Posted on 01/10/2008 1:11:53 AM PST by Kevmo
What value were polls other than anti-democratic?
The polls had it wrong over New Hampshire. And it was polls that were used to exclude Hunter from the New Hampshire debates, the same debates which proved that polls were wrong. But poll results are still valid for EXCLUDING candidates like Hunter, who actually had a DELEGATE that REAL VOTERs voted for, while Rudy had NONE, but look at his polls! Now the same travesty is happening in South Carolina.
For the Republican side, half right is more than half wrong when you’re relying on the data to exclude someone from the process of democracy. And if they were wrong, how do we know they were right on the republican side? The prevailing assumption should be that they need to PROVE their data is reliable, but by excluding a candidate that could have done well in that state if he had access to the media, they AFFECTED THE OUTCOME.
CONSERVATISM vs. REPUBLICANISM
I don’t see how anyone can defend this action when it affects a conservative. This is a conservative forum, not a GOP one. It’s not just the GOP that’s jumping the shark, they’re taking Free Republic with them. On the latest poll, "I’ll vote R regardless" is leading the pack. I call people who vote this way UIN republicans, because they’ll vote for anything with an R in front of it, regardless of what it means.
Free Republic’s (1/9) poll on Republican candidates’ liberal positions that would be deal killers
http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll?poll=210;results=1
thread discussion
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1951136/posts
Free Republic used to be a gathering place for conservatives. Now it’s becoming a gathering place of republicans. Putting republicanism ahead of conservatism is the opposition to the aims of this website.
JimRob says, “We are conservative activists dedicated to defending our rights, defending our constitution, defending our republic and defending our traditional American way of life.” Freepers who are defending the fact that Hunter was excluded from the debates are in direct opposition to this tenet.
From the front page of Free Republic:
Statement by the founder of Free Republic As a conservative site, Free Republic is pro-God, pro-life, pro-family, pro-Constitution, pro-Bill of Rights, pro-gun, pro-limited government, pro-private property rights, pro-limited taxes, pro-capitalism, pro-national defense, pro-freedom, and-pro America. We oppose all forms of liberalism, socialism, fascism, pacifism, totalitarianism, anarchism, government enforced atheism, abortionism, feminism, homosexualism, racism, wacko environmentalism, judicial activism, etc. .... We are not connected to or funded by any political party, news agency, or any other entity. .... We aggressively defend our God-given and first amendment guaranteed rights to free speech, free press, free religion, and freedom of association, as well as our constitutional right to control the use and content of our own personal private property. Despite the wailing of the liberal trolls and other doom & gloom naysayers, we feel no compelling need to allow them a platform to promote their repugnant and obnoxious propaganda from our forum. Free Republic is not a liberal debating society. We are conservative activists dedicated to defending our rights, defending our constitution, defending our republic and defending our traditional American way of life.
This is NOT a GOP website, it says so right there, we have no affiliation with any party... That often catches republicans by surprise.
CHANCES OF WINNING
For those who don’t think we defend the country by voting for people who have next to zero chance of winning , they need to realize that THIS IS COMPLETE BALONEY. Right NOW, on Intrade, the folks who make it their business to deal in “chance of winning” and make money helping others trade on those chances have Hunter and Thompson EQUAL in chance to win the president race.
chances on intrade -- snapshot http://www.intrade.com
2008.PRES.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.4 0.2 41936 -0.1
2008.PRES.FIELD
Field (any other candidate) to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.3 0.2 18051 +0.0
USING INTRADE RESULTS I know that many freepers do not view futures markets with as much confidence as I do. But many of those same freepers view Polls with confidence. The article below is but one example of how futures markets are more reliable than poll results.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Whenever I post results from Intrade, there’s often a back & forth about how this data isn’t reliable, it’s subject to manipulation, all that stuff. All of these items are discussed and explained on this thread.
Futures market data that has proven to be more reliable than polling data, which is why Rasmussen started using Intrade results on their website. Rasmussen is the first polling organization to start using and referencing futures market data. In particular, once you look at the data and the interface, you’ll realize that it’s just a frontpiece for Intrade.
“Our prediction market for Iowa turned out to be very accurate,” Rasmussen said.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1948537/posts?page=53#53
Rasmussen started using Intrade results.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945852/posts
THE PRACTICAL RESULT
The practical result was a failure in our democracy and it DIRECTLY affected the most conservative man in the race for the GOP presidency. By defending the practice, such freepers are betraying that they are a republican first, conservative second. Usually, it’s because this travesty did not affect their candidate. That is not how conservatism is forwarded. But it IS how republicanism is forwarded.
Hunter, as a result of this cascaded failure of democratic process, is excluced from the South Carolina debate. Recall that Hunter had a statistical tie with Giuliani for the lead in the Spartanburg straw poll. But for the media, that doesn’t mean anything, poll results that they decide are important are the ones being used. Is this what the primary process was designed to do, this early in the game? NO!
Six candidates to participate in historic 2008 S.C. GOP Presidential Candidates Debate (No Hunter)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1950953/posts
Everyone on FR, anyone that calls themselves a conservative or an American should be outraged. But Free Republic has changed. It looks more each day like a de facto branch of the GOP. There will not be this outrage that once characterized Freepers, because this travesty favors their guy. One more nail in the coffin for conservatism, delivered and gift wrapped by the GOP.
If Thompson drops out, will he most likely endorse his friend McCain? If he does endorse McCain, how will Thompson followers feel? Do most freepers feel that such an endorsement would be a good thing or a bad thing? If such a thing as the exclusion from debates happened to your candidate, what would you expect from the GOP, as well as from Freepers? When you see that not taking place, would that change the way you view Free Republic, as a bastion of conservatism? If Hunter drops out, he’ll most likely endorse Fred. If Hunter drops, then Fred drops, we will all be pissed if the first scenario comes true, and there is no conservative in the race.
I hear........he did the best he could have working with a liberal legislature. Well what do you think is present in WA? We do not, and cannot count on having in ‘08, a majority in Congress. Changes in views are one thing, drastic changes in core values are another. Romney’s history is in direct conflict with what he now espouses. Sorry, I cannot (not will not, cannot) support Romney.
“If Hunter drops out, he’ll most likely endorse Fred. If Hunter drops, then Fred drops, we will all be pissed if the first scenario comes true, and there is no conservative in the race.”
Yes, I’ll be “pissed”.
Then again I’ve been steadily getting more and more jaded.
I’m here in Minnesota and we have McCains main man here, Gov. Pawlenty, a RINO’S RINO if ever there was one.
So in that respect I should be gratefull.
At least I’ve been “Broken in” already.
If anyone needs to borrow my vaseline, lemme know.
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There is even more to it than that.
http://blog.barofintegrity.us/2008/01/10/fox-news-is-skewing-early-gop-primaries.aspx
Fox News Is Skewing Early GOP Primaries
That answer is disturbing, but it's only around 25%, and the other answers may be split because they were written in a confusing manner (i.e., "does this mean that it would take at least 3 of these to disqualify a candidate, or does it mean that there are at least 3 things on this list each of which alone would do so?").
I've been on this site longer than you and will put my conservative credentials up against yours anytime. I don't need you to tell me what the focus of FR is. The only thing I gather from reading your posts is that you can't stand anyone disagreeing with you.
If no one is welcome here anymore but conservatives who pass your litmus test or agrees with you ("Spout your garbage on a GOP website")then Jim might as well shut this place down.
Excellent post. However, I think JR has encouraged the “small tent” conservativism that seems to be taking over. I cannot fathom why.
A lot of us were pretty upset by PAGOP for what they did to Pat Toomey.
No wonder conservatives aren’t interested in running in PA. The Republican leadership has been infiltrated by rats and RINO’s.
It's a shame that someone registered and never used the name to make a single post.
I agree that we need to coalesce around one candidate, but what does being in the manufactured "viable" and "top rank" category have to do with knowledge, adherence and experience in any of the 3 branches of the GOP you stated? We should be coalescing around the BEST candidate.
DUNCAN HUNTER is the ONLY candidate that meets the requirements.
We are in a war for our very survival, as a nation and a civilization! I want someone with the experience, knowledge, courage and integrity to fight the WOT to VICTORY while supporting our awesome Military members!
If we blink and do not pursue complete victory, or worse, lose the WOT, NOTHING else will mean a dang thing!
There is ONLY ONE qualified to be Commander-in-Chief in these perilous times.
ONLY ONE has the courage to vigorously complete the mission.
There is ONLY ONE choice --- DUNCAN HUNTER!
Oh yeah! See my post #95.
Bookmarking. This is a good thread.
Excellent point! We all know the economy is good, yet all we here are the doom and gloomers. Once again, the enemedia is shaping public opinion.
visualops: “Last night, when asked about Fred Thompson in SC, Krauthammer declared he was “dead”. A week and a half before the primary, and you’ve made the decision for the voters of SC?”
Pundits are paid to make these sort of asinine statements. I generally like Krauthammer, but how is he or any other talking head qualified to say that? Kirsten Powers, for example, looks nice, but does that give her the power to predict the future? NO! But some viewers suck it up like it’s fact. If only 10-20% change their opinion, it changes the race (after which, the pundit will see a change in the polls and say the candidate is dying as predicted).
When a respected pundit says a campaign is dead, it drives people and money away. Perception is VERY important. So when people take pundits seriously, it ends up harming the very candidates the people think are best (but won’t vote for now because of a perception of unelectability shaped by the media).
People should look behind the curtain and ignore these Wizard of Oz media creations. They would realize pundits are normal people with no expertise outside of very small areas. If, for example, Krauthammer wanted to comment on writing columns or appearing on TV, he’d speak with some authority. If, on the other hand, he’s making a prediction based on polls, his opinion is no more valid than my neighbor or anyone else.
2. Pollsters can target a group of people they know will respond in a certain way.
3. Pollsters can structure questions to elicit a specific response(loaded questions).
4. Pollsters can eliminate from a poll any answers that don't agree with their point of view.
Sorry, had to make a minor adjustment.
We all give lip service to knowing these truths, yet lap up all the bogus information like a bunch of sheeple.
Really, really sad state of affairs.
haha the Mods would probably send me a “lose the tagline” note!
Ya know...30 years ago my mother would use that phrase, along with the Silent Majority mantra. While I recognize that vast gains were made to take back control of our country and values over the past 30 years or so, I do not see that taking 2 steps backward in the past 10-15 years for every step that had been taken forward is helping anyone or anything.
True enough, I was suffering from a classic bout of insomnia and wanted the two of us to spin this in my own special way. :)
Kevmo: “...with Team Fred practically gloating that their guy isn’t being made into sauce.”
No gloating going on over here. Fred and Duncan Hunter are pretty much in the same boat. Either one of them is better than the rest, but both are getting very little press. How can FReepers write, “Duncan Hunter is the best conservative” or “Fred Thompson is the only true conservative” and then not vote for either of them???
Even if neither one of these candidates takes first or second place, they can still build delegates for the convention, and delegates mean power. We don’t have to win per se, to pull other candidates to the right. In a brokered convention, coalitions will be formed and deals will be made. Bottom line: it’s not over by a long shot.
Well said, thanks for your response on this thread.
The media and party officials excluding certain candidates for whatever reason not only hinders the democratic process of the people from their right of considering all the candidates to make a well informed decision but more importantly is anathema to the intent of the Constitution.
***Well said. Basically what I’m saying. It needs to be shouted from the rooftops, which is why I’m opening a vanity.
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