[GulfBreeze]

This is a really good analysis. I like it because it makes the case for the difficulties the "top three" are going to be facing very succinctly withou bashing them.

I still don't think that pro-Rudy guys understand that the problem with Rudy in the general election is NOT a conservative revolt. It is that he will be unable to energize those conservatives to care enough over the difference and thus even go to the polls.

Everytime I make this point. I get Rudy folks asking me "Yea but will you vote for him if he gets it." Yes. Yes, I will.

I wouldn't be the problem for Rudy. The problem, again, would be those social conservatives may vote often but not every time. This would be one of those times where they are NOT going to be motivated to go vote.

Hate Hillary is not going to get it done anymore than Hate Bill got it done for Bob Dole.

My preference/bias is well known, I like Duncan Hunter. Name ID is only a problem in the rimary. The two major party nominees will all the name ID they can stand going into November 08, no matter who they are.

[GulfBreeze]

Ping

[Westbrook]

Everytime I make this point. I get Rudy folks asking me "Yea but will you vote for him if he gets it." Yes. Yes, I will.

I can't and I won't.

I've held my nose for other "Republcans", but Rudy is beyond the pale.

Anti-self-defense, pro-abortion, pro-pervert, pro-tax-and-spend.

Sorry.

I'll have to vote "Constitution Party", even if it's only symbolic.

.

[Balding_Eagle]

I get Rudy folks asking me "Yea but will you vote for him if he gets it." Yes. Yes, I will.

Me too, and as you pointed out with Bob Dole, we are voting for a loser because it's a lackluster vote.

A lot of conservatives will stay home, not out of anger, but simple lacke of interest in voting for the least of two evils.

[Malesherbes]

Fred Barnes on Brit Hume's "Panel" last night said the current analyses of Rudy's "social problems" are mainly coming from liberals (e.g. the New Republic) and that he has been warmly received whenever he has appeared before groups of Evangelicals.

As it appears that the Witch is going to get the Dim nomination, there is a real danger that she will be elected (Gore won the popular vote, and even Kerry would have won had he gotten Ohio - and Ohio just dumped DeWine for a left-wing Senator.) It is certainly possible that the prospect of the Witch will energize the conservative base and overcome whatever reservations there may be about Rudy's social positions.

If I could appoint a President (but that would take a Constitutional amendment not likely to be forthcoming) it would be Newt.

[sono]

If Rudy gets the nod ... it will because of his proven leadership under fire. We are facing an implacable foe who means to kill us. Make no mistake, the Islamo-Nazis are perhaps a more determined foe than the Nazis of WW2. Until this threat is eliminated, the partisan bickering should cease. This country is in deep denial. As a NY-er, having lived through the nightmare that was 9-11, I truly fear it might take another catastrophic attack to wake us up. I do not denigrate the virtues of any position, candidate or issues, but I do mean to remind all who "live" here of a dangerous lack of focus.

OK, I'm done now.

[BurtSB]

Please stop trashing Rudy and pushing a unknown congressman.
Repub have got to stop destroying our own .
Do you know what the implication of a dem victory and control over all THREE houses would be ?
Free republic and talk radio would be shut down !
Think about that while you go on and on and on with the Rudy trashing. He is a decent guy and will protect our freedom of speech which is will be taken away in 2008 if Hillary is in charge !

[o_zarkman44]

From the second paragraph. "do not thrill conservative activists." No need to read further

Why are consrvatives who disagree with the social side of a candidate considered activists? The way one conducts their personal business and family life has a great deal of significance on their degree of dedication and how well they play with others close to them.

This is mainstream resistance and not a few dissenters.
Gulliani is a MSM darling, part of the MSM Presidential candidate draft. CAndidates who make tough decisions and stand behind them are not welcome.

[Little Ray]

I'll vote for Rudy in the general election. If I have to. I guess. If he runs on the War on Terror and cutting Federal spending and waste.

In the meantime, I'm going to do everything I can to keep him from getting to the general election. He should be a Democrat, blast it.

[Antoninus]

Everytime I make this point. I get Rudy folks asking me "Yea but will you vote for him if he gets it." Yes. Yes, I will.

I won't. If the GOP wants to commit suicide, they can do it without my vote. I'll vote in all the down ticket races, but I won't vote for gun-grabbing, pro-abortion, pro-homo-marriage, open borders, big government liberals regardless of party.

[The Great RJ]

Conservatives may have a simple choice: Giuliani or Hillary.

[Musket]

Nobody's perfect - except Ronald Reagan. Until our next RR comes along, we'll have to make do with what we've got.

[xsmommy]

i think you are exactly right. those of us who are on this forum, are obviously political junkies who are going to be motivated to vote no matter what. there are plenty of people who vote conservative, but are not your die-hards who will go to the polls no matter what. if/when rudy becomes the candidate and tanks, it will be those conservatives on this forum who will be blamed by the pro-Rudy types for being unappeasable and staying home, when in reality, it will be Rudy's failure to capture the voters who just weren't motivated enough by his candidacy to go to the polls. i am also skeptical that there are enough reagan democrats who will crossover to vote for him. i know everyone has their anecdotal evidence of knowing a dem who would vote for him, but the ones i know WON'T.

[sitetest]

"Everytime I make this point. I get Rudy folks asking me 'Yea but will you vote for him if he gets it.' Yes. Yes, I will."

No, No, I won't.

I won't vote for a pro-abort for president. It's not an acceptable choice.

[ElPatriota]

BEWARE!... Social-conservatives, Christian conservatives or moral-conservatives of ANY KIND..

*** WE NEED TO UNITE ***

WHO? I don't know, but here we are, in the middle of the Internet revolution, and yet, I feel as if someone, somewhere, is pulling the strings to elect a LEFTY 'Republican! (I still don't get used to the label /s).

I believe Guliani's CONSULTANTS team tactic is simply to DIVIDE the Republicans. Attract as many Lefty Republicans by painting Mr. RG as the CHAMPION OF NATIONAL SECURITY!... Just because, yes, He cleaned up N.Y. and acted with leadership on 9/11... Great as those things are, does not make him the Republican Presidential candidate by default...HARDLY!

And I should say, if he were a social-conservative (as DUNCAN is) THEN, I would be pulling hard for him!...But as it is NO WAY IN HELL I WILL VOTE FOR HIM!... Because if he gets elected, well, social-conservatives LOSE AND the LEFT WINS... That simple. All true social, Christian or Moral conservatives should above all, DENY out vote to the Left... And Rudy is the LEFT on social issues, and those are our issues.

[Melas]

My preference/bias is well known, I like Duncan Hunter. Name ID is only a problem in the rimary.

Actually, I don't think name recognition is going to be Hunter's problem. Primaries are expensive, and funding is going to be Hunter's problem. Hunter's anti-trade views are going to cut him off from business interests and their checkbooks.

[PDR]

Then again, it could be a huge benefit to the GOP and conservatives because, with Giuliani at the top of the ticket, states like Illinois, California, New Jersey, Delaware, Michigan, Connecticut, Washington and Maine (an EV vote rich bloc of late written off rather early) will be in play at the presidential level and give a lift to GOP candidates for the House and Senate.... without appreiciable damage to the GOP stronghold in the South.

[TheInvisibleMan]

Seems to me lots of posters are tone deaf to political reality.

Democrats win because they have unions, DBM and other giveaway recipients organized to "get out the vote" for them. These people have a network that goes back to the New Deal. When I lived in Chicago there were a line of buses stretched from the housing projects to the gold coast waiting to take people to the polling places. I never (over 44 years) saw a Republican "get out the vote" so well orchestrated.

I did notice, starting in 2004, that a lot of Conservatives were going house to house to "get out" Republican votes. I also noticed that these people did not seem to be very much centrally organized but were guided by different social principals...people who lived in the community. I must add that these people were mostly social conservatives rather than fiscal conservatives.

In Ohio (I don't live in Ohio) IIRC, 16% of black, in 2004, came out to vote republican because of a social issue that was on the ballot.

If we have a candidate that does not motivate the base can we get that level of "grass root" get out the vote? I don't know.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

I will vote for whoever the Republican nominee is, aside from McCain.

Rudy has the name recognition, the money, the leadership, the fiscal conservatism, the national security conservatism, and yes, he's socially conservative on some issues (welfare reform, speaking out against out-of-wedlock births & fatherlessness, poverty, quality of life issues, etc).

I am pro-life, don't think that homosexuals deserve special rights, & a proud gun owner. But please hear me out on this. The current Congressmen running for President did absolutely nothing about existing gun control laws. Nothing about abortion either. So how can you tell me that they're socially conservative when none of them introduced legislation (other than Hunter's pro-life bill just recently) or tried to resolve these social issues before the Supreme Court?

National security and economic issues are very important to most people. Rudy will likely address our burgeoning entitlement programs; what did Hunter, Tancredo, Brownback, etc. do to stop out-of-control entitlement spending and spending on other federal programs? You resolve these, you reduce the size of government and reform the tax system, the social issues will take care of themselves, and that's Rudy's strategy in a nutshell.

[right way right]

The election is a long way off.

I do not want to vote for Rudy.

Reason is that he is a Lib and we already have a Lib President and I had to vote for him twice.

I don't HAVE to vote for Rudy unless he is on the ticket.

I sure am tired of having to vote for a lesser evil.

[Salvation]

**Giuliani’ s Social Views Could Be His Downfall**

WILL be his downfall.