Financial Market Predictions Today? (VAnity)

n/a | 11/08/2007 | Me

[RSmithOpt]

Any fiscally minded folk care to speculate on what the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P, Bonds and Currency markets will do today after the 'dip' yesterday??

[RSmithOpt]

Any fiscally minded folk care to speculate on what the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P, Bonds and Currency markets will do today after the 'dip' yesterday??

[Yo-Yo]

With the huge plunge yesterday, expect a dead cat bounce today.

[period end of story]

Up, down, up, down, up, down....fun stuff.

[biff]

The markets will desperate to get back something after yesterdays dump.

[neodad]

I don’t know, but I’m sure we’re doomed!

[RockinRight]

Either up or down. Or flat.

Mark my words. ;-)

Actually in all seriousness I don’t expect we’ll have big drops on some days...and some rises...I think overall the markets will be relatively flat as a trend but with a lot of day-to-day volatility.

[Sacajaweau]

From what I heard...The big deal yesterday was that it was still in a downward run at closing.

[icwhatudo]

Maybe someone with an econ background can help here:

If the dollar is weak then our goods are cheaper to overseas buyers and exports will rise?

If the dollar is weak and people the demand for them drops does that mean their “price” (interest rate) goes down?

If interest rates go down, people with ARMs and others can refi to lower rates thus bankruptcy goes down right?

If bankruptcy goes down, then the main cause of woe on financial markets (home loans to people having trouble paying them back) will also shrink right?

So if all these things are true (I am no expert-asking for others views on this) could the weak dollar actually be good at this time?

[shankbear]

Tank

[The Great RJ]

The run on the dollar in world currency markets doesn’t make much sense as the US economy grew at 3.6% last quarter despite the housing loan debacle. Could it be that anti-US speculators or perhaps George Soros are contributing to the dollar’s decline in an effort to damage the US economy or do I need more tinfoil in my hat?

[Reagan is King]

I closed out all my stock positions a couple of days ago. My risk meter was finally pegged. I usually like a lot of worry in the market but I don't like what I see right now. Of course, I've been wrong plenty of times in the past!

BTW, here's an excellent snapshot of the different sectors with a little commentary. Hope it helps:

Wednesday's Selloff Leaves Market On Weaker Ground

[sarasota]

Well if the lead story on the Today Show has anything to do with it, it will plunge.

[Axenolith]

If the dollar is weak then our goods are cheaper to overseas buyers and exports will rise?

No nation has EVER devalued it's way to prosperity...

[advertising guy]

exacly..aimless dead cat bounce to see what shakes

[IrishMike]

Expecting more slip n’ dip.

[RegulatorCountry]

Mortgage interest rates decrease when demand for treasuries is high, which decreases the yield. Since they’re dollar denominated, and the dollar has been tanking, demand for treasuries from outside the US should no longer be all that strong, although it has been for several years, helping to fuel the low rate environment, for better or worse. So, I wouldn’t look for a return to those incredibly low rates any time soon. Actually, I’m somewhat surprised that 30 year conventional is still hovering in the high 5% range, for people with good credit and a decent down payment. That’s cheap, historically speaking. Underwriting standards have been tightened too, and with good reason, so the pool of potential buyers or refinances has shrunk.

[Southack]

My oil stocks will go up. Coal, too.

[RSmithOpt]

Thanks....I expect slightly up in the stock markets today with bargain hunters sniffing around and optimism by some with the unemployment report (slightly positive) that just came out this morning. Commodities will rise in prices overall (food, energy, metals) as the dollar slipped to the euro 1 penny yesterday.

Amazing the amount of $$ of computer, staff, and software running tabs 24/7 to help the money movers pick their positions; and then there's last night's cocktail socials where things were said, not said, etc. Think of the movie "Working Girl" with Melanie Griffith. LOL!!

I just wanted to see the typical responses (up, down, flat) LOL!!!

So just what is Bernanke going to say to Congress today? I'm sure the spin will be slightly positive with a 'great deal of caution'.

[madvlad]

I predict....much pain.

MV

[jiggyboy]

If interest rates go down, people with ARMs and others can refi to lower rates thus bankruptcy goes down right?

No. Home loan rates are typically based on the 10-year bond rate not this "overnight" Federal Reserve rate. This 10-year rate has been let's say 4.5% +/- 0.1% for some number of months, including the time of both of these rate cuts (which totaled 0.75%). It sure hasn't dropped 0.75% since the first Fed rate cut on September 18:

The most charitable I could offer is that maybe some people can get a loan for 0.25% less than they could have before the rate cuts. That's maybe $50 a month on a $400K loan at let's say 6%. That's not going to be that much of a difference on a $3000/month total house payment.

Car loan rates are affected even less by any Fed action. And redit card rates are completely independent of any other interest rate in the U.S. -- they simply go up, period.

These breathlessly-awaited "rate cuts" are the Big Lie of Wall Street. It ain't doing squat for individuals.