Democrats Leading Many Pivotal Races

AP via myway.com ^ | 21 October 2006 | David Espo

[YaYa123]

WASHINGTON (AP) - Democrats hold solid leads for four of the six Republican seats they need to capture the Senate and about 10 of 15 required to win the House, according to officials in both parties. Numerous additional races remain highly competitive.

After two weeks of adverse publicity linked to the Mark Foley scandal, public and private polling suggested partial recovery for some endangered Republican incumbents, and senior party officials made a concerted effort to project confidence.

"By many measures, there are strong indications of a right-of-center base that is engaged and committed," party chairman Ken Mehlman said Friday in a memo written for public consumption.

The assertion was a response to independent polls that show disapproval of President Bush's policies, including on the Iraq war, and discontent with Congress have made Democrats more eager to vote on Nov. 7 than Republicans.

[fschmieg]

Exactly!! This is the media, doing its partisan best to make their desired outcome a real outcome by making it the perception. DO NOT FALL FOR THIS!!! They think we are all stupid. They do not understand Republicans, especially not conservatives. We are a different species to them. Just go out and vote. They cannot win if we do not falter.

[Congressman Billybob]

I stay with my Labor Day predictions, that the Republicans will hold both the Senate and the House. My marker was for Rep's down two in the Senate, and seven in the House.

Keep in mind that every loss of a Democrat seat in either House means they must gain two others elsewhere to gain seats. Ignorant pundits keep pointing to the Gingrich landslide in the House in 1994. That was the ONLY time in the history of the nation that one party made all the gains, and the other party suffered all of the losses. That was the ONLY instance that the two-for-one logic of making up for losses, did not apply.

Just using the numbers as presented in this AP article, it is good news for control of both Houses. In the Senate, a win in either New Jersey (Kean) or Maryland (Steele) will guarantee the Republicans remain in control.

In the House, this article notes that there are several races where Rep's are now leading in efforts to take Dem seats. If the Rep's take just two of those, and all the other races go as presently presented, the Dem's gain only eight seats in the House.

I am not saying that this is in the bag, and there isn't hard work to be done. It is not, and there is. What I am saying is that reality is setting in, and the results are probably that Pelosi will NOT be Speaker of the House, nor Reid (the million-dollar man) be Majority Leader in the Senate.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "Recess at Salisbury State"

Please see my most recent new statement on running for Congress, here.

[fschmieg]

What the heck is your problem!! Stop it!!

[Dane]

Exactly!! This is the media, doing its partisan best to make their desired outcome a real outcome by making it the perception. DO NOT FALL FOR THIS!!! They think we are all stupid. They do not understand Republicans, especially not conservatives. We are a different species to them. Just go out and vote. They cannot win if we do not falter.

Excellent reply and also p!ss off the liberal media and vote GOP on November 7th to make them cry in their Starbucks coffee on November 8th.

[Northern Yankee]

Love your sentiments.

Exactly right!

[Hoodat]

It's what this story doesn't say that is important. With only four of the six Senate seats needed, and only ten of the 15 House seats needed,

the Democrats do NOT take control of either house.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Your problem is that you've been sucked in by the left winged media. The left winged media wants you to be down in the dumps. Take a look at any race in this country, and I've been watching my fair share of debates these last couple months. Every single Democrat is running on emotion. They have no issues from which to draw from, just pure emotion, all based on 6 years of Bush hatred, and months of goofy scandals.

[YaYa123]

Your # 13.

You are really on one of the front lines in this war. thanks so much for your report on what it's like. And thanks for all you do.

[Mamzelle]

re: Since the plan was to depress and suppress the R vote, they have to continue the game. We just need to vote.)))

I also wonder if this isn't a preemptive strategy to provide credibility to the inevitiable "we wuz robbed!"

They sounded like this in 2004, too, then started up with the accusations of 'foul' shortly after they lost. First, claim that they were winning--and when they lose, claim they were cheated.

[SmoothTalker]

Great post. I think many on here are too quick to dismiss some of these omens? Will we lose? Maybe. Maybe not but this is going to be a very tight election. The only way we win is by outworking them on the ground in the last two weeks like we did in 2000 and in 2004.

[CyberAnt]

This article is designed to make you stay home. They want you to think it's over and we might as well not bother to vote.

PHOOEY ON THAT NOISE! IT'S NOT OVER TILL THE FAT LADY SINGS - and anyway - the silent majority hasn't shown up to vote and we sure as hell don't participate in any polls.

Aside from that .. the dems are weighting their polls by 16% dems - totally UNREALISTIC - just like everything else they do. If they need to use 16% more dems - then we're winning most of the elections and they are lying through their teeth.

To me .. this is actually good news .. I think it's just another ploy from the media. Please .. let's not be stupid and buy into it.

[ReaganRevolution]

also wonder if this isn't a preemptive strategy to provide credibility to the inevitiable "we wuz robbed!"

Oh yeah, it's part of it too. They will never ever admit that the american people have rejected them and their ideas. It will always be a stolen election mantra.

[TitansAFC]

Dude,

I'm not getting sucked in by the left-wing media. I actually try calculating the polls with even turnout and try it from there, to compensate for what I think is purposeful oversampling of Democrats.

I'm telling you my anecdotal evidence. I live in Henry Hyde's district, IL-6. Peter Roskam is a popular Republican who has served the sixth district for some time now and deserves the promotion. Tammy Duckworth (Democrat) isn't even from the district and was propped here by the national Dems because she served in Iraq and lost limbs in the war.

It should be cake - Duckworth did poorly in the debates, comes off as rude in person, is clearly underprepared, and is outfunded by Roskam. The district has been safe for the GOP (relatively speaking) for some time now, and Duckworth disrespected a lot of mayors in the district by regularly skipping their debates and not even sending notice that she wouldn't show up.

Depite all of that - ALL of that which should add up to an easy Roskam victory, even the Roskam campaign is calling the race a "dead heat."

I'm telling you, BigSkyFreeper, it's rough. I can count the number of women in the targeted "swing" ground game who are going to vote Roskam on two hands (anecdotal evidence). The turnout in the district is usually 51% women. I go down streets where they had us posting Bush signs two years ago and they are saturated - SATURATED - with Tammy Duckworth signs.

The fact that this race is a dead heat with two weeks left - before the last barrages of "October Surprises" which will be bombed in the last 15 days - is frightenting. And I'm telling you, the ground game is rough.

The only true positive here is that Tammy Duckworth has no roots in the district, and has basically relied on automated phone banks and telemarketing. In other words, she doesn't have the same ground game as Peter Roskam.

But I'm telling you, even beyond the biased polls, I'm worried.

Anyhow, any more good news on Conrad Burns since the last Rasmussen poll? I could use some cheering up after hearing all of the lame excuses for not voting Roskam this weekend.....

[EQAndyBuzz]

"WASHINGTON (AP) - Democrats hold solid leads for four of the six Republican seats they need to capture the Senate and about 10 of 15 required to win the House, according to officials in both parties. Numerous additional races remain highly competitive."

So everything being equal, the Democrats are not in fear of losing anything.

OK, Dems pick up four in Senate and ten in house. Let's not have the election. The Republicans still hold both houses. Oh, I get it. It's a moral victory.

[LS]

Notice how they bury the real news: "private polling suggested partial recovery for some endangered Republican incumbents, and senior party officials made a concerted effort to project confidence."

Translation: The GOP is actually back ahead in most of these races and will be ahead in all of them by election day.

[LS]

Corker is safe. Talent is safe, and Allen is safe. Kean and Steele will win. Burns and Chafee have pulled to within 2-3 in their races. Only Santorum now is outside MOE, but moving up.

In the House races, we are moving ahead in most of the contested races---the three in IN, Reyonlds in NY is safe, and Musgrove in CO is safe. Carson (D-IN, incumbent) trails by 4 now; and both GA Dems are in trouble (Barrow, & forget the other guy). Bean will lose in IL. That only leaves us with 7 seats really to worry about, while we'll gain 2-3, maybe 4-5.

After factoring in turnout, we'll gain at least a seat in each house.

[LS]

Burns was only down 3 with the last poll, so use the LS rule and he's tied. (I understand that the LS rule has to be whittled down the closer we get to the election because the pollsters will try to get a little more accurate so they will come within the margin of error, and thus can claim accuracty on election day.)

I'm also on the ground in OH, and while DeWine is facing a tougher test than he should, all of our polls are showing the GOP "coming home" here in the last two weeks. I think mainly they just didn't want to be bothered earlier.

[AdvisorB]

Corker was up 7 points in the latest Zogby poll, and that was before Junior, panicked by the disappointing poll numbers, decided to committ political suicide by crashing Corker's Press Conferance on Ethics in Government. Junior will be lucky, after his petulant debacle, to be down by only 7.

[ClaireSolt]

Bear in mind, my friends, that these polls may be designed to extract one more contribution to pay for more advertising. The media is not a disinterested party.

[TitansAFC]

Hope you're right my friend.

;-)