Posted on 10/09/2006 8:17:03 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
Control of the House is down to around 40%:
And the Senate is down to around 65-70%--it used to be at 80%!
(Excerpt) Read more at tradesports.com ...
How odd.
Never have the grass roots been needed like this before. Im cautiously optimistic-GOP retains..
The betting sites (like Tradesports and Iowa Electronic Market) can be pretty volatile, reacting to scandals in particular. But what we may be seeing is just a temporary Democratic bounce from the Foley scandal. It is unlikely that the bounce will persist until election day. Eventually, things will turn again in the republicans' favor (I hope).
Priam is the king of ashes, now that ten years' war is spent...
Fear not; it's always darkest before the Rove...
But this is all before Rove's October surprise. I think this is going to be an eventful month before it's over.
Would be interesting to see if anyone made insider trades on the Foleygate information...
It will rebound.
The Republicans won't lose either house of Congress.
As fast as its gone down, it will go back up.
The "October Surprise" needs to be a massive mobilization of patriotic Americans who are willing to work their hearts out to keep the Speaker's gavel out of the hands of Nancy Pelosi.
To count on some manipulated "event" is foolish.
How accurate has tradesports been in previous elections?
They seem to be regarded as more authoritative than regular polls -- Michael Barone cited tradesports in one of his recent columns -- but I wonder if they deserve to be.
I agree. All the Democrats braying is really grating. Today's pronouncement by Reid that North Korea's testing the nuke was Bush's fault was over the top. I am hoping that the Republicans will show up in force.
We should also remember that the party in power usually loses at least a few congressional seats in the midterm elections.
The 2002 election was highly unusual in that regard, because Bush gained seats. The question is, can he do it again?
"Republicans" are being punished to make the same social conservative base stay home in "outrage". The same social conservative base that supported "same sex marriage bans".
Republicans are being punished for having the wrong politics.
Foley is being punished for being a homosexual. But that wasn't enough to call for his ousting so they called him a child molester (which he was not). He left because he was outed and stepping down was the right thing to do (unlike Bill Clinton who bribed witnesses to lie under oath about his office sexcapades in a sexual harassment lawsuit).
Now Paula Jones may have been irrelevant to the case of Whitewater, but the same tactics of buying off witnesses and intimidating others (and smearing their names in print) were present in both cases. And when Bill Clinton's team went into COVER-UP, they did the same thing that Nixon did.
I don't suppose you've considered that Tradesports bases their predictions on the push polls and conventional wisdom of the beltway?
Here's a bit of remembrance. When the fake exit polls came out in 2004 not just Tradesports but the REAL stock market plummeted over a 100 points. They put their money where their mouth was too, but they put it on false data.
I really don't know why Tradesports is so popular among the political crowd, when the investors base their opinions on the notoriiously wrong conventional wisdom. They don't have the inside track as to which circle the public if filling, which name is having the lever pulled...
It's junk.
HH makes a good point on his blog-
say gbye to missile defense shield with Pelosi
If you look at the individual Senate races at Tradesports, then compile the results, you wind up with a prediction that the GOP will lose the Senate.
No, they aren't more accurate.
I just googled it because I remember 2004 and how lousy they called that one.
http://www.geekmedia.org/tradesports/
Tradesports had Bush getting 227 with Kerry getting 311.
Oh, yeah, and Bush lost Ohio.
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