Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

[Salem]

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:



Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6^th.

Nothing.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

[arthurus]

futalistic

An interesting word. It might be a typo but the conflation of futile and fatalistic here is right on. I think maybe it is deliberate. And clever. I have added it to my wordbank.

[arthurus]

Alas!

[Fitzy_888]

I can’t help but wonder, if those fuel tanks weren’t dropped in Turkey...would this have ever been known?

It’s obviously and incredible embarrassment to Syria, Russia, Iran, and South Korean. Meanwhile, Israel and the US aren’t even compelled to justify it. Which means it’s probably totally justifiable.

Turkey may have been in the loop, were the tanks dropped there to gin up there cover story?

[arthurus]

incredible embarrassment to Syria, Russia, Iran, and South Korean.

I suspect you meant NORTH Korea. South Korea is probably joining in the group chuckle going on over here in The West.

[backspace]

I think Assad just needs to find a GOOD PR guy.... "The Zionist warplane are no match for our intrepid defense!"

[Fitzy_888]

Yes...”North”

[Mamzelle]

re: The Syrians are silent, the Iranians are terrified, and the Russians are mortified.))

Permit a small edit... The Iranians are terrorized--are they massing to do a defiant "Death to America" mosh pit in Tehran...

[kitchen]

Odd the only country to complain has been NKorea.

If you believe that destroying/seizing PRK material was the goal of the entry and attack then it isn't a stretch to believe the stories about PRK personnel on location. They're expressing their grief over the lost loved ones. Or, maybe Syria hadn't paid them yet.

[kalee]

You think the Syrians can get a refund from the Russians? They was robbed!

[BIGLOOK]

Were you a Thud Driver? There is a simpler analysis for this raid.

[attiladhun2]

I also understand that the Syrian nuke base was infiltrated by Israelis disguised as Syrians. They were able to steal some nuclear material, which was sent to Israel and analyzed. The analysis proved it came from N. Korea.

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

BTRL

[The Drowning Witch]

MAJOR PING

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

Boy your posts are interesting. BTRL

[Kevmo]

BTRL?

In the lexicon we have BMFLR, which is Bump for Later Reading, BTTT is Back to the top.

BTRL = Back To Read Later?

[goldstategop]

This is bigger news than in 1982. Then, Israel took out Syria's air defense system in Lebanon. This year, it took out Syria's air defense system inside Syria itself. Deep inside Syria. Iran can't protect its ally and Iran can't protect itself. The Israelis aren't saying because they don't have to. All by itself, the air raid was its own message to both the Syrian/Iranian Axis Of Evil.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[mamelukesabre]

Russia has always gone for quantity over quality
~~~~~~~~~~~~

Quantity over quality was the american strategy against the nazis in WW2. It worked that time. There is something to be said for “ease of manufacture”. It sometimes beats the cream of the crop top drawer stuff that takes forever to get out the factory doors.

[Kevmo]

p.s. what does your tagline mean? Sorry I’m so slow on the uptake.

[Southack]

"Or, did they bring back a trophy, is it an object, an individual, is it bigger than a bread box? Seriously, an air strike is one thing, but ground forces would require slow lumbering type aircraft, what’s worth that risk?"

Why do people say such things?! Dayr As Sawr, the site hit, is on an enormous river...yet "aircraft" are the only way in?!

Come on people, think!

[txhurl]

The facility even has an inlet from the Euphrates dredged up to the building. You could snorkle right up.