Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

[Salem]

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:



Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6^th.

Nothing.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

[Wiz]

ping

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

I believe in creation, so I think evolution is a man-made story to take the place of God and his special act of creating the earh. In the same way, God tells us how the world will end in the prophetic verses of Revelations. The Global Warming believers have created a man-made story to tell us how they think the world will end.

I hope this makes sense. I prefer to believe God’s Word which has been shown to be infallible, not man’s theories, which have changed hundreds of times.

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

I wonder if he has Kleinfelter’s Syndrome.

[Kevmo]

Cool.

You might be interested in a discussion I recently where my reliance on the historicity that the crucifixion of Christ was the best attested event in history was labeled “psychotic”.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1898447/posts?page=229#229

[Walkingfeather]

interesting thought.....

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

I totally agree about forming a new country called Kurdistan. The Kurds deserve their own sovereign country after the loyalty and gratitude they’ve shown us. Assyrian Christians would be welcome there I am sure, giving them a safe refuge should they need it. They have been great allies. As for the Sunni/Wahhabists and Shias, they will have to fight it out or agree to get along. A free Kurdistan would help us with Iran and keep Turkey in line, too. No downside to it that I can see.

[Walkingfeather]

hmmm dont bet on it. Russia is one of the biggest arms suppliers to the world. This little raid just put them in a serious marketing tailspin. If the Syrians not only were blind but didnt realize they were blind then this was some serious military voodoo that happened.

You can bet the israelis and us for that matter have breached their borders for a while without any alarms going off since they had to travel so deep into syrian territory.

[Kevmo]

Kurdistan, the 2nd democracy in the Middle East. Wait, the 3rd. Israel, Iraq, Kurdistan. Then after that comes Persia and Syria or whatever those tribal areas naturally devolve into. The more countries (especially democracies), the merrier. America finally exporting democracy, I like that plan.

[Wiz]

I think Israel should not engage in a joint operation against Iran. Instead, while US attacks Iran, Israel has an option to attack Syria. US could deal with Iran on its own, and it is more effective for Israel to strike Syria soon afterward for its accessibility to Syria. For US, it would be much better to nail Syria, and Hezbollah in the area, so Hezbollah would not be able send reinforcement and supply to the Iranian force.

[lonevoice]

Oh, my. This is sooooo good.

[PapaBear3625]

To make the system completely broken down may need more than fancy countermeasures on F-15. What did Israeli do?

One possibility is a directed-energy weapon (like the Conventional EMP bomb)

[indcons]

Excellent read

[Gengis Khan]

Honestly I wont trust Syrian ability to do any serious damage even with hi-tech American air defense systems. Its not that the Russian systems are bad. Air defense systems are not some toys that you can just buy off the shelf and put to use. New systems have to undergo several rounds of trials especially in battlefield conditions which would be different in Syrian desert then those in Russia. Next you have to train your personnel to use the systems and also be able to carry out proper maintenance. Integrating and operating and a whole air defense network is among the most complex strategic operation. Its not just some piece of junk equipment but a whole defense/network infrastructure thats has several components thats have to work in coordination. A new system take significant amount of time and expertise to operationalize and thats true even for the most technologically advanced countries. You cant just buys some hardware from another country and expect them to work overnight under prevailing conditions.

[Gengis Khan]

Form the article:

“IDF: Syria’s antiaircraft system most advanced in world”

“Some of these missiles were snatched from the production lines even before being introduced into Russian operation service.”

Thats never a good idea considering India’s experience with Russian equipments. Russian systems even when sufficiently advanced have to go through several rounds of trouble shooting and fixing of glitches before it can provide reliable performance. And Russians have habit of bragging about their weaponry long before it has even reach a stage where it can provide the bare minimum functionality. Considering that off the shelf purchases were made in 2007, it would be highly surprising if that have the air defense network has been operationalized already.

[AmericaUnite]

Thank God for this good news.

[indcons]

Excellent points..I agree.

It’s either what you say or the Syrians are too dumb to configure/operate/maintain advanced weapons systems. Might well be a combination of both.

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

Sounds interesting... I’ll take a look. Thanks!

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

The Russian workers in the old Soviet Union used to say, “We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us.” The country has gotten marginally better since then, but old habits die hard. The Russians aren’t best in class in anything (well, except bread, but that’s not a strategic weapon, yet).

[sukhoi-30mki]

Typical hyperbole.From the Ynet article,the only new SAM systems,Syria has now ,is the SA-22 Pantsir & SA-24 short range systems,along with a bunch of SA-3s(1960s vintage) & SA-6(70s).There is no proof that Syria has ordered or has received S-300s.Even if they have,it takes atleast 3-5 years to build an integrated air defense system.

[Lions Gate]

I think Ahmed A Nut Job wants to go down as a martyr so he can get his 72 virgins. The best way he can do this is provoke a war with the U.S. & Israel before he is deposed from within Iran.

This was a great story today and truly the silence by Syria is deafening.

God bless America!