the investigation into whether Viet Nam and the Soviets were still holding over 600 of our missing POWs in 1990.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1958293/posts?page=52#52
Latest (Jan. 2008) OVERALL Presidential Candidate Ratings On IMMIGRATION
How Good Are The Promises of Each Candidate to PROTECT Workers, Communities and Taxpayers FROM ILLEGAL & OVER-IMMIGRATION?
VERY GOOD# Mitt Romney (28 points)
GOOD# RON PAUL(24 points) # MIKE HUCKABEE(24 points)
POOR# RUDY GIULIANI(7 points)
BAD# JOHN McCAIN (5 points) # JOHN EDWARDS (5 points)
# HILLARY CLINTON (4 points) # BARACK OBAMA (4 points)
Please note that our ratings do NOT amount to endorsements. Nor do they convey anything about the character, the strength or any other positions about the candidates. http://www.betterimmigration.com/candidates/2006/prez2008.html
THE McCAIN WAY - ATTACK REPUBLICANS
.Defending His Amnesty Bill, “Presidential hopeful John McCain - who has been dogged for years by questions about his volcanic temper - erupted in an angry, profanity-laced tirade at a fellow Republican senator, sources told The Post yesterday. In a heated dispute over immigration-law overhaul, McCain screamed, ‘F— you!’ at Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who had been raising concerns about the legislation. ‘This is chickens—stuff,’ McCain snapped at Cornyn, according to several people in the room off the Senate floor Thursday. ‘You’ve always been against this bill, and you’re just trying to derail it.’” (Charles Hurt, “Raising McCain,” New York Post, 5/19/07)
In 2000, Sen. McCain Ran An Attack Ad Comparing Then-Gov. George W. Bush To Bill Clinton. SEN. MCCAIN: “I guess it was bound to happen. Governor Bush’s campaign is getting desperate, with a negative ad about me. The fact is, I’ll use the surplus money to fix Social Security, cut your taxes and pay down the debt. Governor Bush uses all of the surplus for tax cuts, with not one new penny for Social Security or the debt. His ad twists the truth like Clinton. We’re all pretty tired of that. As president, I’ll be conservative and always tell you the truth. No matter what.” (McCain 2000, Campaign Ad, 2/9/00; www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHoXkCprdL4)
Sen. McCain Repeatedly Called Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) nams. “Why can’t McCain win the votes of his own colleagues? To explain, a Republican senator tells this story: at a GOP meeting last fall, McCain erupted out of the blue at the respected Budget Committee chairman, Pete Domenici, saying, ‘Only an a–hole would put together a budget like this.’ Offended, Domenici stood up and gave a dignified, restrained speech about how in all his years in the Senate, through many heated debates, no one had ever called him that. Another senator might have taken the moment to check his temper. But McCain went on: ‘I wouldn’t call you an a–hole unless you really were an a–hole.’ The Republican senator witnessing the scene had considered supporting McCain for president, but changed his mind. ‘I decided,’ the senator told Newsweek, ‘I didn’t want this guy anywhere near a trigger.’” (Evan Thomas, et al., “Senator Hothead,” Newsweek, 2/21/00)
Sen. McCain Had A Heated Exchange With Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) And Called Him A “F*cking Jerk.” “Senators are not used to having their intelligence or integrity challenged by another senator. ‘Are you calling me stupid?’ Sen. Chuck Grassley once inquired during a debate with McCain over the fate of the Vietnam MIAs, according to a source who was present. ‘No,’ replied McCain, ‘I’m calling you a f—ing jerk!” (Evan Thomas, et al., “Senator Hothead,” Newsweek, 2/21/00)
In 1995, Sen. McCain Had A “Scuffle” With 92-Year-Old Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-SC) On The Senate Floor. “In January 1995, McCain was midway through an opening statement at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing when chairman Strom Thurmond asked, ‘Is the senator about through?’ McCain glared at Thurmond, thanked him for his ‘courtesy’ (translation: buzz off), and continued on. McCain later confronted Thurmond on the Senate floor. A scuffle ensued, and the two didn’t part friends.” (Harry Jaffe, “Senator Hothead,” The Washingtonian, 2/97)
Sen. McCain Attacked Christian Leaders And Republicans In A Blistering Speech During The 2000 Campaign. MCCAIN: “Unfortunately, Governor Bush is a Pat Robertson Republican who will lose to Al Gore. … The political tactics of division and slander are not our values… They are corrupting influences on religion and politics, and those who practice them in the name of religion or in the name of the Republican Party or in the name of America shame our faith, our party and our country. Neither party should be defined by pandering to the outer reaches of American politics and the agents of intolerance, whether they be Louis Farrakhan or Al Sharpton on the left, or Pat Robertson or Jerry Falwell on the right.” (Sen. John McCain, Remarks, Virginia Beach, VA, 2/28/00)
Celebrating His First Senate Election In 1986, Sen. McCain Screamed At And Harassed A Young Volunteer. “It was election night 1986, John McCain had just been elected to the U.S. Senate for the first time. Even so, he was not in a good mood. McCain was yelling at the top of his lungs and poking the chest of a young volunteer who had set up a lectern that was too tall for the 5-foot-9 politician to be seen to advantage, according to a witness to the outburst. ‘Here this poor guy is thinking he has done a good job, and he gets a new butt ripped because McCain didn’t look good on television,’ Jon Hinz told a reporter Thursday. At the time, Hinz was executive director of the Arizona Republican Party. … ‘There were an awful lot of people in the room,’ Hinz recalled. ‘You’d have to stick cotton in your ears not to hear it. He (McCain) was screaming at him, and he was red in the face.’” (Kris Mayes and Charles Kelly, “Stories Surface On Senator’s Demeanor,” The Arizona Republic, 11/5/99)
Sen. McCain “Publicly Abused” Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL). “[McCain] noted his propensity for passion but insisted that he doesn’t ‘insult anybody or fly off the handle or anything like that.’ This is, quite simply, hogwash. McCain often insults people and flies off the handle…. There have been the many times McCain has called reporters ‘liars’ and ‘idiots’ when they have had the audacity to ask him unpleasant, but pertinent, questions. ” (Editorial, “There’s Something About McCain,” The Austin American-Statesman, 1/24/07) /?p=161
Is it any wonder McCain has few endorsements from his Congressional piers? http://thehill.com/endorsements-2008.html
Best post I have read on F.R. since I registered.
This is the straw that broke the conservative movement:
“Unfortunately, Dr. James Dobson and a few evangelical leaders decided to cut off their nose to spite their face (Mistake #35). You see, Fred’s not a Bible thumper. Neither was Ronald Reagan. And like Reagan, Fred is a bona fide, all-around, federalist conservative. That wasn’t good enough for Dobson. And when Fred refused to kiss Dobson’s ring of evangelical purity, Dobson went shopping for a candidate he thought he could control.”
Dobson is a complete ass -— THAT was THE moment when the tide turned against Thompson.
Newt made a lot of mistakes (shutting down the govt and threatening to default was major no no)
Some of the conservative “mistakes” are actually consequences (3, 8, 14, 25 for example). Conservatives didn’t actually vote for clinton. well, if they did, we’re in really big trouble.
Fred made many mistakes too. He waited too long, hired Spence Abraham to be campaign manager, appeared to contradict the GOP pro-life platform and just gave the general impression he wasn’t really into it. And he justified that impression by dropping out. We were excited when he started to go after Michael Moore on his blog but he “fell asleep” until the SC debate and by then it was too late.
You left out Buchanan. He blew the Pubbies up in 1992 before Perot ever got a chance. With his sour face and angry diatribes, he became the poster boy for liberal fundraising. Bush I wasn’t perfect, but Buchanan did serious damage to the Republicans before leaving and then totally destroyed Perot’s Reform party, which actually had some momentum going to be a viable third party before Buchanan got there.
Well, what we got was a man who doesn't why his positions on things like open borders, campaign finance reform, No Child Left Behind Act, Prescription Drug Benifits - aren't conservative.
And unfortunately, the Commander and Chief is the one who embodies things like party ideology to the American public. He defines what it means to be a "Republican" to most Americans. And basically that means we have a party that stands for nothing because Bush stands for nothing.
My one slight disagreement is that I can no longer agree to hold my noise and vote for someone as lothesome as Romney.
I will write in Fred Thompson.
Losing power and elections is all the RNC can understand, so they need to know why they lost.
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