I believe the conservative base will show up; the buyers and sellers at tradesports.com, who put their money at risk for this kind of stuff, feel less certain about it. Ugh.
To: Recovering_Democrat
They seem to be coming out with polls every 30 minutes or so. And all of the polls show that Republicans across the country are being punished because some Rep in Florida didn't have sex with an employee.
How odd.
2 posted on
10/09/2006 8:20:34 PM PDT by
ClearCase_guy
(The broken wall, the burning roof and tower. And Agamemnon dead.)
To: Recovering_Democrat
Never have the grass roots been needed like this before. Im cautiously optimistic-GOP retains..
3 posted on
10/09/2006 8:21:18 PM PDT by
cardinal4
(Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi..)
To: Recovering_Democrat
The betting sites (like Tradesports and Iowa Electronic Market) can be pretty volatile, reacting to scandals in particular. But what we may be seeing is just a temporary Democratic bounce from the Foley scandal. It is unlikely that the bounce will persist until election day. Eventually, things will turn again in the republicans' favor (I hope).
To: Recovering_Democrat
Fear not; it's always darkest before the Rove...
6 posted on
10/09/2006 8:24:12 PM PDT by
Solamente
(Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out...)
To: Recovering_Democrat
But this is all before Rove's October surprise. I think this is going to be an eventful month before it's over.
7 posted on
10/09/2006 8:24:58 PM PDT by
defenderSD
(CO2 is not a pollutant and I am not a polluter when I breathe....you hear that Algore?)
To: Recovering_Democrat
Would be interesting to see if anyone made insider trades on the Foleygate information...
8 posted on
10/09/2006 8:26:25 PM PDT by
weegee
(Remember "Remember the Maine"? Well in the current war "Remember the Baby Milk Factory")
To: Recovering_Democrat
It will rebound.
The Republicans won't lose either house of Congress.
As fast as its gone down, it will go back up.
To: Recovering_Democrat
How accurate has tradesports been in previous elections?
They seem to be regarded as more authoritative than regular polls -- Michael Barone cited tradesports in one of his recent columns -- but I wonder if they deserve to be.
To: Recovering_Democrat
We should also remember that the party in power usually loses at least a few congressional seats in the midterm elections.
The 2002 election was highly unusual in that regard, because Bush gained seats. The question is, can he do it again?
13 posted on
10/09/2006 8:30:04 PM PDT by
Cicero
(Marcus Tullius)
To: Recovering_Democrat
I watch these closely and this is not good news....and they are more accurate than individual polls; however, I think losing the House may not be the worst thing ever. Ford losing brought Reagan.....H.W. Bush losing brought us the House in '94. I think losing the House will bring us the White House in '08 because the Repub. can run against their loony agenda....and they will have a record to run against...unlike now.... Also, McCain and other "moderates" will get creamed if they side with these loons.....and, let's face it, the Repubs. in the House and Senate have acted like wimps.....so, I hope the House Repubs win....but it won't be a disaster if they don't....I would hate to lose the Senate though....that would not be good....
To: Recovering_Democrat
I don't suppose you've considered that Tradesports bases their predictions on the push polls and conventional wisdom of the beltway?
Here's a bit of remembrance. When the fake exit polls came out in 2004 not just Tradesports but the REAL stock market plummeted over a 100 points. They put their money where their mouth was too, but they put it on false data.
I really don't know why Tradesports is so popular among the political crowd, when the investors base their opinions on the notoriiously wrong conventional wisdom. They don't have the inside track as to which circle the public if filling, which name is having the lever pulled...
It's junk.
16 posted on
10/09/2006 8:31:29 PM PDT by
Soul Seeker
(Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
To: Recovering_Democrat
If you look at the individual Senate races at Tradesports, then compile the results, you wind up with a prediction that the GOP will lose the Senate.
19 posted on
10/09/2006 8:34:33 PM PDT by
freespirited
(A government big enough to give you all you want is big enough to take it all away.- Barry Goldwater)
To: Recovering_Democrat
People really bet on this kind of stuff? Is there real money involved?
22 posted on
10/09/2006 8:37:47 PM PDT by
mojo114
To: Recovering_Democrat
Just like the experts said that Baltimore would win over Denver.
To: Recovering_Democrat
To: Recovering_Democrat
Bush should just send the bombers into North Korea. There is no reason to wait. It is the right thing to do and the left won't like it whenever we do it so it might as well be before an election.
34 posted on
10/09/2006 8:50:59 PM PDT by
Maelstorm
(The one thing that is certain about politics is that nothing is certain.)
To: Recovering_Democrat
These polecat polls will be washed away by the 7 Nov. poll, the only poll that matters.
44 posted on
10/09/2006 9:01:40 PM PDT by
F.J. Mitchell
(Want to find a Mosque? Get your self a bomb sniffing dog.)
To: Recovering_Democrat
Let's hope Chaney has Osoma's dead body on ice and thaws it out a day or two before the election.
48 posted on
10/09/2006 10:35:03 PM PDT by
Herakles
(Diversity is code word for anti-white racism)
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson