Cooking the Polls: Democrat Oversampling Producing Phoney Results

www.seanrobins.com ^ | October 19, 2006 | Sean Robins

[seanrobins]

While it may appear that Republicans generally are getting hammered in a wide variety of polls going into this last month before the November mid-term elections, what is almost never explained by the pollsters, or their media conspirators, is that the polling data is deliberately skewed to favor the Democratic outcome. (Gee, who would have guessed?)

The scam is a simple, yet thoroughly devious one. The polling service simply "samples" a disproportionately large number of Democrats versus Republicans in its poll. Taking as an accurate generalization that Democrats poll one way for the most part, and Republicans another for the most part - such Democrat-oversampled polls result in Democrat-leaning results.

Today's case in point, brought to light courtesy of NewsBusters, is that of the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, in which 1,006 registered voters were questioned during the October 13-16, 2006 period, concerning a variety of standard political issues. The margin of error reported was +/- 3.1% Some of the "highlights" of the poll - those questions which were the primary object of the poll, included the following:

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing as president?
Approve	38
Disapprove	57
Not Sure	5

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing in handling the economy?
Approve	44
Disapprove	52
Not Sure	4

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that George W. Bush is doing in handling the situation in Iraq?
Approve	33
Disapprove	63
Not Sure	4

What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections--a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?
Republican-Controlled Congress	37
Democrat-Controlled Congress	52
Not Sure	11

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent?
Strong Democrat	21
Not very strong Democrat	7
Independent/lean Democrat	15
Strictly Independent	15
Independent/lean Republican	10
Not very strong Republican	9
Strong Republican	18
Other/Not Sure	5

This last question reflects the "heart" of the survey's demographic in terms of political affiliation. Note: Although respondents are initially asked whether they are registered - and only those answering that they are continue - the pollsters do not as specifically about party registration. The question is couched in terms of a respondent's views of him or herself poltically.

The results of this question demonstrates the skew in terms of Democrats vs. Republicans. 80% of respondents described themselves in terms of either being or leaning either Democrat or Republican - 43% as Democrat - 37% as Republican. This represents an oversampling of Democrats by 16 per per-cent. When coupled with the margin of error, this represents a very significant statistical advantage of Democrats over Republicans, due entirely to the composition of the sample as determined by the pollster.

What does this mean? Well, it is not possible to know with certainty what the results would have been had the sample not been so significantly skewed. In other words, we do not know how many Democrats approved or disapproved versus how many Republicans. Nor can we know which way - if the sample were not skewed - how the "extra" Republican opinions would have responded. However, we do know that it would have made a significant difference.

If we assume - reasonably though not absolutely - that the omitted Republicans would have said that they approved of how the President was doing his job, this would represent an 8% shift in the numbers. 38% approval and 57% disapproval suddenly becomes 46% approval and 51% disapproval. A five-point difference which, factoring in the +/- 3.1% margin of error, results in a virtual tie between those who approve and those who disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing.

Even more significantly is the change in the numbers on approval of how the President is handling the economy. Making the adjustment, a 44% approval and 52% disapproval, becomes a 52% approval and a 44% disapproval. A complete reversal.

As to the handling of Iraq, pre-adjustment it is 33% approval and 63% disapproval. Making the adjustment for Democrat oversampling, the results become, 41% approval and 55% disapproval. This results in an 11% differential when considering the margin of error. Not terrific numbers, but much better than what the pollsters would have you believe. Better numbers than this particular poll has reported in over a year. (Of course, without the sampling demographics for the prior NBC News/WSJ polls, we don't know how badly they were skewed Democrat.)

Finally, let's look at the most weighty question: The preference as to Democrat-controlled versus Republican-controlled Congress. The survey reports this as: 37% preference for a Republican-controlled Congress, and a 52% preference for a Democrat-controlled Congress. Again, the 16% skew in the sampling in favor of Democrats renders these results completely incompetent. Making the adjustment as before, the results change stunningly: 45% voice a preference for a Republican-controlled Congress, and 44% for a Democrat-controlled Congress.

"Fiddling the figures" in this one NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, simply by oversampling Democrats, leads to vastly skewed, erroneous and utterly unreliable results.

But this is what the mainstream media wants. Remember the old adage: Figures lie, and liars figure. That is precisely what is going on in this poll, and in the dozens of others out these the past few weeks which would portend doom and gloom for the Republicans.

[WOSG]

"Let me guess you are a Demonrat and actually think there are more Democrats than Republicans in the general population."

Actually, it's a valid question.
While the samples should be 'balanced' to reflect the real political balance, it is hard to measure.
What we do know is that party affiliation was running about even GOP v Dem (35% each) in 2004. So a poll that shows 43% to 37% party affiliation is either skewed to the Dems by about 6% or reflects a real shift in party affiliation (not likely but possible).

[YdontUleaveLibs]

Of course, it is a valid question. But, seemed to be based on the assumption that there are more Dems than Republicans. Unless, we know what percent of the population is Democrat vs Republican these polls are useless. I am assuming there is some growth in the Republican party based on the fact I used to vote Democrat, but I won't anymore and 4 of my friends have switched parties as well.

[april15Bendovr]

Are we seeing the Enron of Public Polling?

[NRA2BFree]

Hopefully, it will backfire on the RATS. Some of their most "intellectual party goers' may figure they don't need to get up to go vote since they are so far ahead of the Republicans. By the time they 'come to' it will be all over. LOL!

[TatieBug]

Thanks for voting "anyway" but I do think your vote has some effect since Arnold is doing so well and if we come out big, could get some good R's in the downticket...I believe the D's aren't at all excited about voting in CA. Arnold has a good get out the vote/Absentee Voting program working all over the state and it's encouraging. Out of thousands of phone calls, very positive responses and you could count the hang ups on one hand. VOTE< VOTE

[Thunder90]

Didn't all of the polls this late in '04 predict a overwhelming Kerry win? Didn't these same polls predict that the Democrats were going to take the House???

[hawkaw]

Thank you for this interesting read.

[EdReform]

bttt

[justshutupandtakeit]

Of course, you do. Percentages come from numbers or voters queried. Would you argue that 116 is not 16% greater than 100? It means the same thing as 116% being 16% higher than 100%.

[justshutupandtakeit]

You can figure out the degree of oversampling from percentages just as well as from the raw numbers from whence the percentages are calculated.

The point is that looking at 43% as only 6% greater than 37% is an invalid way of determining oversampling.

[LaceyU]

"Let me guess you are a Demonrat and actually think there are more Democrats than Republicans in the general population."

If you count all the illegals, there probably ARE more DemRats.

[kcvl]

Republicans too smart/busy to answer the phone?

Because it's none of their damn business! I have better things to do than answer some jerk on the phone.

[stockpixx]

I will be too but in KY-1 its a safe district... But I will be voting even if we have a snow storm (unlikely)