Giuliani’ s Social Views Could Be His Downfall

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has led the field for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination in most polls of GOP voters. His popularity among the party’s mainly conservative base is founded on his image of standing tall and reassuring New Yorkers following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on their city, though some voters also know him for his tough-on-crime persona and efforts to rein in government spending.

But there are aspects of Giuliani’s record; his views, especially on volatile social issues; and his personal past that do not thrill conservative activists. In fact, some are inalterably opposed to him and vow to block his efforts to obtain the Republican nomination.

Though this potential downside has gotten some mention in the media, Giuliani has gone relatively unscathed by political opponents so far. But that is likely because he appeared to be genuinely uncertain about whether to plunge into a Republican nominating process that for decades has favored strongly conservative candidates.

But Giuliani moved closer to becoming an official contender for president this week — he filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission Feb. 5 — and it’s likely that those disinclined to his nomination will start probing his vulnerabilities before long.

The Giuliani campaign has shown, albeit unintentionally, that it at least won’t be caught unaware by any political attacks. A memo detailing Giuliani’s campaign strategy, which was apparently misplaced and leaked to the press, showed that his own campaign questioned whether his positions on social issues would be an insurmountable problem for the former mayor.

These include support for abortion rights, though he says he supports a ban on the procedure known as “partial birth” abortion as long as there is a provision to protect the life of the pregnant woman; general support of gay rights, though he says he is opposed to same-sex marriage; and gun control, also a red flag for many conservatives, but a stand Giuliani describes as fundamental to his successful efforts to sharply reduce his hometown’s crime rate.

The memo also measured the political baggage stemming from the fact that his spouse, Judith Nathan, is his third wife; his very public divorce from his second wife, TV newswoman and actress Donna Hanover, amid allegations that he already was romantically involved with Nathan; and his former business partnership with ex-New York City police commissioner Bernard Kerik, who pleaded guilty to charges of ethics violations last year.

So Giuliani — whose national stature stemmed largely from the label of “America’s Mayor” that was applied to him after 9/11 — nonetheless faces a significant challenge in winning over religious and other conservatives, who continue to be an essential segment of the electorate in the upcoming Republican primaries and caucuses.

Giuliani doesn’t need every conservative to support his bid, “but he can’t win without some level of support from the party base,” said Dan Schnur, a veteran California Republican political insider who in 2000 was national communications director for Arizona Sen. John McCain’s run for the Republican presidential nomination.

McCain, who according to polls and pundits is one of the other leading candidates for the 2008 nomination, is more conservative on social issues than Giuliani. But he also has a reputation for challenging Republican Party orthodoxy that turns off some conservatives, some of whom haven’t forgiven him yet for challenging George W. Bush’s status as front-runner in the 2000 contest.

Some conservative groups, publications and blogs have already vocalized their apprehension or outright rejection of Giuliani.

Mike Mears, executive director for the conservative Concerned Women for America’s political action committee, listed “high moral character” as the first trait on his list of ideal presidential candidate qualities. Though Mears said the group, with its stated mission to “protect and promote Biblical values,” has yet to completely evaluate the candidates, he did say that Giuliani’s support for abortion rights and gay rights are “opposite” to the beliefs of members of the Concerned Women for America.

Mears stressed that the group is not writing off Giuliani, stating that there is “always room for someone to change.” But he added that the group would require evidence of a change in order to feel comfortable about any candidate with a moderate record on social issues. Mears said the organization will look for ways to work with the eventual party nominee as well as the next president.

Other organizations express less flexibility. “There are some who say, ‘Well, all we need from Giuliani, for instance, is a promise that he’ll put in a judge that will be a good constitutionalist,’ ” said Connie Mackey, senior vice president of Action, the legislative arm of the Family Research Council (FRC). “And we would disagree with that.”

The group describes its purpose is to “educate the general public and cultural leaders about traditional American values and to promote the philosophy of the Founding Fathers concerning the nature of ordered liberty.”

Like Mears, Mackey listed the “sanctity of life” and the preservation of marriage as two major issues on which the group will judge a candidate.

“One’s voting record, one’s statements on issues that are of concern that affect the culture are very important to organizations like the FRC,” said Mackey, who added that there’s still a “long way to go” in the campaign.

Giuliani’s campaign aides contend that rank-and-file conservatives view the candidate much more generously than do some of the activist groups. In a memo authored by strategy director Brent Seaborn and released to the public last week, the campaign pointed to polling numbers they say show Giuliani with “strong approval among white evangelical Christians [76 percent] and self-described conservative Republicans [82 percent].”

The Giuliani campaign announced Thursday that Republican Rep. Candice S. Miller of Michigan’s 10th District endorsed Giuliani and will speak in his favor this weekend at her state’s Republican Party convention in Grand Rapids.

Miller served as chairwoman of President Bush’s 2004 campaign in Michigan and has a mostly conservative voting record that includes voting against federal funding for stem cell research, supporting a proposed amendment to the Constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage and supporting a ban on partial-birth abortion.”

Giuliani’s campaign also argues that one or two issues will not define the contenders. “Republican primary voters will choose their candidate based on a variety of factors and they will ultimately judge the candidate as a whole,” said Giuliani spokeswoman Katie Levinson. “Rudy enjoys strong support across the country within the Republican Party from people who share his views on a variety of issues and appreciate his strong leadership and his record of result.”

Several polls on the Republican nominating contest have shown Giuliani and McCain joined in the top tier of candidates by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who espouses socially conservative views but recently has had to explain the more moderate positions he took in his political debut — an unsuccessful 1994 challenge to Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Edward M. Kennedy.

Schnur said this lineup is ideal for Giuliani. “None of the top-tier Republican candidates are individuals with whom social conservatives are completely comfortable,” said Schnur. “Giuliani doesn’t have to convince these voters to trust him completely, he just has to convince them to trust him more than they trust John McCain or Mitt Romney.”

But for conservative voters who can’t reconcile themselves to any of these three, there are plenty of amenable options in the crowded Republican field. Among those appealing directly to voters on the GOP right are Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, California Rep. Duncan Hunter and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.

For now, said Schnur, Giuliani’s celebrity status as the mayor who lead New York City through the post-9/11 recovery efforts guarantees him prominent media coverage and more visibility than the lower-tier candidates.

Schnur added that the presence of one additional candid thing scares Republican primary voters more than the prospect of President Hillary [Rodham] Clinton,” said Schnur. “All three of the top-tier [Republican] candidates can use that fear as a way to convince more conservative voters that they’re palatable because they can beat her.”

This is a really good analysis. I like it because it makes the case for the difficulties the "top three" are going to be facing very succinctly withou bashing them.

I still don't think that pro-Rudy guys understand that the problem with Rudy in the general election is NOT a conservative revolt. It is that he will be unable to energize those conservatives to care enough over the difference and thus even go to the polls.

Everytime I make this point. I get Rudy folks asking me "Yea but will you vote for him if he gets it." Yes. Yes, I will.

I wouldn't be the problem for Rudy. The problem, again, would be those social conservatives may vote often but not every time. This would be one of those times where they are NOT going to be motivated to go vote.

Hate Hillary is not going to get it done anymore than Hate Bill got it done for Bob Dole.

My preference/bias is well known, I like Duncan Hunter. Name ID is only a problem in the rimary. The two major party nominees will all the name ID they can stand going into November 08, no matter who they are.

Everytime I make this point. I get Rudy folks asking me "Yea but will you vote for him if he gets it." Yes. Yes, I will.

I can't and I won't.

I've held my nose for other "Republcans", but Rudy is beyond the pale.

Anti-self-defense, pro-abortion, pro-pervert, pro-tax-and-spend.

Sorry.

I'll have to vote "Constitution Party", even if it's only symbolic.

I get Rudy folks asking me "Yea but will you vote for him if he gets it." Yes. Yes, I will.

Me too, and as you pointed out with Bob Dole, we are voting for a loser because it's a lackluster vote.

A lot of conservatives will stay home, not out of anger, but simple lacke of interest in voting for the least of two evils.

Fred Barnes on Brit Hume's "Panel" last night said the current analyses of Rudy's "social problems" are mainly coming from liberals (e.g. the New Republic) and that he has been warmly received whenever he has appeared before groups of Evangelicals.

As it appears that the Witch is going to get the Dim nomination, there is a real danger that she will be elected (Gore won the popular vote, and even Kerry would have won had he gotten Ohio - and Ohio just dumped DeWine for a left-wing Senator.) It is certainly possible that the prospect of the Witch will energize the conservative base and overcome whatever reservations there may be about Rudy's social positions.

If I could appoint a President (but that would take a Constitutional amendment not likely to be forthcoming) it would be Newt.

If Rudy gets the nod ... it will because of his proven leadership under fire. We are facing an implacable foe who means to kill us. Make no mistake, the Islamo-Nazis are perhaps a more determined foe than the Nazis of WW2. Until this threat is eliminated, the partisan bickering should cease. This country is in deep denial. As a NY-er, having lived through the nightmare that was 9-11, I truly fear it might take another catastrophic attack to wake us up. I do not denigrate the virtues of any position, candidate or issues, but I do mean to remind all who "live" here of a dangerous lack of focus.

OK, I'm done now.

Please stop trashing Rudy and pushing a unknown congressman.
Repub have got to stop destroying our own .
Do you know what the implication of a dem victory and control over all THREE houses would be ?
Free republic and talk radio would be shut down !
Think about that while you go on and on and on with the Rudy trashing. He is a decent guy and will protect our freedom of speech which is will be taken away in 2008 if Hillary is in charge !

From the second paragraph. "do not thrill conservative activists." No need to read further

Why are consrvatives who disagree with the social side of a candidate considered activists? The way one conducts their personal business and family life has a great deal of significance on their degree of dedication and how well they play with others close to them.

This is mainstream resistance and not a few dissenters.
Gulliani is a MSM darling, part of the MSM Presidential candidate draft. CAndidates who make tough decisions and stand behind them are not welcome.

If November comes around and Rudy is the GOP nominee you should vote for him. Failing to do so (including voting for someone in the Constitution Party) is to vote perhaps for a more Conservative candidate but at the same time for a more liberal America.

To fail to vote for the GOP nominee in 2008 is voting for Anti-self-defense, pro-abortion, pro-pervert, pro-tax-and-spend.

All of these things will be more prevalent under a Democratic President than ANY Republican president. There will only be TWO candidates in the race.

Others will be on the ballot but only TWO in the race. My duty is to vote for the one which is going to move the Conservative agenda forward best. No matter who we nominate, that means the GOP candidate.

In 15 or 20 years, the situation may be different.

A lot of people feel the way you do. That's why shoving Rudy down our throats is another LOSING strategery for the GOP.

Passion is on the side of the real conservatives - we need to work like all-get-out to get our candidates' names out there.

GO DUNCAN HUNTER!!!

I'll vote for Rudy in the general election. If I have to. I guess. If he runs on the War on Terror and cutting Federal spending and waste.

In the meantime, I'm going to do everything I can to keep him from getting to the general election. He should be a Democrat, blast it.

Please stop telling us that our candidate has already been picked.

If we want to get a grassroots movement out for a candidate we like - that's our business.

Stop trying to blackmail me into voting for someone I don't like before the primaries have even happened.

You are the one with the defeatist attitude.

Don't be done now.

You were just getting warmed up.

Symbolic, coupled with pouting and apathy, is what got us to the point where we are now: Pelosi and Murtha harranguing the Pentagon in public, a moslem on the Judiciary Committee and all manner of other sleaze too numerous to mention. So you keep right on with symbolic.

To fail to vote for the GOP nominee in 2008 is voting for Anti-self-defense, pro-abortion, pro-pervert, pro-tax-and-spend.
No offense, but voting for Rudy is voting for all but the last... and the GOP itself has pretty much been pro-spendspendspend

I understand the shortcomings our party is dealing with. In November though you have a choice between two and only two. The democratic candidate, in every case, will be worse on those issues than the GOP candidate.

I like Duncan Hunter. I will work for Duncan Hunter.

If he wins the GOP primary. I will vote FOR Duncan Hunter in the General election. I will vote for the Republican Nominee in the General Election because in every case that person will deliver less of the socially depraved crap than the Democratic nominee.

My reference for this continues to be the likes of Daniel, Shadrack, Mishak and Abednego in the old testiment serving under a Pagan King.

Listen. This is the primary. They have primaries for a reason. The reason is to debate the merits and qualifications and desirability of the men that throw their hat into the ring. It is the time for the various factions to try to push their parties in the direction they want them to go. And I dare say that the majority of freepers want to see the party and its candidate move right, not left.

There will be an emerging challenge to Rudy and McCain from the right wing of the party. It might be Newt, or it may be Hunter (as I hope). It is going to happen, it is the natural thing to happen in a free society. If Rudy weathers the storm well and comes out on top, many conservatives will still vote for him, noses plugged or not. Others will not. But I tell you what, if Duncan Hunter somehow manages to get the nod, ALL conservatives will vote for him. Perhaps the Log cabinites will sit it out.

Everytime I make this point. I get Rudy folks asking me "Yea but will you vote for him if he gets it." Yes. Yes, I will.

I won't. If the GOP wants to commit suicide, they can do it without my vote. I'll vote in all the down ticket races, but I won't vote for gun-grabbing, pro-abortion, pro-homo-marriage, open borders, big government liberals regardless of party.

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