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To: RSmithOpt

Maybe someone with an econ background can help here:

If the dollar is weak then our goods are cheaper to overseas buyers and exports will rise?

If the dollar is weak and people the demand for them drops does that mean their “price” (interest rate) goes down?

If interest rates go down, people with ARMs and others can refi to lower rates thus bankruptcy goes down right?

If bankruptcy goes down, then the main cause of woe on financial markets (home loans to people having trouble paying them back) will also shrink right?

So if all these things are true (I am no expert-asking for others views on this) could the weak dollar actually be good at this time?


8 posted on 11/08/2007 6:33:09 AM PST by icwhatudo (The rino borg...is resistance futile?)
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To: icwhatudo
If the dollar is weak then our goods are cheaper to overseas buyers and exports will rise?

No nation has EVER devalued it's way to prosperity...

13 posted on 11/08/2007 6:39:57 AM PST by Axenolith (Subduction leads to Orogeny...)
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To: icwhatudo

Mortgage interest rates decrease when demand for treasuries is high, which decreases the yield. Since they’re dollar denominated, and the dollar has been tanking, demand for treasuries from outside the US should no longer be all that strong, although it has been for several years, helping to fuel the low rate environment, for better or worse. So, I wouldn’t look for a return to those incredibly low rates any time soon. Actually, I’m somewhat surprised that 30 year conventional is still hovering in the high 5% range, for people with good credit and a decent down payment. That’s cheap, historically speaking. Underwriting standards have been tightened too, and with good reason, so the pool of potential buyers or refinances has shrunk.


16 posted on 11/08/2007 6:44:46 AM PST by RegulatorCountry
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To: icwhatudo
If interest rates go down, people with ARMs and others can refi to lower rates thus bankruptcy goes down right?

No. Home loan rates are typically based on the 10-year bond rate not this "overnight" Federal Reserve rate. This 10-year rate has been let's say 4.5% +/- 0.1% for some number of months, including the time of both of these rate cuts (which totaled 0.75%). It sure hasn't dropped 0.75% since the first Fed rate cut on September 18:

The most charitable I could offer is that maybe some people can get a loan for 0.25% less than they could have before the rate cuts. That's maybe $50 a month on a $400K loan at let's say 6%. That's not going to be that much of a difference on a $3000/month total house payment.

Car loan rates are affected even less by any Fed action. And redit card rates are completely independent of any other interest rate in the U.S. -- they simply go up, period.

These breathlessly-awaited "rate cuts" are the Big Lie of Wall Street. It ain't doing squat for individuals.

20 posted on 11/08/2007 6:46:32 AM PST by jiggyboy (Ten per cent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: icwhatudo
1. A weak dollar will make U.S. exports more attractive to foreign customers (we're already seeing the results of this through a huge growth in export volumes at most of our ports).

2. Conversely, a weak dollar will make it more expensive for Americans to buy things that are: (a) produced in other countries, or (b) produced in the U.S. but sold on a global spot market (like most commodities). This is what drives up the price of oil here in the U.S.

3. Declining interest rates only have a positive effect if there is someone out there to lend money at those rates. If a bank is offering a mortgage at a fixed rate of 5.95% but refuses to extend that rate to high-risk customers, then the lower rate won't do much to help fix the sub-prime mess at all.

38 posted on 11/08/2007 7:07:51 AM PST by Alberta's Child (I'm out on the outskirts of nowhere . . . with ghosts on my trail, chasing me there.)
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To: icwhatudo
could the weak dollar actually be good

That means your economy has some severe problems and is circling the drain.

63 posted on 11/08/2007 9:35:50 AM PST by RightWhale (anti-razors are pro-life)
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