Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

[Salem]

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:



Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6^th.

Nothing.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

[Thud]

My Freep name is that of a family cat long ago who was a true klutz. “We kept hearing a Thud! followed by the cat sauntering off trying to convince us ‘I meant to do that’”.

[Thud]

The absence of evidence is evidence.

[Gengis Khan]

The height of crap in this article can be judged by the comment “Syria now “possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world,””......

[Gengis Khan]

“The Russians aren’t best in class in anything (well, except bread, but that’s not a strategic weapon, yet).”

Countries not matter how strong rarely venture through Russian airspace to actually find out if they are best in anything or not. And there is a good reason why they dont. Last thing one should do is judge the ability of Russian technology based on obsolete and substandard Iraqi or Syrian weaponry. Even Pakistanis (with American weaponry) get their @sses kicked.

[Camel Joe]

I wouldn’t snorkel in that cesspool without a sealed suit, the “crap” in the water will peel your skin.

[BIGLOOK]

Good name, Thud!

In the past Thuds were used as attack bombers and also as Wild Weasels. F-4s were used and later F-16s. The IAF raid had F-16s and F-15s which makes me suspect that the raid was much simpler and much more crafty than all the other speculations here.

The attack didn't come from the south, it probably came from the east. This would mean that the IAF overflew Jordan with tacit permission, entered Western Iraqi air space with US tacit permission and began a east to west run on Dayr as Zawr. Wild Weasels ahead of the F-15s took out the air defense in the area leaving the targets undefended and led the strike force across Syria all the way to the Med. Check the map and ranges. This is possible with tanks (reports that tanks were jettisoned over Syria) and a high speed run would catch the western based Syrian air defense units by surprise.

Doubt that the IAF would compromise their jamming technology when a beam rider could do the trick.

The vaunted Syrian air defense system is only as good as the people running them. While the IAF run to the sea would take some time, reports would have gone out from the target area and the Syrians would think hard about switching to High PRF.

[jonascord]

Now, now, I’m sure the fact that the StG44 and the AK47 both have a gas piston system on top of the barrel is purely co-incidental... After all, the AK has a rotating bolt, and the StG is a tilt delay bolt...

[Pride in the USA]

This warms my heart and gives me hope.

[Unknowing]

Dropping the empty tanks in Turkey may have been a red herring for a possible egress through Iraq. The Turks get to say they were surprised that their airspace was transgressed, and we get to avoid guff from the Iraqi leadersip for Israel borrowing their territory.

Imagine a stealth bomber dropping a load of empty fuel tanks over a desolate patch of Turkey.

I’m just sayin’. . .

[aruanan]

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types," some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

And they didn't work. SUCKERRRRRRRRRS! Paging Iran: Prepare for incoming.

[radiohead]

I guess you take the boy out of the KGB, but you can't take the KGB out of the boy.

LOL! How true.

[Fitzy_888]

This reference the Syria and it’s capital isn’t comforting:

Isaiah 17:1-3

The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from [being] a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap. The cities of Aroer [are] forsaken: they shall be for flocks, which shall lie down, and none shall make [them] afraid. The fortress also shall cease from Ephraim, and the kingdom from Damascus, and the remnant of Syria: they shall be as the glory of the children of Israel, saith the LORD of hosts.

Isaiah 17:13-14

The nations shall rush like the rushing of many waters: but [God] shall rebuke them, and they shall flee far off, and shall be chased as the chaff of the mountains before the wind, and like a rolling thing before the whirlwind. And behold at eveningtide trouble; [and] before the morning he [is] not. This [is] the portion of them that spoil us, and the lot of them that rob us.

[steve86]

A couple possibilities for the suppression of Syrian air defenses:

1) Cutting edge U.S./Israeli programs in remote digital signal injection, i.e. remote hacking of enemy control systems and changing code or simply "turning off".
2) A more political possibility: Putin was given some sort of ultimatum through back channels if he didn't shut off the systems. So through some backdoor, Russian technicians shut down the defenses.

I don't believe the air defenses were destroyed by bomb attacks, as this would have been observed and reported.

[Fitzy_888]

Isaiah 17:1-3

The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from [being] a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap. The cities of Aroer* [are] forsaken: they shall be for flocks, which shall lie down, and none shall make [them] afraid. The fortress also shall cease from Ephraim**, and the kingdom from Damascus, and the remnant of Syria: they shall be as the glory of the children of Israel, saith the LORD of hosts.

*Note: Aroer is east of the Dead Sea, in present day Jordan.

**Note: “The fortress also shall cease from Ephraim,..” Does this mean destruction or as in cease to be a fortress. Wgere Ephraim, later named Samaria, was captured from Jordan by Israeli forces during the 1967 Six-Day War, in present day Israel.

[steve86]

Also meant to add 3) Israeli Special Forces sabotaged the air defenses.

[M. Espinola]

"Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian system."

So who is the really enemy of Israel behind the obvious collection of killers. And the answer is........ Moscow. But what else is new since the Kremlin's communist tyrants have backed Israel's enemies in every major war and were even willing to invade Israel in two of those wars to 'wipe Israel off the map forever'.

This showdown has been coming for far too many years, far too many murdered Israelis gunned down or blown up by terrorists with offices in Moscow, Damascus and Tehran.

From Putin's controlled propaganda machine:

Mideast unaffected by Russian arms sales to Syria - Lavrov

[shield]

The back channel to the Russians/putin would have been what Bush has found out about the billions that putin has stolen from Russia. Bush told him he would be exposed IF....and there was a list that was given to putin. Looks like putin has met with those demands...

[SunkenCiv]

This is the oldest one of the three I’ve found.

[MinorityRepublican]

Putin would tell Assad to “f**k himself” while he gets on the phone with another Arab client.

[Rembrandt]

During Gulf War I, the stealth a/c was a complete shock and surprise to Saddam, Iraq and the entire world. Welcome to the next big surprise out of the bag of tricks that never stops giving.