World Terrorism: News, History and Research Of A Changing World #5

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The following items are terrorism-related items from the National Intelligence Council's "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts" report (December 2000).

States with poor governance; ethnic, cultural, or religious tensions; weak economies; and porous borders will be prime breeding grounds for terrorism. In such states, domestic groups will challenge the entrenched government, and transnational networks seeking safehavens.

At the same time, the trend away from state-supported political terrorism and toward more diverse, free-wheeling, transnational networks—enabled by information technology—will continue. Some of the states that actively sponsor terrorism or terrorist groups today may decrease or even cease their support by 2015 as a result of regime changes, rapprochement with neighbors, or the conclusion that terrorism has become counterproductive. But weak states also could drift toward cooperation with terrorists, creating de facto new state supporters.

Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties.

Experts agree that the United States, with its decisive edge in both information and weapons technology, will remain the dominant military power during the next 15 years. Further bolstering the strong position of the United States are its unparalleled economic power, its university system, and its investment in research and development—half of the total spent annually by the advanced industrial world. Many potential adversaries, as reflected in doctrinal writings and statements, see US military concepts, together with technology, as giving the United States the ability to expand its lead in conventional warfighting capabilities.

This perception among present and potential adversaries will continue to generate the pursuit of asymmetric capabilities against US forces and interests abroad as well as the territory of the United States. US opponents—state and such nonstate actors as drug lords, terrorists, and foreign insurgents—will not want to engage the US military on its terms. They will choose instead political and military strategies designed to dissuade the United States from using force, or, if the United States does use force, to exhaust American will, circumvent or minimize US strengths, and exploit perceived US weaknesses. Asymmetric challenges can arise across the spectrum of conflict that will confront US forces in a theater of operations or on US soil.

Some potential adversaries will seek ways to threaten the US homeland. The US national infrastructure—communications, transportation, financial transactions, energy networks—is vulnerable to disruption by physical and electronic attack because of its interdependent nature and by cyber attacks because of their dependence on computer networks. Foreign governments and groups will seek to exploit such vulnerabilities using conventional munitions, information operations, and even WMD.

Much of the terrorism noted earlier will be directed at the United States and its overseas interests. Most anti-US terrorism will be based on perceived ethnic, religious or cultural grievances. Terrorist groups will continue to find ways to attack US military and diplomatic facilities abroad. Such attacks are likely to expand increasingly to include US companies and American citizens. Middle East and Southwest Asian-based terrorists are the most likely to threaten the United States.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061003/ap_on_re_eu/hijack

By MAX FRIGIONE, Associated Press Writer 5 minutes ago

Two Turks who wanted to protest Pope Benedict XVI's planned trip to Turkey next month hijacked a Turkish Airlines jet carrying 113 people from Albania to Istanbul on Tuesday, and it landed safely in this southern Italian coastal city, officials said.

The hijackers, who were unarmed, told authorities they were prepared to surrender, said Candan Karlitekin, chairman of Turkish Airlines' board of directors. He said no one aboard the Boeing 737-400 was injured.

Istanbul Deputy Gov. Vedat Muftuoglu also said the hijackers had agreed to give themselves up.

Asked about the hijacking, a Vatican official said he expected no changes in Benedict's plans for the visit. The official, who asked that his name not be used because of the sensitivity of the issue, said an official Vatican announcement that the trip would take place Nov. 28-Dec. 1 would be made soon.

Benedict angered the Muslim world in a speech in Germany on Sept. 12, when he quoted a 14th century Byzantine emperor as saying: "Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached."

Benedict has expressed regret for offending Muslims by his remarks and said they did not reflect his personal views, but he has not offered a complete apology as some had sought.

Turkish Airlines officials had spoken to Capt. Mursel Gokalp and co-pilot Yavuz Yilmaz, who told them the hijackers were not armed and that the passengers were not in any danger, said Ali Genc, a spokesman for the carrier.

Muftuoglu said the hijackers stormed the cockpit about 15-20 minutes after takeoff from the Albanian capital of Tirana.

"They told the pilots that they wanted to carry out an act to protest the pope and that they wanted the plane diverted to Rome and that they (the pilots) should not resist," he told Turkey's CNN-Turk television.

Karlitekin said the hijackers declared that the would surrender "the moment they hijacked the plane," which carried 107 passengers and a crew of six. Most of the passengers were Albanians, Genc said.

The Turkish captain issued an alert that his plane was hijacked and he was contacted by Greek air traffic controllers at 5:55 p.m. (10:55 a.m. EDT), 15 miles north of Thessaloniki, Greece, said Dimitris Stavropoulos, spokesman for Greece's Civil Aviation Authority.

The captain told the Greek controllers: "I have two undesirable people who want to go to Italy to see the pope and give him a message," according to Stavropoulos.

The plane later contacted Italian air traffic controllers and asked to land in Brindisi, and it was escorted to the ground by two Italian military jets, according to Nicoletta Tomiselli, a spokeswoman for the Italian air traffic agency ENAV.

___

Associated Press writers Suzan Fraser and Selcan Hacaoglu in Ankara, Turkey, Derek Gatopoulos in Athens, Greece, and Maria Sanminiatelli in Rome contributed to this story.

Copyright © 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jtic/jtic050531_1_n.shtml

31 May 2005
JTIC Briefing: Post-millennium patterns of jihadist terrorism in Western Europe - Part I

By Petter Nesser

Jihadist terrorist conspiracies and attacks in Western Europe over the past few years have involved multinational, transnationally operating, ad-hoc jihadist terrorist cells that were either associated with, or inspired by, Al-Qaeda.

Weapons and modus operandi
The terrorists planned to attack these targets with low-tech weapons, mostly home-made bombs, and they often planned to deliver the bombs using suicide-bombers, a typical modus operandi of Al-Qaeda and its associated groups.

Terrorist suspects in the UK, Italy and France, and other European countries displayed an interest in manufacturing poison in order to use it in attacks. The militants' modus operandi strongly indicated that they had been trained in techniques of covert operations. For example, they all followed a set of similar security precautions such as having multiple identities, false travel documents, coding their communications and renting apartments on the ground level in order to facilitate an easy escape.

Cell structure
The cells were most often composed of five to ten core members, and varying numbers of affiliates. Although the core had a fixed structure, there were fuzzy cell boundaries. The conspiracies involved contacts and coordination between jihadists belonging to different terrorist cells in several European countries and often these contacts were based upon personal relationships established in jihadist camps in Afghanistan, or in the Islamist underground milieus of European urban centres. Individual terrorists, or terrorist groups, also maintained contacts with militants in other regions of the world.

Motivations for jihadism in Europe
The doctrine and idea of global defensive jihad against aggressors attacking Islam and Muslims stands out as the single most important motivational factor at the group level. Key operatives and leaders appeared to be ideologically informed and conscious about political matters.

My analysis indicates that political and military developments in areas of symbolic value and political grievance for radical Islamists are the most important as motivational factors for the terrorist group as a whole.

At the individual level, a notion of 'social relative deprivation', defined as raised expectations of being accepted as a fully fledged member of European societies, which was not fulfilled, seemingly played an important role in motivating young Muslim immigrants to join jihadist groups and become terrorists.

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http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jiaa/jiaa060809_1_n.shtml

09 August 2006
Jihadist forums and the evolution of a creed

The first tenet of present jihadist ideology is that early Muslim society, when Islam was dynamic and all-conquering, is the single, perfect model for human existence as represented in the divine revelation of the Koran, the acts and statements of the Prophet, and the conduct of 'al-salaf al-salih', or virtuous ancestors.

The second is that the only way back to this ideal is through jihad, understood as a war fought by any licit means against all enemies, infidel or Muslim, and viewed as the core obligation of all true Muslims at this historical juncture.

The third is that the enemy-world, "kufr" or unbelief, led by the Jews and US and abetted by quisling regimes throughout the Islamic world, is committed to the destruction of Muslim identity and the subjugation of Muslim lands.

The fourth tenet is that history, which began with the Prophet Mohammad's message but stalled when Muslims went astray after his death in 632 AD, stirred anew with the jihad that liberated Afghanistan in 1992.

The fifth is that the forces of jihad now stand arrayed to fight a decisive battle against the US empire, Israel and the quisling regimes of the Islamic world.

The sixth tenet is that the infidel forces, despite their apparent wealth and military might, are weak and vulnerable to blows of the sort Al-Qaeda struck on 11 September 2001. The lesson jihadists take from this last tenet is that faith and a firm hand on the trigger will topple their foes and ensure the global triumph of the true Islam of the Prophet.

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http://www.jamestown.org/news_details.php?news_id=200

Al-Qaeda's Top Ideologues Release New Statements on the Global Jihad

10/03/2006 - By Michael Scheuer (from Terrorism Focus, October 3) - The past week produced messages from the new leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, who uses the name Abu Hamza al-Muhajir and may be an Egyptian by the name of Abu Ayyub al-Masri, and al-Qaeda deputy chief Ayman al-Zawahiri. While there is nothing startlingly new in either message, both provide occasions for examining al-Qaeda's ability to stay on message, to learn from and try to redress serious errors and to deploy Islamic history and tradition in support of its case for a "defensive jihad" against the United States and its allies. Al-Muhajir was first out of the box on September 28 with a statement that again focused on al-Qaeda's efforts to mend its virulently anti-Shiite reputation in Iraq, as well as to solidify what apparently had become a shaky relationship between the group and Sunni tribal leaders in Iraq. Al-Muhajir's message appears to be a continuation of the effort he has made—and to which Osama bin Laden and al-Zawahiri have publicly contributed—to clearly distinguish among Shiites, between those who are supporting the coalition-backed Iraqi government and those who are neutral toward it or actively resisting it. He used the opening of the holy month of Ramadan to reassure the latter of al-Qaeda's willingness to live and let live, while offering the former a chance to repent, join the resistance and save their lives, but only if they do so before the end of Ramadan. (NB: This offer presumably also applies to Sunnis working for the regime.)

"I say to those traitors in this blessed month, the month of pardon and forgiveness," al-Muhajir wrote, "that we are declaring a general pardon for all of them, forgiving them for our blood that was spilled by your hands and your treachery. We welcome you once again. Return to your religion and homeland before we defeat you, and you will have peace and security. We will not touch you but with kindness. You must first declare your sincere repentance in front of your tribes and families and inform us by whatever means, lest we make a mistake [and kill you]. You should put your hands in the hands of your brothers and sons, the mujahideen, for peace and security to return to our homes and expel the invader and to expel the occupier from our midst in this blessed month" [1].

Al-Muhajir also took another step toward undoing some of the anti-al-Qaeda alienation Abu Musab al-Zarqawi had created in Iraq's Sunni community. Knowledge of those al-Zarqawi-created difficulties was boosted last week when West Point's Combating Terrorism Center released a December 2005 letter from al-Qaeda's headquarters in South Asia in which al-Zarqawi was warned that his approach to the war contained "negatives…things that are perilous and ruinous." The letter was signed by a senior al-Qaeda leader—believed to be a Libyan named Atiyah Abd al-Rahman—and included a judgment that al-Zarqawi might have to step down as chief in Iraq "if you find at some point someone who is better and more suitable than you" [2].

In his statement, al-Muhajir seemed to be trying to redress al-Zarqawi's failure to abide by an order contained in al-Rahman's letter; al-Rahman had written that al-Zarqawi was not to "to kill any religious scholar or tribal leader who is obeyed, and of good repute in Iraq from among the Sunnis, no matter what" [3]. (NB: There have been a number of such killings in Sunni-dominated al-Anbar Province since al-Rahman's letter was written.) Al-Muhajir confronted this issue directly on September 28, and strongly implied that the success of al-Qaeda in Iraq and, indeed, that of all the Iraqi resistance depended on the leadership of tribal elders. "My second message is to those who sacrificed greatly, and endured pressures of which only God knows," al-Muhajir said [4]. "To the tribal leaders who supported and stood by us in secret and in public, provided us with men and money, I say: May God reward you well. You are the people of chivalry, generosity, bravery and fearlessness. If one with knowledge and status swore that the most generous people among the people of the earth are the Iraqi people, I do not think he would be lying. The day will come upon you, o most noble sheikhs, when we will place you on our shoulders, nay on our heads, and say to the masses: These are our fathers, we challenge you to find their likes…"

On the heels of al-Muhajir's message, Ayman al-Zawahiri released a statement on September 29 entitled "Bush, Pope of the Vatican, Darfur and the Crusader Wars." Also taking advantage of the holy month of Ramadan, al-Zawahiri adroitly used his message to speak to the long historical memory of Muslims. Interestingly, al-Zawahiri directed his discussion of Pope Benedict's recent remarks about Islam—quoting the negative views of a Byzantine emperor—directly to his Muslim audience; the video ceased providing English subtitles when the subject turned to the Pope's words.

Al-Zawahiri took two traditional avenues in attacking the Pope's comments. He first dismissed any claims that Islam was in any way lacking in reason because it included the duty of jihad. Al-Zawahiri claimed that the reverse was true. Catholicism's claims to being a reason-based, monotheistic religion "cannot be accepted by a sound mind because it includes superstitions like the trinity, the crucifixion, redemption, the original sin, the infallibility of the Pope and the church's forgiveness of sins" [5]. This is the traditional Islamic scholar's condemnation of Catholicism and Christianity, and al-Zawahiri completed it by citing the revelatory nature of the Quran, and reminding the Pope that "the book he deems holy [the Bible] does not have an authentic source and did not descend upon Jesus [as did the Quran upon Muhammad], peace be upon him. Rather it is about what was written about Jesus, peace be upon him..."

Having pointed out the sharp differences between Catholicism and Islam—and having offered the Pope and all Christians a chance to convert—al-Zawahiri launched an attack on the "charlatan Pope," indicting him as one "who blasphemed God and insulted the reverend Prophet [Muhammad], peace and prayers be upon him..." Seeking to place the Pope's remarks in the context of perpetual assaults by Christendom on Islam, al-Zawahiri explained that the Pope's "insolence" follows in the wake of imprisoned and mistreated Muslim prisoners, the caricatures of the Prophet, Salman Rushdie's book and France's ban on the headscarf for Muslim women. The Pope's words, al-Zawahiri concluded, are clearly part of the medieval Catholic crusades that have been renewed in the form of the "crusader U.S. campaign against Islam and Muslims."

"The [talk of the] charlatan Benedict XVI reminds us of the speech delivered by his predecessor Pope Urban II in Claremont in France, in which he instigated the people of Europe to fight Muslims and wage crusade wars because the pagan Muslims, the enemies of Christians, as he claimed, desecrate the grave of Jesus Christ, peace be upon him," al-Zawahiri said. "He [Urban II] deliberately lied to the mob of the West and ignored crystal-clear facts; namely, that Muslims are not pagan and eradicated paganism wherever they go…He also ignored the fact that Muslims cannot be the enemies of Jesus Christ, peace be upon him, because they believe in his prophecy and consider him an apostle messenger of inflexible purpose…"

He continues, arguing that "the result of this charlatanism [by Urban II] was crusade wars that lasted for about two centuries and ended with the utter defeat of the crusader West. Benedict XVI fabricated lies against us, but we respond to this insult by benevolence, inviting him and all Christians to Islam...However, if they insist on their failed crusade war, let them have the same fate of Urban II and those who obeyed him and believed his lies" [6].

This review of the statements by al-Muhajir and al-Zawahiri are not exhaustive; topics such as Darfur, the role of clerics in jihad, the West's imprisonment of Muslim scholars and the Afghan and Iraq wars were also discussed. The issues covered above, however, are all central parts of the doctrine al-Qaeda has developed for trying to enroll the Muslim masses in the war against the United States and its allies: publicly admit and study your mistakes, and try to rectify them using Islamic themes; never forget the centrality of religion to the war and its unique ability to push your agenda forward and to help repair errors; and, in public statements, never forget the resonance and mobilizing power of Islam and Islamic history among Muslims. In their remarks, al-Muhajir and al-Zawahiri validated a point recently made by Abdel Bari Atwan, editor-in-chief of al-Quds al-Arabi. "People in the West do not often fully understand the deep connection many Muslims feel with their past," Atwan said [7]. "After centuries of decline, they view bin Laden as having brought hope and dignity back to a people under a shadow of humiliation and exploitation, and having squared up to the bullies of the West."

Michael Scheuer served as the Chief of the bin Laden Unit at the CIA's Counterterrorist Center from 1996 to 1999. He is now a Senior Fellow at The Jamestown Foundation.

Notes

1. Statement by Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, September 28, 2006.
2. Washington Post, October 2, 2006.
3. Ibid.
4. Statement by Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, September 28, 2006.
5. Ayman al-Zawahiri, "Bush, Pope of the Vatican, Darfur and the Crusader Wars," September 29, 2006.
6. Ibid.
7. Abdel Bari Atwan, "The Secret History of al-Qaeda," Los Angeles: University of Californian Press: 2006, pp. 40 and 66.

Posted By: Jamestown

1983-2003 © The Jamestown Foundation

Hi everyone,

Several of you that I have spoken with over the last few days (or remember from past communications) I have added to this particular ping tonight simply to let you know that I regularly notify people here on FR when I have updated my blog.

My usual offering of news links covers a day or two worth of links mostly related to terrorism, and other top stories from around the world. See this post for an example; "World and US News Links - September 25 and 26, 2006"

Please let me know by freepmail or a reply here if you would like for me to keep you on my list, otherwise I will not... (o: (YES, this is a self-promotion ping! LOL) If you all know of anyone else who you think may be interested please let them know, and freepmail me. (o:

Obviously over the last few days I have devoted my time to the horrific episodes of school violence. I am working tonight on producing a news links list that will cover September 27 to October 3rd and I will let those on my regular list know when that has been published.

Tonight though I wanted to post a "quick" message to let you all know that I have produced several "Focus Pages" at my blog which I will continuously updated as more information becomes available.

I am also working on a "Focus Page" for the latest tragedy in Pennsylvania, but that won't go online for another day or two. I do have updated information on my original post regarding donation information for the Amish Community as well as the Roberts children (the children of the perp).

Here are the latest links:

FOCUS PAGE: "Platte Canyon High School Tragedy Info & Resources" - The Liberty Rocks Blog

FOCUS PAGE: "School Shooting at Weston HS - Cazenovia, WI - September 29, 2006" - The Liberty Rocks Blog

"SPECIAL REPORT: Amish Children Murdered in Pennsylvania School Shooting - Lancaster County, PA - October 2, 2006 [INCLUDES DONATION INFO]" - The Liberty Rocks Blog

ESSAY: "Gun-Free School Zone Laws Put Children At Increased Risk" - The Liberty Rocks Blog

Have a good night everyone!

Take care & God Bless, LR

Fatah, Hamas Preparing for War With Israel

By Hillel Fendel

Hamas has smuggled up to 1,300 tons of weapons from Egypt into Gaza and is preparing for the option of launching a large-scale conflict with Israel. So states a Fatah report quoted by WorldNetDaily.

The weapons, WND reports, include between several hundred and 1,300 tons of advanced rockets; anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles; rocket propelled grenades; raw explosives; rifles; ammunition; and other heavy weaponry.

Israel has long complained that the arrangements at the Egypt-Gaza border crossing are not satisfactory, and that the European monitors are ineffectual in stopping the smuggling. Then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon agreed to the deal last November, after U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice arrived in the region and gave her stamp of approval.

WND's Aaron Klein quotes Abu Ahmed, leader of the northern Gaza chapter of
the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades terror group, as saying the terrorists are working towards, and succeeding in, turning Gaza into a Hizbullah-like threat against Israel.

"We learned from Hizbullah's victory that Israel can be defeated if we know
how to hit them and if we are well prepared," Abu Ahmed said. "We are
importing rockets and the knowledge to launch them and we are also making
many plans for battle."

WND also quotes another terrorist leader - Abu Abdullah, reported to be a top member of the Izaddin Al-Kassam Brigades of Hamas - detailing the preparations for war against Israel.

"In the last 15 months," Abu Adullah said, " though the fighters of Hamas kept the ceasefire, we did not stop making important advancements and professional training on the military level. In the future, after Hamas is obliged to stop the ceasefire, the world shall see our new military capabilities." He said that Hamas and Hizbullah, which has cells in Sinai, are cooperating in importing rockets and guerilla training.

no link e mail

Fox warns over Russian military

Liam Fox says Russia is stepping up defence spending
The UK underestimates the threat to its future security posed by Russia, shadow defence secretary Liam Fox has warned.
Addressing a fringe meeting at the Conservative Party conference, Dr Fox claimed Russia was increasing its defence spending this year by 25%.

It was also testing more long range missiles and pouring money into two naval bases in Syria, he added.

That, together with Iran's military build-up, justified replacing Britain's Trident nuclear weapons system.

Dr Fox said the Tories were committed to replacing Trident nuclear weapons and, with so much uncertainty in the world, he warned against embarking on a "potentially lethal experiment in unilateral disarmament".

He said Iran and Russia pose the most serious "potential threats to our interests".

Missiles

He said Russian President Vladimir Putin had spoken recently "of having armed forces capable of fighting a global, regional and, if necessary, a few local conflicts".

The shadow minister said he had been "amazed" by how little coverage Russia's new military build-up has received in the Western media.

He said the country was spending 25% more on defence this year than last year and is testing new inter-continental ballistic missiles, and ordering new frigates for its navy, equipped with cruise missiles.

The Russians have also reportedly invested in two Syrian ports, he added.

If they switch their Black Sea fleet there it would be their first Mediterranean base since the 1950s, said Dr Fox, who repeated his warning in a speech in the main conference hall at the Bournemouth conference centre.

'Influence'

He also said that, along with North Korea and China, Russia had helped Iran to develop ballistic missiles with a range up to 4,000 kilometres which "could attack US and British forces in the region".

And he warned of the economic power being wielded by Russian gas giant Gazprom, which he said was controlled by "extremely questionable oligarchs and politicians".

If President Putin went on to be the head of Gazprom after stepping down as Russian president, he would be able to wield a "great deal of influence" over neighbouring states, Dr Fox told the meeting.

"It might turn out President Putin is a cuddly bunny. It might turn out that he is not. We should be in the risk business," he added.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5403074.stm

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