[Yardstick]

How accurate has tradesports been in previous elections?

They seem to be regarded as more authoritative than regular polls -- Michael Barone cited tradesports in one of his recent columns -- but I wonder if they deserve to be.

[AaronInCarolina]

How accurate has tradesports been in previous elections?

Tradesports had Bush winning in 2004, but as an example of the volatility of these betting sites, it tanked for Bush on election day because of deceptive exit polling data that came out on election day. So it is generally a good barometer, but it is easily thrown off in the short term by such things as this Foley scandal. Let it die down for a couple of weeks, and things should return to normal.

[tenthirteen]

Michael Barone did not cite Tradesports in his column today. The site he cited was intrade.com. Same concept yet different spot.