With the huge plunge yesterday, expect a dead cat bounce today.
Up, down, up, down, up, down....fun stuff.
The markets will desperate to get back something after yesterdays dump.
I don’t know, but I’m sure we’re doomed!
Either up or down. Or flat.
Mark my words. ;-)
Actually in all seriousness I don’t expect we’ll have big drops on some days...and some rises...I think overall the markets will be relatively flat as a trend but with a lot of day-to-day volatility.
From what I heard...The big deal yesterday was that it was still in a downward run at closing.
Maybe someone with an econ background can help here:
If the dollar is weak then our goods are cheaper to overseas buyers and exports will rise?
If the dollar is weak and people the demand for them drops does that mean their “price” (interest rate) goes down?
If interest rates go down, people with ARMs and others can refi to lower rates thus bankruptcy goes down right?
If bankruptcy goes down, then the main cause of woe on financial markets (home loans to people having trouble paying them back) will also shrink right?
So if all these things are true (I am no expert-asking for others views on this) could the weak dollar actually be good at this time?
Tank
The run on the dollar in world currency markets doesn’t make much sense as the US economy grew at 3.6% last quarter despite the housing loan debacle. Could it be that anti-US speculators or perhaps George Soros are contributing to the dollar’s decline in an effort to damage the US economy or do I need more tinfoil in my hat?
BTW, here's an excellent snapshot of the different sectors with a little commentary. Hope it helps:
Well if the lead story on the Today Show has anything to do with it, it will plunge.
Expecting more slip n’ dip.
My oil stocks will go up. Coal, too.
I predict....much pain.
MV
Three-day weekend coming up.
In the Dow futures, significant damage has occurred. Expect the downtrend to continue. Use Fibonacci and 8ema entries for new shorts through the holidays.
Up.
Average investors haven’t dumped their holdings - only traders on WS and as I see it, as long as people invest in 401’s, IRA’s, etc. the money HAS to go somewhere, be invested in something and so the market will continue upwards with the occasional “buy now” hiccup.
But what do I know?
I think there will be a bounce, a sell-off, another bounce, then the market will end slightly down.
The “value” buyers will come in and buys some stocks, then the “traders” will sell off.
At this point, I’m not calling it a “dead cat.” There’s a bubble in oil, and in gold.
We are at the 50% retracement level from the August to October runup. As of a few minutes ago we are a bit below 50% and have broken through the down trendline of the retracement pattern.
The last hour yesterday looked like capitulation selling. bid/ask and tick volume did not move near as far for the last down movement as they did earlier in the day, and b/a and tick volume were diverging by the end of the day, and are today too.
As of now it looks like a bounce. But, how much of one I don’t know. I don’t believe we will see new highs for awhile.
It’s not a big deal till we hit about 1420 on the S&P. If we break that we will break thru the 4 year trendline of the monthly chart current bull market. Then it could get serious.