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Threat Matrix: August 2007
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Posted on 08/01/2007 10:32:19 PM PDT by nwctwx

:::FreeRepublic's Threat Matrix:::
Disaster Looms in Pakistan

Decorum was abandoned as accusations ricocheted between the wood-panelled walls of Pakistan's national assembly on Monday night. "Murderers! Murderers of innocent people!" screamed an MP from a religious party, his yellow turban shaking as he wagged a finger towards the government benches.

Five female parliamentarians, their faces concealed behind black and white burkas, slapped the benches with open palms. Another mullah stood up and started shouting. The speaker strained to maintain order.

Others were less captivated by the debate on last month's siege of the Red Mosque, in which more than 100 people died. One man snoozed at his desk. Across the vast hall others started whispered conversations. And high above them Muhammad Ali Jinnah, a dapper man with a pinched, clean-shaven face, looked on impassively from his giant portrait on the wall. Full story...

Critical Threats: Blank When None
Threat Matrix:
August 2007
Click for Color Code Information


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: adamgadahn; afghanistan; alqaeda; alqaida; bus; china; denmark; epr; ferries; ferry; florida; france; gadahn; gangs; globaljihad; hamas; hezbollah; hizballah; hizbullah; hlf; holylandfoundation; india; internet; iran; iraq; jamesujaama; jihad; jolo; mexico; morocco; ms13; pakistan; philippines; russia; syria; taleban; taliban; threatmatrix; ujaama; vatech; virginiatech
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To: All

ADDING on to post no. 814:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1875105/posts?page=814#814

#

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/08/11/eveningnews/main3158899.shtml

“New York Reacts To Dirty Bomb Threat”
(August 11, 2007)

NEW YORK

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “No one got a pass...”

Cindy’s Opinion: Good.


821 posted on 08/11/2007 5:49:03 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Cindy; callmejoe; Godzilla; Velveeta; nwctwx; Rushmore Rocks; MamaDearest; All
Meet the New Face of Terror
Sunday, August 12, 2007

The last thing that seven Iraqi policemen at a checkpoint in Ramadi in late July saw was a woman approaching them. Seconds later, she detonated her explosives vest, killing herself and everybody else at the site. Just two weeks earlier in Pakistan, some would-be female suicide bombers were less successful in martyring themselves. When government forces stormed Islamabad's Red Mosque, several women were among the die-hards hoping to make a stand. "We wanted to carry out suicide attacks . . . but we didn't have sufficient explosives," one woman later regretfully told the BBC.

Surprised? Don't be. Female participation in jihadist groups and operations has grown alarmingly in recent years. And unless we come to terms with the phenomenon, female Islamist militants might be an important part of our future.

Islamic puritans used to uphold a strong taboo against women's active participation in the holy struggle. In al-Qaeda's training camps in Taliban-run Afghanistan, wives were kept segregated from men, and the women's primary role was to groom their sons to follow their fathers. Moreover, many al-Qaeda members are rabid misogynists; just recall the will of the lead 9/11 hijacker, Muhammad Atta, which insisted that no women attend his funeral or visit his grave.

But since September 2001, women have become increasingly involved in Islamist terrorism. The most important underlying factor behind this troubling new trend is the jihadists' deepening sense that they are engaged in a total war against the United States and the Muslim regimes it supports. Remember, Osama bin Laden used to be a relatively lonely voice, arguing that Islam was facing an existential struggle to defend itself from the aggressive United States.

Excerpted

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/09/AR2007080900676.html

Musharraf to Address Jirga
12 August 2007

ISLAMABAD — Pakistani helicopter gunships launched new assaults yesterday on Al-Qaeda and Taleban hideouts in the mountainous northwest as President Pervez Musharraf prepared to address a peace summit in Kabul.

Cobra helicopters killed three suspected militants, pounding what was believed to be their base after a firefight yesterday in Mir Ali town in North Waziristan tribal district, the military said. “A security convoy was passing when an improvised explosive device planted by militants exploded, causing no harm to the security personnel,” chief military spokesman Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad said. “Armed miscreants then attacked security men with automatic weapons that injured a soldier. “In retaliatory firing by helicopters three miscreants were killed,” Arshad said.

The continuing violence in the tribal area comes amid a joint tribal gathering organized by Pakistan and the Afghan government in Kabul to discuss ways to counter the Al-Qaeda and Taleban threat. Musharraf canceled his trip on Thursday to the inaugural session of the “peace jirga,” which is being attended by around 700 tribal elders from the border regions. The jirga is scheduled to end today and the foreign ministry in Islamabad said late Friday the president had agreed “in principle” to address the closing session.

Excerpted

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=4&section=0&article=99697&d=12&m=8&y=2007

822 posted on 08/11/2007 6:13:38 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: backhoe; JohnathanRGalt; All

ON THE ‘NET:

www.ekhlaas.info
www.ekhlaas.info/forum/
www.ansar-jihad.net/img/ansar_r.gif
www.ansar-jihad.net


823 posted on 08/11/2007 6:18:13 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Oorang

Article Snippet from your post regarding New Face of Terror.

“Surprised?”

Answer: No, I’m not surprised because jihad is evil. The face of
evil is both male and female.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1876782/posts?page=40#40


824 posted on 08/11/2007 6:22:45 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: appalachian_dweller

“Being in the country, with plentiful food (deer, turkey, squirrel, grouse, etc.) and water (from a well), lots of guns and ammunition, I’m have a very good chance of survival. My greatest concern is refugees from the city. If necessary, lethal force will be used to protect this place I call home.”

I hope you’re only kidding. If this is the kind of America we’re supposed to be fighting for, I say “surrender”!


825 posted on 08/11/2007 6:32:23 PM PDT by GorillaMa
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To: Oorang; Cindy

“...the apparent evacuation of 28 of the training camps along the country’s northern border with Afghanistan”

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1879884/posts


826 posted on 08/11/2007 6:36:28 PM PDT by Domestic Church (AMDG...)
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To: Domestic Church

Thank you DC.


827 posted on 08/11/2007 6:42:43 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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Explosions Rock Islamabad
Aug 11, 2007

ISLAMABAD: Explosions rocked Islamabad Saturday, however, the nature and sites of the explosions are yet to be confirmed.

According to preliminary reports the explosions with big bang were heard in the capital and the details are yet to come. No loss of life was reported in preliminary reports. The police are locating the sites of explosions.

http://www.pakistantimes.net/2007/08/12/top13.htm#93

Pakistan’s Strategic Assets Completely Safe, Secure
Aug 11, 2007

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s strategic assets are completely safe and secure and the highest level of institutionalized protection is accorded to them.

They are under strong multi-layered decision making, organizational administrative and command and control structures since 1998, Foreign Office Spokesperson Ms Tasnim Aslam said while dismissing the concerns raised by certain inspired and tendentious reports in the western media about the safety of Pakistan’s strategic assets.

In a statement issued here Saturday, she said Pakistan’s command and control structures are not controlled by individual personalities but are institutionalized and multi-layered to ensure safety and security at multiple levels.

Excerpted

http://www.pakistantimes.net/2007/08/12/top1.htm

828 posted on 08/11/2007 7:22:55 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: Domestic Church

They have re-treated, they are preparing.


829 posted on 08/11/2007 7:23:24 PM PDT by drymans wife (They is nothing like the mind of a TM;'er)
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Pakistan: Are General Musharraf’s Days Numbered?
8/11/2007

Analysts are feasting on recent developments in Pakistan which is a complicated case scenario of a country on the brink of disintegration at best and literally a ticking time bomb at worst. Pakistan has nuclear weapons and some say it is increasingly falling into a state of anarchy. Meanwhile, the US is pondering taking action against terrorists near its border with Afghanistan.

Exiled former presidents including Benazzir Bhuto could easily muster support from the population and incite a popular uprising against the incumbent general Musharraf, who took power in 1999 in a coup d’etat. Discontent with the current government is growing every day among the Pakistani population.

The pressure’s on for President Musharraf, both at home and outside due to obligations to combat terrorism. A few days ago general Musharraf sent a strong message to the world indicating that all was not well when he cancelled a meeting with tribal leaders in Afghanistan, to reportedly make preparations for imposing emergency law. One day later he ruled out this option.

The desperation has been building in recent weeks. Pakistan’s leader has been looking to the outside world for support; frenetic talks with the US administration were followed by an alleged deal with the former leader Benazzir Bhuto. The upshot has been that Pakistani leaders themselves have subjected their foreign policy to a strict review. At the same time however everyone was aware that they were conducting the meeting as the all too familiar accusation that Pakistan is playing a double game over Al Queda and the Taliban was beginning to become truly damaging to the incumbent Pakistani leadership.

At a recent record long meeting of the National Assembly, the country’s rulers decided not to change one iota to their foreign policy course. Which is the direct opposite of US goals in many respects. It’s what struck a chord with the Pakistani population which is increasingly alienated from the incumbent governement’s policies. Foreign Minister Khursid Mahmood Kasuri wasn’t exactly talking to the walls when he listed ‘examples of Pakistani independent decision making’. He cited Pakistan’s disagreements with the US administration over the Iraq war, the Iranian nuclear issue, refusal to send troops to Iran, the planned Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, a UN Security Council resolution on the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by non-state actors, a comprehensive convention against terrorism, last year’s Israeli attack on Lebanon and the question of Palestine.

These issues have broad based backing of the Pakistan population which is increasingly loath to another tenure of a government that does not represent its opinions. Anti Western sentiment is growing in Pakistani’s, who are also angered over the vast amount of US sponsor money which goes to the military rather than to humanitarian aid. The ticking time bomb theory recently gained momentum all the more after the US threat to strike Taliban bases, talk that is also making its way into the rhetoric of the US Presidential election campaigns.

What came out of the record long foreign policy session of the Assembly can be seen as a roadmap for future developments. Outside meddling in Pakistani affairs is unlikely to soon be over whatever the political landscape turns out to be. It is closely linked with the islamic militants that live in tribe controlled areas like the North West Frontier Province. This is rife with al Queda backed tribal insurgency that spills over into Afghanistan.

Musharraf’s political opposition is mass supported and proposes Islamic government which threatens to retaliate the April storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad. Musharraf’s betting that he will be re elected by the outgoing parliament and provincial assemblies, but if this happens a popular uprising is almost surely going to take place. The President’s recent move to do away with Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry was met with fierce opposition which was the trigger for grassroots democracy movements demanding elections. These groupings claimed their first victory when Musharraf was overruled.

And if Musharraf had hoped for an excuse to proclaim the state of emergency when he sent armed troops to storm the Red Mosque, a move surely designed in part to appease the US, he miscalculated. Insurgency is only taking on a new sinistre edge as some 600 students have reportedly signed up as suicide bombers as a result. Every leader in the Islamic world knows what an uncurable situation this brings.

It’s ironic that Musharraf has made such an issue of sticking to military rule and his military uniform because despite the army’s support, many police nowadays in areas of conflict refuse to put on their uniforms because these make them targets of suicide bombers. Suicide bombings took off this year especially. Since January 21 attacks have taken place killing 225 people. The Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao was narrowly missed in March when a bomber blew himself up in Charsadda, not far from NWFP’s capitol Peshawar.

Some say the internal strife shows that Musharraf is getting a taste of his own medicine, because he allegedly sponsors suicide bombing missions into Afghanistan. But Pakistani officials accuse the Afghanis of the same crime.

Excerpted

http://www.globalpolitician.com/articledes.asp?ID=3240&cid=6&sid=20

830 posted on 08/11/2007 7:31:43 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: drymans wife

Has anyone here posted on the Jundullah tactic ?


831 posted on 08/11/2007 7:38:47 PM PDT by Domestic Church (AMDG...)
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To: Domestic Church

Thank you DC.

#

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1879884/posts?page=2#2


832 posted on 08/11/2007 7:45:17 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Domestic Church; drymans wife
Has anyone here posted on the Jundullah tactic ?

What tactic is that?

I tend to think that the Pakistan army is not going to be able to do much and largely doesn't want to do much with regards to the tribal regions. What's been coming from segments of the leadership seems to indicate that some large portions of the population would not support U.S. airstrikes against anyone on Pakistan's soil. Those in the camps would probably be aware of this sentiment (they know the local population likes them). Makes me wonder if their exodus is for other reasons...

They must have left because they expect to get targeted... whether they believe it's part of an operation supported by the U.S. to remove extremist elements or a retaliatory strike following something against the U.S. homeland is up in the air I guess.
833 posted on 08/11/2007 7:57:49 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: All

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1879940/posts

“Hezbollah showcases ‘divine victory’ over Israel”
middle east online ^ | 8/12/07 | middle east online

Posted on 08/11/2007 7:53:26 PM PDT by Flavius

BEIRUT

#

ON THE ‘NET:

http://memritv.org/subject/en/89.htm


834 posted on 08/11/2007 8:01:32 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: nwctwx; givemELL

From givemELL ‘s posting # 23 on:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1870960/posts

THE JUNDULLAH PHENOMENON at http://www.saag.org/papers23/paper2211.html

(b).THE JUNDULLAH IN UK? at http://www.saag.org/papers23/paper2285.html


835 posted on 08/11/2007 8:12:18 PM PDT by Domestic Church (AMDG...)
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To: appalachian_dweller
Hey, A_D...was just thinkin' about you. Hope all is well. I'm about to start teaching next week. The 20th is the first day the kids come back and coincidentally my wedding anniversary. This year my outlook on life is going to be a spinoff of that Mel Gibson movie from the 80s: The Year of Living Dangerously. For me, it's going to be The Year of Living Stress Free! This rumor....I'm not stressing. I've got my supplies and certainly I'm well stocked for defensive activities. I heard an outrageously erroneous statement today that a worst case scenario in Miami for such an attack is a 50 square miles for radiation hazard! Not from a dirty bomb using conventional high explosive. MAYBE from a tactical nuke that is detonated high in the atmosphere. If something happens, know that I'll be sheltering in place and my wife, pups and I will be fine.

The biggest danger from a so called dirty bomb is the explosion itself. A ground blast is going to shoot the material at most a couple hundred feet into the air. That particulate material will immediately begin settling to earth again. It will also be subject to the ground winds which if the thing is set off downtown are going to be brisk between the high rises. 50 sq miles? No FREAKIN' WAY.

836 posted on 08/11/2007 9:11:43 PM PDT by ExSoldier (Democracy is 2 wolves and a lamb voting on dinner. Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote.)
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To: neverendinghunt
Look, 3 dirty bombs would be pure chaos. and immediately shutdoown incoming/outgoing anything. i know you guys have touched on smoke dectors’ etc but whatif they have the high grade stuff? and gliders? wtf gliders, the remote controlled or the kind that 1 person uses which no motor?

First, you need a clear understanding of the 'dirty' bomb. The immediate destruction is caused by a conventional explosion. Mixed into this are radioactive materials. These will not cause mass deaths. They will slow down the clean-up. The dirty bombs have been over hyped. Remember, gliders can only carry so much. And not enough radioactive material to do much harm, only spread fear in the unlearned mind.

Debka is a rumor-intelligence (RUMINT) source. During the build-up to the invasion of Iraq, they were all over the boards with information, 99% of it wrong. But a broken clock is correct twice a day, so anything on Debka needs to be confirmed by at least one of the credible source before accepting it.

Yes, I think something is in the works. but that needs to be balanced against the idea that rumors and innuendo are also creating fear - which accomplishes the same.

837 posted on 08/11/2007 9:21:03 PM PDT by Godzilla (Be nice to your kids. They'll choose your nursing home.)
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To: celtic-cat; Cindy

Emptying the camp can either indicate major offensive operation underway or two, a fear of a military strike (either preemptive or retaliatory). The Taliban have had their clocks cleaned in combat in Afghanistan, so the trainees could simply be deployed trying to reinforce the units there until winter returns. Definitely something to keep one’s ears to the ground on. They learned quickly that if we are hit, we can and most likely will, strike their bases in Pakistan, irregardless of Musharraf.


838 posted on 08/11/2007 9:26:07 PM PDT by Godzilla (Be nice to your kids. They'll choose your nursing home.)
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To: Godzilla

Thank for that explanation Godzilla.


839 posted on 08/11/2007 9:32:31 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: nwctwx
Would the NYPD act on a debka report alone? The reaction stumps me in some way... Only 24 hours later we are hearing that security is being eased?

If they did the alert based only upon Debka, Bloomberg needs to get a new security chief. I suspect that there are other indicators, but lacking independent confirmation, Debka is questionable. Perhaps the relatively quick standdown indicates that they were too jumpy.

It warned the ambushes could “possibly be a rehearsal for a much bigger attack, possibly an attempt to completely overrun the post.”

Yes, probing attacks are probable, and if our military is aware of that, then that's half the fight. The Tali have walked into a rapid response meat grinder and taken heavy losses in these probes. Perhaps they are desperate for a win somewhere.

840 posted on 08/11/2007 9:38:08 PM PDT by Godzilla (Be nice to your kids. They'll choose your nursing home.)
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